Rasmussen Battleground for 10/22 (Mixed News)

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day national tracking poll has Bush leading Kerry 49%-46%. This is a half point Bush gain from yesterday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby's 3 day national tracking poll for the same days has Bush with the lead 46%-45%. This is unchanged from yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com

Rasmussen 7 day rolling averages for 5 key battleground states are:

Florida, Bush 48%-47% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 51%-46% (This is a 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Minnesota, Bush 48%-46% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday, and the first time he has lead this month)

Ohio, Bush 50%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Missouri has an update that has it Bush 50%-45% which reflects a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/6.

I certainly feel good about Penn, Mich, and even Fla. The news from Ohio and Minn dampens that feeling, however.

I still feel confident of a Kerry victory. As a matter of fact, I talked with a Kerry operative today and he feels that all the beaks in polling will be in Kerry's favor as we approach election day.

But, I'm a die-hard Massachusetts Democrat and a Red Sox fan for my entire life (52 years) so you can just imagine what a nervous wreck I truly am.

[billyoc]

1. Don't sweat it

these polls are completely out of touch, I read that even John Zogby himself said that today or yesterday. Bush will be lucky if he carries half of the red states he did last time.

NYC TWU Local 125

[mzmolly]

2. I just don't see Bush winning Minnesota?

I just can't fathom it. :shrug:

I'm a Minnesotan and if Bush wins here, I'll be amazed.

[lakeguy]

4. there is NO WAY * is takin MN

the polls are all over the place! besides, there are so many people i know personally (including myself) active this election that were not last time around. we will get more of the nader vote too. still doin GOTV though. even got my mom to phone bank...amazing!

KERRY LANDSLIDE!!!

[fugop]

10. Ventura factor?

Will Ventura's endorsement of Kerry have any impact in Minn. or none?

[villager]

3. thanks for posting, Louis C....

...and best of luck to your Sox!

[louis c]

8. kick

[fujiyama]

5. Rasmussen's OH numbers

are strange because several other polls have it the other way around. They show Kerry with a small lead of 2-4 points.

As for Minnesota, I have no idea what is up with the state. I knew WI would be very close, and I know MN was sorta close in' 00... I still feel Kerry will take it though.

Overall I'm confident he will win...It's just a matter of WI, IA, NM, and MN at this point. Hopefully he can take a decisive enough win in FL such that it can't be stolen. That state is too damn important to give up on, inspite of Jeb. We have the senate race there too.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I believe Ohio will strongly mirror the national vote

It is generally 3-4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Given the job loss and economic conditions, plus Kerry's emphasis on the state after Gore abandoned it, I think we can sway Ohio to dead even partisanship, similar to Florida in 2000. Anything beyond that, or maybe 1 point Dem leaning, is unrealistic. The population is so huge that regsistration will not have a 3-4% net impact in our favor.

Kerry needs to win the popular vote to carry Ohio. If Bush leads nationally by a point or two now, I suspect Ohio is very close to even.

[crispini]

6. Thanks for the good work louis c! n/t

[MattNC]

9. what is up with Minnesota?

Thought I saw polls last week that showed Kerry finally pulling away. I guess I'm thinking of another state.

[Doosh]

11. don't worry about Minnesota, but perhaps Bush should worry about Missouri

If Kerry gains another point tomorrow, I guess it becomes and official swing state.

[snowbear]

12. rASSmussen

Did you know that fanatic GOPer Scott rASSmussen's polls were further off than any of the other polls in the nation in 2000?

Here's one mention of it http://www.collegeconfidential.com/cgi-bin/discus/show.cgi?68281/93537 -- but when I have more time, I'll post the other articles about his polls.

He has to be one of the worst pollsters in the nation- bar none.

Daily KOS has some good info on Scott Rasmussen somewhere on their site.

Anyhoo. Rasmussen's polls SUCK. :puke:

[louis c]

18. Rasmussen admitted his problem in 2000

He failed to weight his polls. He was off by about 7 points. he has since corrected the problem.

I know he is a repuke, that's why I always compare his numbers to the Democrat, Zogby.

as you can tell, they are fairly similar. Rasmussen is a business man, and he knows that he can't miss this election and stay in business.

As I said, Zogby's numbers a similar to Rasmussen's, and as you see, I always post the Zogby link and latest info to compare.

