New Hampshire: Canary in the Coalmine

[tedoll78]

We are less than 270 hours away from the beginning of midnight voting in Dixville Notch, NH. I'm attaching special significance onto New Hampshire's voting this year.

First, a recap of the past:
--> Al Gore got 265,853 votes there in 2000.. 47%
--> George W Bush got 273,135 votes in 2000.. 48%
--> Ralph Nader got 22,156 votes in 2000.. 4%

Nader will be on the ballot again, but it is widely suspected that he won't be nearly as strong as he was in 2000. Recent polls for New Hampshire's 4EVs are as follows:
1) Rasumssen (10/18) --> Bush 47, Kerry 49, Nader -
2) ARG (10/16-18) --> Bush 47, Kerry 46, Nader 1
3) Mason-Dixon (10/15-18) --> Bush 48, Kerry 45, Nader 1
4) Suffolk U. (10/14-17) --> Bush 41, Kerry 46, Nader 1
5) Research 2000 (10/14) --> Bush 45, Kerry 49, Nader 2

If you were to average these five polls together, Kerry has a lead of about 1.4%. Bush's percentage in these polls averages 45.6%.
(And note also how Bush only gets over 47% in the {*ahem*} Mason-Dixon poll..)

I may be wrong in putting so much meaning and weight into the the small state. But I think that it has some elements reflective of the campaign themes nationwide. It's a state that leans conservative (like other swing states do), and it's a state narrowly won by Bush in 2000. It may function as a microcosm, if you will. A friend asked me to come-up with an early indication of how the night might go, so I looked at early states and this one stuck-out at me. New Hampshire's polls close early in the evening (~7PM, EST), and the votes are counted quickly due to the state's relatively small size.

Given all of this, I am going to now put-out a theory: New Hampshire will set the tone for Election Night.

- If Kerry wins convincingly, with undecideds and new voters giving him a large margin (>5%), this points to a great night ahead.
- If Kerry wins barely, it's really inconclusive. :shrug:
- And if Kerry loses New Hampshire, it might be time to break-out the Maalox.

That's my theory. Or superstition, depending on your own thoughts on this. I'm looking for something, anything early in the evening to point to as a trend.. a sign.. and this is the best that I can come-up with. Thoughts?

[Jersey Devil]

1. yes, but in 2000 NH was not called until way late in the evening

In fact I think it was even later than the Florida reversal. It is a small state but I think they still use paper ballots in some of the rural areas and those votes take a long time coming in.

[annerevere]

2. Do you have an idea of the mood in New Hampshire now?

Does either candidate seem to have a bit of momentum? Do you have any information about the strength of the GOTV efforts?

[merbex]

4. For what it's worth-

Since MA volunteers are being used so heavily -activist democrats were asked tonight at a Plymouth County Democratic League meeting to go to Maine

NH must be looking good

[tedoll78]

5. From what I've read..

pretty close. There has been a flood of folks from Massachusetts to work the ground. Sorry to sound so wishy-washy.. :P

[Maeven8pol]

6. New Hampshire is well organized

They've done extensive canvassing with many volunteers coming in from Boston and New York. Even when Kerry was down by 9, Kerry workers were getting very positive vibes from New Hampshire voters.

Kerry has a good organization there and it sounds to me as though their GOTV will be very effective.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi Maeven8pol!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[matt819]

3. Statistics

I'm no statistician, but averaging polls doesn't strike me as a particularly productive exercise.

I continue to wonder about the Granite State, why we're the only Republican state in a sea of Dems, but there you have it. I think your key point is toward the end of your post. New Democratic voter registrations are up, I think I recall on NHPR, some 16,000 (maybe it was 6,000, but it was a substantial number, at least for our small state). In contrast, new Republican registrations were in the low hundreds. That gives me some hope. The key will be to get out the vote.

[snippy]

8. I agree about averaging polls. Because of different methodologies,

different clients commissioning the polls, different time periods covered, and other factors, averaging polls has little statistical validity.

[DemocracyInaction]

9. I said for a long time the East is going to set the pace

In fact, it's sort of a propaganda effect. If people see things folding early then it ripples across the land and some voters give up and stay home. It's going to be more than watching NH. Maine and RI (or maybe it's Conn. because it's so small on the map it's hard to tell which one is colored which) are now in a sort of toss up area, though I believe both will go Dem. Some big Kerry leads months ago are down to 4 and 5 points and the repubs are pouring big money in here. If the people see Maine, NH or a NH RI go down, well....let's not go there. These have to fall early to the Dems on election night.

[KharmaTrain]

10. We Are In Agreement

The Networks will hit the air with results as soon as the first polls close and that will set a tone as it has in past elections. 2000 was a fluke as it was so close, I don't expect that to happen this time.

New Hampshire & Indiana close at 7pm and those numbers go out quick. If Kerry grabs New Hampshire, that gets the talking heads wagging and the Indiana numbers get lost...then the focus is set on the 8:00 results from the rest of New England and the Mid Atlantic states. If Kerry starts rolling up those states and Bunnypants goes a good hour or more without winning a state (and it could happen), that will send out a message across the country.

While local coverage of results are embargoed until your polls close, cable networks aren't obligated in embargoing other state results into your area...thus if Kerry starts showing strong in the east, people in the Midwest & West (Missouri, Colorado, Arizona) will see this momentum building and it could affect those votes accordingly.

Just look at what happened to Ronald Raygun in the closing days of the '80 race and put Kerry in that situation. Big wins in the east and a surprise in a Virginia plus a big win in Ohio and we're off to an early party.

Cheers!