Hawaii: Why are the polls showing * leading ? nt

[steve2470]

[Massacure]

1. It's an outlier

[ibegurpard]

2. I have two explanations:

faulty polling or deliberate distortions to mask voter fraud.

[Cha]

3. I don't know but when I said my son registered to vote

for the first time in Hawaii in September..I didn't know it was an all important Swing State!

[deadparrot]

4. *'s "lead" is 43%

Tons of undecideds, and that's only if the polling is accurate (which I doubt)

[Must_B_Free]

5. Hawaiians have an ancient tradition of being really stupid.

Example: they gave up marijuana to get hooked on Ice (crystal meth)

[Philostopher]

6. Over the weekend, someone posted the internals.

They talked to more Republicans than Dems. I'm not even going to waste my time looking, since the archives are locked until after the election, and this damned thing has been debunked at least half a dozen times now. Not necessarily grousing at you, steve -- but really. It's the skew of the sample, as is often the case.

[steve2470]

7. ok thanks for your time :-)

[bagnana]

12. those were not the internals!

I can't find the "internals" that were posted on this site anywhere else. There were some numbers listed in the paper posting the poll results, but they were not "internals" of the number of persons polled. These numbers indicated that approx. 43% of repubs would vote for Bush and approx. 31% dems would vote for Bush. They ALSO stated that 75% dems would vote for Kerry and 5% repubs would vote for Kerry. So how does that translate to "well they only polled 31% dems" which I have been seeing here? Does anyone know the answer to this because it has been driving me nuts! It would KILL ME if Bush won here. I would become a misanthropic freak -- muttering and suspiciously staring at all of my neighbors -- "did you vote for Bush???"

[Philostopher]

14. I'd look it up, bagnana,

but the archives have been locked to save the servers for the increased traffic leading up to the election. I distinctly remember someone who seemed knowledgeable offering information on the poll that seemed legit, saying it wasn't as bad as the Honolulu Advertiser said, and that Hawaii wasn't as close as all that -- that there was something about the polling process that they thought was fishy. They could have been wrong, of course -- maybe Hawaiians are as easy to manipulate as my neighbors here in Ohio. Money talks, I guess. Don't shoot the messenger -- I don't have access to the message.

[demwing]

8. All I know is I've been looking for a swing state to relocate

to from Utah

I thought it was Florida, then BAM times 4.

And now Hawaii wants to mix it up? Hell, I was unemployed in Utah for 2 years, I can be unemployed in paradise for two more!

SWING STATE HERE I COME!

[Cha]

10. I'm going back to that "Swing State" in

two years..two more New York winters and I'm outta here, dude!B-)

[demwing]

15. OK zidzi, a couple of old Deaniacs in Hawaii?

I'll meet you there in two years and we'll toss one back as President Kerry welcomes the new Dem majority in the House and Senate.

[Cha]

21. Aloha, demwing!

Which Island are you? My son lives on Kauai..where I lived from '92 to '98..and I'm going to the Big Island this time..a whole new territory to explore!

:toast: to Dean!

[demwing]

22. Last time round (83 - 89) I lived on Oahu, but not again

when I go back, I'm heading for the Big Island, maybe for Maui.

I have no idea what to do there, but who cares. Its Hawaii!

[Cha]

23. Cool!

Cheers to Healthy Island living!

[Thrill]

9. Don't worry

You don't see the campaign worried do you? NO. Because internal polling is more than likely showing a huge lead for Kerry

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. 'Polls' as in plural?

I have only one such poll.

[featherman]

13. Ain't happenin". One poll. Forget it.

[leyton]

20. Two polls...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/hi_polls.html ; one SMS, one Honolulu Advertiser.

[I Lean Left]

16. I think the polls were confined to Oahu

I think the other Islands trend more Democratic than Oahu. Might also be a larger military presence on Oahu. Who knows, there might be one of those 'gotta support the president during a war' thing. Having gone through a sneak attack in their past...

Can you imagine if the whole thing is nip and tuck and the whole country has to wait for the numbers to come in from Hawaii. With the 6 hour time difference, Hawaii would know it was picking the president while the polls were still open there. Unbelievable drama. Here's hoping it never comes that close.

[Perky]

17. its actually two outliers

Kerry is buying some air time out there...no one is terribly concerned because its a dead heat and it traditionaly democratic

besides I would be willing to swap VA or AZ for Hawaii anyttime.

[Zynx]

18. In a tied race, Bush is not ahead in HI.

It just doesn't work that way.

[mainer]

19. I lived on Oahu for 12 years ... I don't believe that poll

The substantial military contingent living there may vote GOP, but the locals are overwhelmingly Democratic.

[sr_pacifica]

24. The same observation I was going to make n/t