Guys, Kerry doing 6+% better in battlegrounds vs national

[pabloseb]

Many national polls also have information about the race in battleground states. In all those polls, Kerry is doing much better in the battlegrounds than in the complete survey. Examples from today:

Harris LV model 1:
National: * 8% up
Battleground: tie

Harris LV model 2:
National: * 2% up
Battleground: Kerry 7% up

Pew Research:
National: Tie
Battleground: Kerry 6% up

Unfortunately they don't specify what their battleground states are. Are they considering WA state? Since Kerry is way ahead there, that would explain part of the lead, but just a small part. The biggest battlegrounds are FL, OH and PA. If Kerry is 6% up in the sum of the battlegrounds, he MUST be doing very well in the big ones.

Bottom line: if a national poll shows the race tied or even a small lead for *, that means Kerry is actually ahead in the states that matter.

[pabloseb]

1. And that's without even considering...

... that Bush is way below than 50% at those states, that undecideds tend to break for the incumbent, etc.

[girl gone mad]

2. It makes sense.

People in the battleground states are paying closer attention to the election, from what I can tell.

[underpants]

3. WV VA NC TN all within 3 points

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/

[RafterMan]

4. That's why I don't buy the national polls

Bush seems to be doing the same as or worse than his result last time in the red state polls. Kerry seems to be doing the same as or better than Gore in blue state polls, and Kerry is way ahead of Gore in swing-state polls.

Since the last election was small Gore victory, how can these facts add up to a tie this time?

[pabloseb]

6. Red states have larger population

By a small margin, solid red states have more population than solid blue states. Also, keep in mind that red states overall increased their population from 2000 to 2004 compared to blue states. That may explain why there's a tie in the national polls while Kerry is ahead in the swing states.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. Close states list (and Washington and Oregon are NOT on it.

This is my list:
NH, OH, FL, IA, WI, NV, NM, MO, TN, WV.