Michigan DU'ers: Sudden Spike in Bush Support Reported - Keep Working!

[liberalpragmatist]

According to the NY times, internal polling indicates that Michigan, which was expected wrapped up for Kerry by both campaigns has shown a sudden spike in Bush support. As a result, both Bush and Kerry have hurredly scheduled appearances in the state in the next week.

You know what this means - just work your asses off even harder (at least if you can).

I'm going canvassing tommorrow in Missouri (doing my part).

Anyway, here's the link. Kos reported on it too:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/24/politics/campaign/24campaign.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5094&en=819ec8eee0ed6725&hp&ex=1098590400&partner=homepage

"The Gore states in play are Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of those, analysts and aides said Mr. Bush had the best chance of winning Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. A sudden surge by Mr. Bush in Michigan, a state that Mr. Kerry thought he had put away, caught both sides by surprise, and both men scheduled last-minute trips there for next week."

I still think we're ahead in the state and we'll probably win it. But we can't get overconfident - we should fight as though we're five points behind, even in Michigan and Pennsyvlania.

UPDATE: It seems a lot of people are quite upset by this and just want to deny it. Look, take it with a grain of salt, but we can never win if our attitude to any poll or any information that goes against us is "that's crap." Do I think Kerry is up in Michigan? Yes. I don't doubt that there's lots of Kerry/Edwards support. But understand that Michigan is a swing state. You're right that we have no absolute proof that this story is true, but we have no proof it isn't, and if both campaigns are hurredly scheduling trips to the state, that should be a sign that something is happening - perhaps undecideds are shifting to Bush in larger numbers than expected.

I still think Kerry will win. But the correct response to this information isn't "that's crap" - the correct response is continuing to fight as though we're 5 points behind, even if we're securely ahead - complacency kills. In fact, complacency *lost* Bush the 2000 race. We need to keep on our toes and be prepared for any outcome.

We are going to win. But we won't win if we get overconfident. Just my 2 cents.

[ogradda]

1. i just don't know if i can take

another 11 days of this:-(

[movonne]

2. Is this crap???

[snowbear]

3. NYT...

Whose internal polling is it?

BTW LiberalPragmatest.. I love the JK/'04 tie in that photo ;) ;) ;)

[GOPBasher]

4. That's scary

That's not good news. I'm sure we'll still win the state, though.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. A "sudden spike in support for Bush"?

I really can't understand this. I know the polls show leads going back and forth in the Swing States, but I just can't believe people are saying "I'm voting for Kerry! No, wait, I'm voting for Bush! or Kerry!"

[jhain]

7. in crawford

they locked babybush up on the ranch so of course his ratings go up.
nobody had to listen to him today. they can pretend he has a brain.

[roseBudd]

16. Could this be suppression of the Detroit vote? n/t

Poll challengers?

[baltodemvet]

24. No

[MotorCityMan]

6. I live in Detroit and haven't seen it

Last weekend I drove to Bay City to deliver a dog to a relative. I took the scenic route back, which goes thru an endless series of small, rural towns.

That would be the type of area I would expect LOTS of support for *, but the Kerry signs FAR outnumbered the * signs.

[montana500]

8. Im sure the NRA is hitting Michigan hard

after all it's the home of loonies like Ted Nugent.

Im guessing the NRA ads have bumped support for Bush. Still , Michigan will be Kerry's. The trends dont say anything else.

[sonicx]

9. this is based on mason-dixon polls i think. they are right wing.

[Quixote1818]

10. Take a look at this graph. The spike is OVER!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/michigan.html

[Robeson]

17. I was looking at Utah and Wyoming on the state graphs....

....and have one question. What does one do for intelligent conversation if you happen to live in one of those states? Ooops, sorry if I stepped on any DUer's toes who do.

[Quixote1818]

20. Utah has the highest rate of spousal abuse in the country. The red

color stands for blood.

