So how did the undecideds break in 1972?

[carpetbagger]

I keep hearing about "from 1976 to 1996 undecideds break for challengers a zillion to one".

So what happened to Tricky Dick? Did they say, aw shucks, I guess we'll go with the secret plan? Was it just too damn far gone? Were the polls not as tweaked as they are now?

Does it apply this time?

[The Magistrate]

1. No One Bothered To Notice, Sir

Nixon was clearly en route to a landslide from the get go.

But it remains true that in a race featuring an incumbent, "undecideds" generally go to the challenger in the voting booth. In such a contest, "undecided" really means "do not want to vote for the incumbent," which in turn actually means, "want that rascal out of office." This feeling will be based on the years of exposure to the fellow while he is in office; there is little advertising or theatrics can really do to alter such an ingrained perception, and voting for the challenger is the only way to bring it to fruition. People who do not want to vote for an incumbenmt, and cannot bring themselves to vote for the challenger, simply stay at home that day....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Lithos]

2. The 1972 election was complicated

The party favorite going into the primary was Muskie. He was smeared and portrayed well into the primary system as weak after allegedly crying at a press conference dealing with an attack on his wife. This brought McGovern up as a sort of "backup" candidate. It also did not provide ample time for the party to heal.

Then after the nomination, McGovern's first running mate, Eagleton, was shown to have received shock therapy for a mental disorder. Shriver quickly replaced him. This further divided the party.

So basically, the Democratic Party going into 1972 was demoralized and whose nominees were not the strongest members capable to defeat Nixon whose Republican party stood solidly behind his re-election efforts.

On top of it all, Nixon while a thief was an able administrator. The economy was doing well despite the war which was at the time still seen as part of the fight in the Cold War.

The differences are

1) We have a strong pairing of candidates who are leading a united Democratic Party prepared to win this election.

2) The Republican Party is divided along ideology.

3) The economy is in the toilet.

4) The basis for the war has been shown to be based on lies.

[Barney Rocks]

3. How the undecideds break

I was sent this breakdown by my brother. It includes not only 1972--but all presidential races back to 1936.

Year Race 1 Month Out Next To Last Poll Result Verdict

1936 Incumbent FDR vs. Landon FDR 51, Landon 44 FDR 54, Landon 43 FDR 61, Landon 37 Broke towards incumbent.

1940 Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie FDR 51, Willkie 42 FDR 51, Willkie 42 FDR 55, Willkie 45 Broke evenly.

1944 Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey FDR 47, Dewey 45 FDR 47, Dewey 45 FDR 53, Dewey 46 Broke towards incumbent.

1948 Incumbent Truman vs. Dewey Dewey 46, Truman 40 Dewey 50, Truman 45 Truman 50, Dewey 45 Broke towards the incumbent.

1952 No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson Ike 51, Stevenson 38 Ike 48, Stevenson 39 Ike 55, Stevenson 44 Broke evenly.

1956 Incumbent Ike vs. Stevenson Ike 51, Stevenson 41 Ike 51, Stevenson 41 Ike 57, Stevenson 42 Broke towards incumbent.

1960 No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Nixon vs. Kennedy Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 Kennedy 50, Nixon 50 Broke for incumbent VP.

1964 Incumbent LBJ vs. Goldwater LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 LBJ 61, Goldwater 38 Broke towards challenger.

1968 No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Humphrey vs. Nixon Nixon 43, Humphrey 31 Nixon 44, Humphrey 36 Nixon 43, Humphrey 43 Broke towards incumbent party.

1972 Incumbent Nixon vs. McGovern Nixon 60, McGovern 34 Nixon 59, McGovern 36 Nixon 61, McGovern 38 Broke evenly.

1976 Incumbent Ford vs. Carter Carter 47, Ford 41 Carter 48, Ford 44 Carter 50, Ford 48 Slight break towards incumbent.

1980 Incumbent Carter vs. Reagan Carter 47, Reagan 39 Carter 47, Reagan 39 Reagan 51, Carter 41 Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds.

1984 Incumbent Reagan vs. Mondale Reagan 58, Mondale 38 Reagan 56, Mondale 39 Reagan 59, Mondale 41 Broke evenly.

1988 No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Bush vs. Dukakis Bush 49, Dukakis 43 Bush 53, Dukakis 39 Bush 53, Dukakis 46 Broke evenly from a month out. Broke slightly towards challenger from the 2nd to last poll.

1992 Incumbent Bush vs. Clinton Clinton 47, Bush 29 Clinton 43, Bush 36 Clinton 43, Bush 38 Broke towards incumbent.

1996 Incumbent Clinton vs. Dole Clinton 48, Dole 39 Clinton 52, Dole 41 Clinton 49, Dole 41 Broke evenly.

2000 No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Gore vs. Bush Bush 48, Gore 43 Bush 47, Gore 45 Gore 48, Bush 48 Broke towards incumbent VP.

With only three exceptions, the incumbent party's candidate did at least as well as the challenger with the late breaking vote, and usually did a lot better. The three exceptions? Barry Goldwater and Mike Dukakis each made small gains while remaining considerably behind in an impending crushing defeat. Ronald Reagan proved to be the exception to every rule, winning not only the undecideds but also taking away considerable support from Jimmy Carter during the last weeks of the 1980 election.

[Zen Democrat]

4. Half the democrats voted for Nixon in '72, but most won't admit it.

I remember it well. It was my very first vote -- for George McGovern. And I was appalled that no one would report about the Watergate scandal. That waited until just after Nixon took the oath for his second term -- and poof! it was all over for him.