Bush is Losing FL!

[Jackpine Radical]

Look--

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-poll24oct24,0,1652595.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

The latest poll, conducted Oct. 18-21 by Research 2000 for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union, found Kerry leading Bush by the narrowest of margins in Florida: 48 percent to 47 percent, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader.

But the poll makes the usual mistake of sampling only "likely" voters..

The results came from 600 registered Florida voters who have a history of voting in statewide elections. {Italics mine} They reflect the state's party affiliations and demographics by age, gender, race and region. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

and..

Interviews with some of those surveyed indicate that new voters, who have registered in record numbers this year, are giving Kerry his best chance for ousting the incumbent president. One big question on Election Day, Nov. 2, is whether these newcomers will show up at their polling places.

But they WILL show up, despite Pug bravado like this...

"I don't put a lot of stock in newly registered voters," said Steven Abrams, the Republican mayor of Boca Raton, who supports Bush. "It's all turnout, and the young voters, 18 to 25, have a history of not turning out.

For example, one young voter said,

"The main thing that got me to register to vote is the fact that early on Bush reinstated the draft board and hired new people for it. Even though he recently corrected himself and said we will have a volunteer army, I still think he might go back on his word," said Victor Musacchia, 20, of Key Biscayne, a Kerry backer.

"He basically forced our people to fight a war that only he felt was just. He would stop at nothing to try to convince us. I think he will push us even further into a conflict."

So the net effect of this poll is to underestimate the effect of the new voters, and those new voters are overwhelmingly Kerry voters.

[tedoll78]

1. HELL YES!

God, I can feel it happening! The election can't come quickly enough! Hurry, November 2nd, hurry! We have the mo' where it counts!

{insert Dean-type-scream *here*}

[opihimoimoi]

2. Fla will go Blue as the Gulf....... God told me....

[aquart]

5. God told me the same thing. Did yours have an Indian accent?

[Ms.Victory]

3. Pumping Fists in the air.

Sweet!

[madrchsod]

4. he lost Florida the last time

why would he win it this time ? bbv or voter intimidation?

[arikara]

14. So true

Jebby can steal it for him again but the chimp won't win it.

[PermanentRevolution]

6. From today's Miami Herald...

It's good, but not overwhelmingly so.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/9992998.htm


FLORIDA VOTER ROLLS UP 1.55 MILLION

"An unprecedented voter-registration drive in the final two months before the state closed its books has done little to clarify the picture. Though more than 382,000 new voters were added to state rolls in that recent period for the Nov. 2 election, Democrats registered only 7,770 more voters than Republicans.

More significant, voter registration since 2000 shows the parties with nearly identical gains, the GOP very slightly ahead with 462,254 new voters to the Democrats' 458,161.

Add more than two million independent voters who registered with no party affiliation or as members of one of more than 20 minor parties and the uncertainty increases. The number of independents rose 41 percent from 2000, a stronger percentage gain than either Republicans or Democrats could muster."

So a whole lot of newly-registered independents since 2000. Don't know if that translates to more Kerry votes per se, but I think current trends are favoring independents breaking for Kerry.

[malatesta1137]

7. you mean

Bush will lose Florida again? Jeb the sack of vomit is spending sleepless nights for sure.

[shawmut]

8. didn't an Orlando newspaper bail on aWol today and endorse Kerry?

I'm feeling good about FL and Ohio. :thumbsup:

[Lorien]

9. When I voted Thursday

There was a line of about 15 people, 10 of which were wearing Kerry buttons or stickers. Outside the polls, only Kerry supporters were there with signs and literature, no Bushbots in sight!

We still could use help for the get out the vote effort: www.truemajority.org has a way for anyone from ANYWHERE to participate-no traveling required. Check it out!

[Zen Democrat]

11. Isn't it illegal to wear campaign buttons & such when voting?

[proud2BlibKansan]

12. No, it's not

you can't campaign - try to persuade people to vote one way or another - within so many feet of a polling place. But wearing campaign buttons is not considered campaigning. It's a free speech issue.

[shelley806]

10. You know, for many reasons Florida would be the state that I'd be

happiest to see Kerry win. I would cry with joy and the sweet sense of justice, after the debacle in 2000. And I would die for a look at Jeb's and george's expressions.

[oasis]

13. Kerry has the momentum. We got this one gang.

[grace0418]

15. "Get Jeb on the phone!"

"Jeb, don't make me come down there and open up a can of whoop-ass on you. Dad said you could be president too, just don't screw this up for me you little asshole."