Why Wisconsin matters (or "Ohio was last week's this year's Florida")

[Bucky]

Wisconsin is doing it to us. Electoral-vote.com has Bush up at 271 votes


Okay, I'm back to worrying again... I've been playing with the LA Times's EC vote simulator and I'm not liking the results. I ran one set of numbers in which we won Ohio, but lost Wisconsin and Iowa (where Kerry is currently behind Bush by 3 and 6 percentage points respectively). In that case, Bush wins 271-267. Ugly thought: We can win both Ohio and Pennsylvania and still lose the election.

Wisconsin is the key factor here; losing that state is devastating unless we can pick up Nevada or Tennessee to replace it.

Then I ran a second set of numbers. If we somehow lose Ohio, we would need to pick up Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa. But even that would only produce a tie. But, if there's a 269-269 tie, Bush will win election in the House of Representatives. And under this scenario if Bush gets that one wayward electoral vote out of Maine, he'll win it 270-268.

Colorado would almost be a key factor here, since their EC vote reform might throw four extra votes over to Kerry. But unfortunately it looks like the measure is not going to pass--and even if it did pass the Supreme Court would almost certainly strike it down and find a way to protect Bush and his inalienable right to the presidency, no matter what the so-called voters say.

Note, in the two scenarios above I'm assuming that we win Pennsylvania and they win, one way or another, in Florida. I think those are pretty safe bets. If the votes run so that either of those assumptions aren't correct, then the victory will be so clear that there's no point in gaming the system. This stuff only matters if the election is neck and neck.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

1. Yes, but we're going to win WI (nt)

[HereSince1628]

2. Why is Minnesota white?

BTW, historically Wisconsin has gone both ways.

[blackcat77]

4. Beause of a stupid GOP poll...

...that contradicts everything else. Zogby has Kerry up ELEVEN POINTS in Minnesota.

Sometimes I think that all these polls are really about is creating an attitude. "Oh, we can win Minnesota. We can win New Jersey." Blah de blah blah.

[seattleclarkie]

5. Did you mean Minnesota or Wisconsin?

[newyawker99]

8. Hi seattleclarkie!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[seattleclarkie]

3. We're within 3-6%.

What can we do but keep trying everyday, knocking on one more door, and making one more call?

We're focused on Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida.

Virginia might surprise us, as might Arkansas.

We're closer now than anyone would have thought in August, and a few percentage points within the margin of error should be inspiration not desperation.

Because no matter what happens, we're not going away, we're not backing down, and there will be hell to pay for those who misled and lied to us. No matter who wins, there will be a reckoning.

That's what the election is about. And we'll continue long after November 2nd.

But it's not Nov. 2 yet, and if John Kerry and John Edwards, and everyone else pours out money and time and energy, no reason to look at polls.

[Guaranteed]

6. We're doing great in WI.

Look at the numbers, even at the RW:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Take out the obvious Gallup +6 outlier, and we're tied. Plus, Bush's numbers are around 47%. That means there are a lot of undecideds coming our way.

[kennetha]

7. But you forgot about Florida

If we win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania - which we very well might -- then Bush is toast.

[Bucky]

13. Yes but I didn't forget Poland. I really doubt Florida isn't a "done deal"

Democrats should be vigilant in Florida and do our best, but any strategy that depends on a fair vote down there is a bum strategy.

[DaveinMD]

9. if we win Ohio

we need two of MI, WI and IA. I think we have a great chance at all three.

[ciaobox]

10. PLEASE FOR GOD's (AND KERRY'S SAKE) GET OVER IT!

These polls are designed to distract you and make you fret about these stupid things. Kerry is going to win by a LANDSLIDE. And he will HANDILY take Wisconsin. Cheeseheads HATE TexASS. If you are so concerned, go to Johnkerry.com and start calling voters in Wisconsin.

[Bucky]

14. I ask questions to get feedback, not insults.

Insulting people and avoiding substantive discussions is the hallmark of Republican politics. I expect a Democrat in a Democratic forum to address me with respect and not trivial "TexASS" insults. I am working locally to help get out the vote, so please save your lectures for topics that you have at least half a clue about.

[RummyTheDummy]

11. delete

[RummyTheDummy]

12. I'm really sick of these doom ands gloom posts

Totally pointless.