10/19 ARG: Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in New Hampshire

[unfrigginreal]

George W. Bush and John Kerry remain tied among likely voters in New Hampshire according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 1% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided. Kerry has pulled even with Bush by increasing his lead among undeclared voters.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Bush is at 47% and Kerry is at 47%. This is unchanged from the October 5 survey.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% are registered as Republicans, 28% are registered as Democrats, and 37% are undeclared voters (independents). The interviews were conducted October 16 through 18, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nh/

[lancdem]

1. Kerry will win NH

All the polls there show a tie or Kerry with a small lead.

[WI_DEM]

2. well I like ARG, but most other polls give Kerry the edge

[MAlibdem]

3. Hmmmm.

Unfortunately, they didn't poll me or any of the other 50,000 college students in the state...