Zogby's Premium Site is $200, Rasmussen's was $50, so I took the cheaper of the two to follow the election as closely as possible. By the way, I work for Kerry one day a week in NH. I'm from Mass. I also organize and educate Union members in Mass from my AFL-CIO position on the COPE committee (Committee on Political Education) as well as from my position as President of IBEW local 123.

I tell you this so you won't think I post and think my job to help Kerry ends there.

When I discovered DU back in April, I found it a very useful tool in my work to help rid this country of the worst President ever. I have downloaded valuable essays, cartoons, and articles which have been used in our work.

As a result, I try to give info back, and the Raz Premium numbers are just part of it. As you can tell, I try to give the most positive outlook on them, and make every attempt to tell you that Raz is Repuke. Take that into consideration in evaluating his data. I do.

[merbex]

13. Louis c, I can totally relate to your last sentence

In spades

[lancdem]

14. It's good to see Kerry with leads in PA and MI

and running about even in FL, which reflects what other polls are showing. I think the Ohio numbers are off only because they're out of sync with all the others I've seen there in the past several days. I'm also pretty sure Kerry will win Minnesota.

[4_Legs_Good]

15. Great news from the Kerry Op...

Getting unbiased news from people inside the operations really tells more than these independent polls. The problem is that the news is rarely unbiased until after the election and they tell you what they knew.

david

[Nightwing]

16. No way Bush wins Ohio

I've been volunteering for quite some time and am aware of how skewed the poll numbers are on Ohio. We've lost nearly 250,000 jobs here and people are pissed.

The only people we've found that support Bush are members of the NRA who are afraid Kerry will take their guns. Dont ask me why; I see Ashcroft grabbing those before Kerry ever would!

[Melinda]

17. Look here and feel MUCH better about Ohio:

http://2.004k.com/state/?s=Ohio

Comprehensive site chock full of everything polls and then some.

[snowbear]

19. ~Thanks for the msg Louis~

Very nice message ~ :hug:

I've just read so much about Scott Rasmussen and his ties to WorldNetDaily, Fox News, and countless other Republican-only organizations that he just makes me sick..

I've never understood why someone who wants to be known as an "Independent Pollster", would write a book claiming that the GOP will dominate the United States for the next century? Or why they would be business partners with Larry Kudlow? Or why they would be a correspondent for WorldNetDaily? Or why they would continue to donate huge amounts to the Republican party only? :puke:

Yet he wants us to accept him as a non-bias pollster :( -?

I suppose I'd accept his apology for being so dead wrong on his polls if he had cut all of his ties with the rightwing only groups following it.

But...... anyhow..

Are there any other polls besides the two you mentioned that offer detailed polling data? :)

Thanks again for your explanation! ~~ :hug: :pals:

[louis c]

21. Gallup Sucks

but they have a free subscription for 30 days.

as much as they suck, they have Kerry up 5% in Ohio.

I liked the link that is up on this thread by Melinda. she's just ahead of you on the reply list.

I put it in my favorites. It will be another way to check all the data that's coming in right now.

[hansolsen]

20. I live in NE rural Minnesota where Gore won but lost some traditional

union support due to God, guns and gays. My sense is that this year the union guys are coming home to Kerry, and there has never been so much ground level activism. If this year's GOTV effort, along with new registrations, doesn't sweep Kerry to victory in Minnesota, I'll be amazed.

P.S. Don't get too excited over the Ventura endorsement -- Jessie has fallen on hard times in Minnesota. Been there, done that -- he's waaaaaaay ooooovvvveeerrr.

[louis c]

22. I'll take a Ventura endorsement any day

It will help with the young vote, and give Kerry a uniter image.

Maybe it won't mean a hell of a lot, but if it's close, I'll take anything I can get.

I don't see any negatives, do you?

[hansolsen]

23. I see Ventura endorsement as a net plus, but a small plus, and not a

clean break one way.

But I'm with you -- I'd rather have it than not.

Actually I think it will be most effective with the "support the troops" voters who may be having doubts about Shrub -- Ventura is a Navy Seal and his take on Bush may carry some weight with fellow military voters.

[louis c]

24. I forgot about the Navy Seal thing

It certainly can't hurt.