Zogby State Tracking Numbers (Mixed news).

[Sean Reynolds]

Bush leads in:

Florida (49-46)
Ohio (47-42)
Iowa (47-45)
New Mexico (49-44)
Nevada (48-44)
Wisconsin (48-45)

74 EC votes

Kerry leads in:

Colorado (49-45)
Michigan (52-42)
Minnesota (46-45)
Pennsylvania (47-45)

57 EC votes

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041024/pl_nm/campaign_poll_sunday_dc&cid=615&ncid=1963&sid=96378800

[NEOBuckeye]

1. I don't buy Bush's lead in Ohio

It's much closer here than the polls indicate.

[sonicx]

2. Those bush ones are all odd. and it's odd that kerry leads CO.

[Sean Reynolds]

3. I was thinking the same thing......why is Kerry ahead in Colorado?

I could see the Bush's lead slipping, but Kerry taking the lead?

[WI_DEM]

4. Yikes, that isn't mixed that's lousy

and I don't believe that we are up by only 2 in Pa and down by five in Ohio. These numbers don't add up. I'm hearing that we're pulling out of Colorado but Zogby has us up. Then we have a number of polls showing us up in Ohio and Zog has us down. Oh well, thank god only a week until the election. These polls are nuts.

[geek tragedy]

5. I hope Zogby is wrong. His #'s are very Bush friendly.

If he's right . . . barf.

[mvd]

10. They were taken during the same time he has Bush with..

strangely good national numbers. Could definitely be off.

[mzmolly]

6. The good news... he's under 50% in most of those states.

:)

[surfermaw]

12. He calaled KErry the winner

About a week ago

[Robert Oak]

7. this is totally weird

last I saw Colorado was going Red and Ohio was blue by 7 in a republican weighted poll.

I'm stopping looking at these crazy things. They are giving me heartburn.

[unfrigginreal]

8. Hmmm, not much good news there

Does anyone know if the sample sizes are 200 per night per state or 600 per night per state?

[still_one]

9. I like my numbers better

Arkansas

Opinion Research Associates for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5:

bush 48
Kerry 48
undecided 3

Florida

Schroth & Assoc. (D) and the Polling Company (R) for The Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:

bush 46
Kerry 46
undecided 7

Iowa

Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:

bush 48
Kerry 48
undecided 4

Michigan

EPIC/MRA for WXYZ. Oct. 18-22, 2004. N=610 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:

bush 43
Kerry 49
undecided 6

Minnesota

EPIC/MRA for WXYZ. Oct. 18-22, 2004. N=610 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:

bush 48
Kerry 49
undecided 3


Nevada

Research 2000 for The Reno Gazette-Journal and Channel 4. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:

bush 49
Kerry 47
undecided 3

Ohio

Scripps Survey Research Center, Ohio University. Oct. 17-21, 2004. N=422 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 4.9); 358 likely voters (MoE ± 5.3):

bush 46
Kerry 50
undecided 3

[West Coast Democrat]

11. But I read in another thread that Kerry is giving up on Colorado....

and I don't believe for a moment that * is up by 5 in New Mexico.

[still_one]

14. The polls are messed up this time

The majority of newly registered voters are going for Kerry, and this is huge

18-24 are going for Kerry, and they WILL vote this time

undecided votes will also go for Kerry

Please remember that Zogby is not always right. He wasn't that good during the primaries, and during the midterm elections

[sonicx]

16. and the Kerry camp said OH anf FL looked good in private polls.

[Green Mountain Dem]

13. Are you fuckin for real ?????

I am so sick of this crap....KERRY in a FUCKON Landslide...It ain't complicated. But if you prefer to believe the media whores and pollsters...be my gueat!!

[DaveinMD]

15. internal polls that

the campaigns rely on are more reliable than any independent polling. Remember that.

[lancdem]

19. Bingo

[zach]

17. Hmm

These aren't even that close to the zogby interactive polling he released this past week. So is he saying this polling is flawed, or the interactive one? He can't have it both ways with fluctuations like this:

Zogby Interactive reported Kerry leading the state of Minnesota 54 percent to 43 percent and now it is Minnesota (46-45)?

Makes a lot of sense Zogby.

[HeldsBelds]

23. interactive online polls are bullshit

This is more accurate because it was a phone poll.

Anyone can register for a zogby online interactive poll and skew the results.

[zach]

26. But

That isn't the point at all. Zogby always defends his interactive polls by saying it's just like whan people used to say phone polling was not reliable. So if he believes they're both legitimate forms of polling, how are these results explainable? I'm not saying your opinion of interactive polls isn't correct... But Zogby himself says you are not.

[tritsofme]

34. They're not explainable

Because his Interactive polls were a nice little experiment but in reality they are absolutely worthless. He has never even said that they are scientific.

He starts bringing out actual polls now because the election is a week away he doesn't want egg on his face from his silly internet polls.

