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The Presidential race has come into focus. If it is close on election night, Kerry needs to win 2 of the Big 3: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. But he also needs to win 3 of 4 from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. Pennsylvania and Minnesota are looking increasingly good for Kerry, so the race comes down to the other five states. Other states could surprise (for instance, Kerry could take Colorado), but if they do they will probably be indicative of a nationwide surge for one of the candidates. If, however, the race is very close, these five states should decide it.
The candidates' campaigns use much more in-depth polling than we see in the media, so by watching the candidates' schedules we can deduce what their polls are telling them. And apparently, bush is throwing in the towel on Ohio. He went 20 days without setting foot in the state. His strategy now is reduced to winning Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Kerry needs one of these, and to hold on to New Mexico, to win the Presidency. Of the three, Iowa looks to be the last battleground to decide the Presidency. It's no coincidence that immediately following the last debate in Arizona, Kerry and Edwards headed straight to Iowa for a late night rally. So far, no clear picture has emerged from the various polls taken of Iowa. It is a toss-up.
This is how the race will break down if it is close on election night. It has become increasingly obvious that bush has maxed out at 47% nationally in the media polls. The undecideds heavily break for the challenger in a Presidential race, and this one will be no exception. A vast majority have told a NYTimes poll and a Democracy Corps poll that they want to change the direction of the country. The majority of the electorate does not want bush back. There is nothing bush can do to change that, so he is left to running a shrill campaign to fire up his base in the hopes he will win with a stronger turnout on election day. But all indications have pointed to a much stronger Dem turnout. Dem voters outnumbered repugs by 3% in 2000, and it is likely to be larger this year.
Also, the media polls are flawed, for many reasons given by others elsewhere. They are not an accurate reflection of the electorate. But even if they were, bush is increasingly running out of options.
My prediction for election night: Kerry wins the popular vote by 2-5%. A 2% win will translate into a comfortable electoral college win, approaching 300 votes, while a 5% win will translate into an electoral college landslide. But if it does end up a tight race, Iowa will be the state that decides the Presidency.
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