Why Kerry will win: Democrats own the Battleground (last 3 elections)

[TruthIsAll]

Battleground States Gore won- Total 81 EV
EV, Democratic 2-party vote (last 3 elections)
Only IA and WI are in jeopardy (17 EV)

IA 7 51.8 ?
ME 4 57.1
MN10 55.2
MI 17 54.7
NM 5 53.0
OR 7 53.6
PA 21 54.2
WI 10 52.7 ?
............................................................
Battleground States Bush won- 132 EV
EV, Democratic 2-party vote (last 3 elections)
At least 100EV in jeopardy for Bush

AZ 10 48.8 Long shot
AR 6 55.2 ? Big Dog will win it for Kerry
CO 9 48.8 ? Dead heat?
FL 27 50.7 ? Only way Kerry loses is if Bush steals it again
OH 20 50.8 ? Kerry surging
MO 11 52.5 ? Kerry in striking distance
NH 4 51.7 ? Kerry leading
NV 5 49.9 ? Close race
NC 15 46.6 ? Edwards may still win it
TN 11 50.5 Solid Bush
VA 13 47.3 ? remote possibility
WV 5 54.0 ? traditionally a strong democratic state (Sen. Byrd)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Kidding ourselves if we think only Iowa and Wisconsin are in jeopardy

At bare minimum, I would add Minnesota and New Mexico. Also Oregon, according to my numbers, although I realize everyone disagrees with me.

At issue is the current landscape, versus an incumbent with 50/50 favorability (or very close to that), not the last three elections. Several of those states have lost their Democratic partisanship, so the numbers from early '90s are not applicable.

I'm a Miami Dolphin fan. Should I project the rest of the season by retreating 10 years and looking at stats/results when we had Dan Marino?

[tedoll78]

2. Right now..

I think the real states to watch are:
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Ohio
- Florida
- New Mexico
- Nevada

As for the rest of the U.S.. I think the states will fall into their traditional columns, with the exception of New Hampshire, which will almost surely tip into Kerry's column.

There are reasons for hope:

Iowa: 50000 newly-registered voters this year are Dems. Only 9000 are Repubs. Early voting appears to be helping us as well.

Wisconsin: two new polls out show Kerry barely up: Wisconsin Public Radio, and Zogby. The Feingold race might also help, as some GOPers might be discouraged and think that the whole state is going blue. Feingold is leading by ~20% now, and I seriously doubt that so many people will split their ballots.

Ohio: there is a wide variety of polls out this week showing Kerry up.. even the very nasty Gallup poll. We also have quite possibly the world's best turnout operation in gear, and nearly a million newly-registered voters.

Florida: early voting is here for the first time, and it appears that Dems are taking advantage of it more than the GOP is. The new Washington Post article says we're beating the GOP by quite a nice margin. Plus, over half of the two million new Florida residents (new since 2000) are minorities, who tilt into our column pretty heavily.

New Mexico: I have no idea what's going on here. This is the one state I haven't been watching very closely. Is Bill Richardson very popular here? I know that Zogby is giving this state to Kerry, but I'd like verification from another pollster or two.

Nevada: again, early voting! Dems are outpacing Repubs in getting their folks out to the polls in early voting this year. Also, substantial numbers of new voters have been added to the rolls. There's also a great GOTV operation going-on in both Reno and Las Vegas, aided by a huge influx of liberals from California.

We have great reasons to be hopeful 240 hours from now.