[unfrigginreal]

11. I guess we might as well include the 'doom' paragraph for Bush

"Of the 11 states on this final battleground, representing 135 of the 538 electoral votes, Mr. Bush won Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio in 2000. Of those, analysts and aides to both campaigns say Mr. Kerry has the best chance of winning New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida, while Nevada appears least likely to turn Democratic."

[sonicx]

12. good catch. if bush people say kerry has ohio and florida...

they have way more trouble than kerry does.

[Carol of the Left]

13. Going to Kalamazoo ...

My husband and I are going to Kalamazoo next weekend and election day to help get out the vote. We have always voted (both of us are life long Democrats) but this is the first time we have actually helped in this way.

All of you here at the DU have inspired us to do our part this time around ... so thank you all for the extra push.

If there are any other people like my husband and me out there reading this, I encourage you to sign up to help get out the vote in your state. There are lots of ways you can help. Just make the call and ask. It's time to make a stand.

[friesianrider]

14. Welcome Carol!!

And good work - if we all do our part and keep plugging away the next 10 days, we'll all be celebrating here like crazy November 3rd!

[ZombieNixon]

18. Welcome to DU, Carol of the Left!

:hi:

[newyawker99]

26. Hi Carol of the Left!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[jerryster]

27. Welcome to the DU and Kudos to you and your husband!

I'm in Illinois and I went to Kenosha, WI today to canvass for Kerry there. What you are doing is tremendous! Way to go!

[JI7]

15. the Bush campaign could have lied to get Kerry camp to spend

time and resources in a state they already have in an attempt to keep them away from truly competitive states.

i just assume and hope the kerry campaign has their own internal numbers in all states so they can be sure themselves.

[sonicx]

19. here's a MI summary from realclearpolitics(R)

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/mi_polls.html

Kerry trailed in one poll by detroit news. The rest say he's ahead(even survey USA, strategic vision, and mason-dixon).

[unfrigginreal]

22. The party breakdown in the Detroit News poll is screwed up

40.6% Dem
40.9% Rep
11.6% Ind
2.5% Other
4.3% refused

http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/22/poll7.htm

[NWHarkness]

21. Why Kerry is coming to Michigan

Sandy Levin twisted his arm about the fact that the ticket had made no appearances in Macomb County. It's more about boosting the local Dem candidates than anything else.

We are not only going to win Michigan, we are making sure Kerry has long coat tails.

[Catt03]

23. Well...I got this from a friend today who livs in Detroit

http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/23/politics-312763.htm

EPIC/MRA in Lansing MI, Mon thru Thur

Kerry - 49 Bush - 43

[leeroysphitz]

25. I can't speak to the veracity

of any polls but I have, much to my frustration, seen a disturbing increase in the number of */ cheney lawn signs (including the big ones) in the last 2 weeks or so. I wouldn't say they now outnumber Kerry/ Edwards signs but they were almost non-existent two months ago even in rural areas outside of Detroit and now they are all over. I've been sorely tempted to take the low road and do some covert late night "community beautification" but I'll just stick with the veterans for Kerry sign in my front window and two-faced stickers on every ATM and stop sign I can find, for now.

[evilqueen]

28. The U.P. is usually ignored.

It's true we don't have the population up here to push an election one way or the other; it's also true that we often feel powerless and "ruled over" by the Lower Peninsula... but I'll tell ya, I have never seen so many yard signs in years. And 95% of them in the U.P. seem to be for Kerry/Edwards.

Our vote might not count for much, but we're solidly Democratic up here.

[demgrrrll]

29. I am certain that the Kerry campaign knows if they are up or down in

Michigan. If you live in Michigan work like hell no matter if the polls say you are up or down. If you don't live in Michigan work like hell wherever you are. Pretty simple and really all we can do. I am not going to be emotionally buffeted about by poll numbers. All I want is George W Bush out of the White House tout de suite. We can do it.