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Edited on Mon Oct-25-04 08:34 PM by TomClash
Rubbish. Here's his logic though he doesn't state it. Rove wanted 4-6 million new Christian right votes. Bush lost by about 0.5% of the popular vote in 2000, or about 600,000 votes out of 105.5 million. If * gets 6 million new Christian right votes, he wins by about 5.5 million out of 111 million or so votes - that nets him about a 5% increase in the vote. so voila - it's 52-47.
I don't buy it. Ok, let's say he gets 6 million new Christian rightist votes, though I think it's more like 3 million max (this is what the Mary Cheney thing was all about). I predict at least 120 million votes will be cast - about 15 million more than in 2000. The majority of those will go to Kerry, like 9 million, because we didn't turn out in 2000 and the disaffected are motivated to vote. Who the hell was disaffected in 2000? So * still loses by 3-4 million votes.
And I think the worm has turned; much of the Bush coalition is turned off by *. I think he will lose votes from 2000. There will be many Reps who say they are voting for * who will stay home or vote third party or vote Kerry. The independents will vote for Kerry by at least 10, more than voted for Gore, so don't be surprised if Kerry wins by 5% or more and even takes a surprise state or two like NC or VA or Arkansas or WVA; they won't say it out loud but those soldiers and their families know they are dying for Bush Oil & Private Contracts (look at the Virginia Pilot endorsement) and not America.
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