Analysis: Mason-Dixon battleground polls skewed toward Bush

[lancdem]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

The Mason-Dixon polling organization has released a raft of polls in key battleground states in the past two weeks. Mason-Dixon is a reputable organization, but if you’ve been getting the feeling that their results this year are a bit skewed, you’re correct. I compared the results of Mason-Dixon’s October polls with the average of all other polls released in October in the same states. So far this month, Mason-Dixon has released 16 polls in 14 battleground states. Here are the comparisons. The number shown is the difference between the percentage of likely voters supporting George Bush and the percentage supporting John Kerry. A negative number means that Bush was trailing. The number in parentheses is the number of October polls in the state.

Average Bush
of All Mason-Dixon
State Mason-Dixon Other Polls Advantage

Colorado +7.5 (2) +4.5 (6) +3.0
Florida +3.5 (2) +0.3 (10) +3.2
Iowa +6.0 (1) +0.8 (7) +5.2
Michigan -1.0 (1) -4.2 (5) +3.2
Minnesota +2.0 (1) -3.5 (4) +5.5
Missouri +5.0 (1) +4.7 (3) +0.3
Nevada +10.0 (1) +5.5 (2) +4.5
New Hampshire +3.0 (1) -2.0 (8) +5.0
New Mexico +5.0 (1) -2.0 (4) +7.0
Ohio +1.0 (1) -1.3 (11) +2.3
Oregon -1.0 (1) -4.4 (5) +3.4
Pennsylvania -1.0 (1) -3.8 (9) +2.8
West Virginia +5.0 (1) +2.0 (1) +3.0
Wisconsin 0.0 (1) -0.2 (1) +0.2

14 State Average +3.2 (16) -0.3 (76) +3.5