[lancdem]

18. This makes no sense

Kerry's not ahead in Colorado, and Bush isn't up by 5 in Ohio and New Mexico and 3 in Florida and Wisconsin.

[DaveinMD]

21. also remember

that history has shown Zogby to be much more reliable in national polling than in state polling.

[louis c]

20. If that holds, we get buried

Now, I wonder how many here like Rasmussen today better than Zogby?

[DaveinMD]

22. as I said in my post above

Zogby has been much more reliable in the past in his national polling than he's been in state polling. I remember him predicting a big D'Amato win over Schumer in 98 for instance.

[sonicx]

24. both have odd OH and FL numbers. kerry's people say he's doing good there

even bush's people were scared (from the WaPo article).

[DaveinMD]

27. Zogby

has been suspect in the past in his state polling. I trust internal polling a lot more. They have some great pollsters working for the Kerry campaign. Much better than anyone that does media polling.

[still_one]

25. what this says is that the polls are crap!

We know one thing for sure, most of the newly registered voters are Democrats, and they will vote

This is why Kerry will win by at least 5%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. That's Why You Have To Look At A Poll of Polls

To say you have a favorite pollster makes as much sense as saying you have a favorite mathemetician...


Rasmussen is a Puke and Zogby's a Flake....

[louis c]

44. How about Gallup

or Fox.

You can take these polls, just like the news, and read between the lines.

Races that are close, that have Bush under 50%, that can't measure new regs and cell phones. That miss the youth vote and can't measure turnout, are actually good news.

I don't have a favorite pollster, I Read them all. I pay for Rasmussen inside numbers because I could afford $50, so I share that info.

The polling data that is coming out now is encouraging, if you know what to look for.

[DuaneBidoux]

28. This is Just Fucking Insane

Is he giving any commentary on why his polls are so wacky compared to a number of others out recently? Does he admit that he could be having problems with methodology? Zogby has always been the man I trusted more than any. I find this terrifying.

[DaveinMD]

29. his state polling is always suspect

he's always done better in national polling.

[zach]

30. His 2000 battleground numbers

His 2000 numbers were everywhere from close to way out in left field. He showed on election day 2000, that Gore/Bush were TIED 45/45 in the State of California, so you judge. You can view the results here:

http://www.zogby.com/features/featuredtables.dbm?ID=30


Enjoy!

[DuaneBidoux]

32. So he's not the Polling God I believed?

PLEASE let him be full of shit on this one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. That Was Your First Mistake....

Do a poll of polls...


Look at the median poll number or the average....


Throw out the best and worst poll for your guy...

Having a favorite pollster is like saying you believe in the heliocentric theory cuz u dig Copernicus....

[Renew Deal]

42. This is bizzare.

Kerry loses 10 points from his last zogby total in NM? Only 42% in Ohio? Where is he getting this from?

[ciaobox]

31. Bullshit. Kerry will take

Ohio (47-42)
Iowa (47-45)
New Mexico (49-44)
Nevada (48-44)
Wisconsin (48-45)

Handily. Ignore the polls.

[ThePhilosopher04]

33. Not as bad as they look. The thing you have to focus on is...

Shrub's numbers and in every case, he's under 50%, and under 47% in Ohio without Nader on the ballot. I've seen enough results from other polls to not worry much about these results.

[DemMother]

35. If I remember right, Zogby had Gore ahead by only one in California, just

before the election. Being off by ten points in a state is pretty bad. I remember reading somewhere, maybe Donkey Rising, that Zogby's state polling is not that great.

I just spent a few hours calling voters in Florida from a phone bank in CA. If pollsters have similar experiences to the one I had this afternoon, I can't imagine how any of them can predict anything with ANY degree of certainty.

(I found the Zogby CA map from 2000--he had CA as a battleground state, which showed how clueless he was, and on election day he had Gore and Bush tied--Gore won by 12 points.)

[DaveinMD]

36. state polling

is not his forte. He got California wrong and was way off in the Schumer-D'Amato Senate race in 98.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. His numbers weren't so great for Clinton-Lazio...

If you can be off by ten points why fucking poll...

[Quixote1818]

37. I don't care what the numbers say. Turnout will decide this election

And we already know we are winning the turnout war bigtime.

[Firespirit]

38. Huh?

My first reaction: Something is seriously screwy here. Kerry up in CO and behind in Ohio? Iowa is closer than Ohio? :wtf: A couple of days ago, Kerry was in the 48 to 50 percent range there. I find it incredible that he could have lost 8 percent support with no particular reason.

I didn't think I'd say this.. but it looks like Zogby is having some kind of meltdown. His numbers -- all of them -- are fast becoming the noisiest of all the pollsters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I'd Like To See His Operation....

You need a lot of callers to poll ten states a night...


They could be pressed for time and winging it....