Latest Zogby battleground polls: Big picture looks very good

[lancdem]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

Bush is ahead in 7 of the 16 states, which is better than he's done in awhile. However, NONE OF HIS LEADS ARE OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR. Kerry, however, has leads outside the MOE in 6 of the 9 states he's ahead in. The bottom line is, Kerry has sewn up most of the blue battleground states while Bush is still vulnerable many of the red battleground ones. And keep in mind, this poll was done Oct. 13-18, so it included several days immediately after the debate when Kerry's momentum took a hit because of the Mary Cheney crap.

I think the big picture here captures how Kerry now has the advantage of being able to go after Bush on his EV turf. I do quibble with some of the specifics: Zogby has Bush up 3 in Ohio, missing the obvious trend in that state toward Kerry. On the other side, here's no way Tennessee is in play.

[private_ryan]

1. "Zogby has Bush up 3 in Ohio, missing the obvious trend"

can't pick and choose, can you? True that a poll can be off, but Ohio is within the margin on almost all polls. If the margin is 3% then 47% pretty much equals 44%.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. Kerry can take Arkansas

Most of the state leans Dem, except for the NW corner where I live. Interestingly enough, there's a real horse race here for Congress, which hasn't happened in ages (last time, the Dems didn't even run a candidate, much to my chagrin). Today, in Harrison (a town not noted for being liberal), I noted more Kerry signs up. Same number of Bush signs. Local Dems are showing the film about how Bill Clinton was trashed by the neocons (on the 27th, I think). Clinton and Clark have supporters in this area, and the cavalier way Bush and Boozman, the Rethug Conman, have treated veterans has not gone over well. If the 3rd Congressional District goes blue, the state is Kerry's.


Check out www.janjudy.com and help this brave lady go to the House of Representatives!

[dolstein]

3. "Bush has posted his best performance since June . . . "

Please tell me what's so good about the big picture? The poll shows Bush doing better in battleground states than he has since June. Kerry is ahead only in one red state, which isn't enough to get to 272 electoral votes. If these results were replicated on election day, Bush would be reelected.

The big picture looks good ONLY in the sense that it could look a heck of a lot worse.

[fishwax]

4. New Hampshire alone is enough

According to that map, Kerry takes NH from gw, and that alone would be enough to win the election (provided he carries all the other states he's ahead in, too) ... even if gw steals Florida.

But honestly, I think JK has a great shot at AR, OH, and FL as well, with a chance at NV and MO. I feel pretty damn good about the way things stand now, with only two weeks of hard work left to go. :D

[fishwax]

5. Oops, I guess NH isn't enough

I forgot about the redistribution of electoral votes.

But I'm still feeling pretty confident.

[PATRICK]

6. Polls lag

Papers lag. Media digs in heels for Bush, but is grudgingly forced to save itself. The people, the real live people who don't follow much very closely, were given the benefit of the debates. It IS over as far as any fair campaign is concerned. In trying to seal a victory(mandate? those dreams crashed long ago) they gave the election to Kerry because as in all else they are grossly incompetent especially when they are given most of what they want, even obscene amounts of campaign money and slick expertise. The Mayberry stooges can't manage their own resources.

Gross incompetence and visible dirty tactics and blowback seem to be the best augers they have nothing left to do, that they themselves can't spoil and ADD to the Kerry lead. Shoot in foot. Lock and load. Shoot in foot again. That is how one much smarter GOP loser once described his campaign. Bush in his pathetic attempts to rig or steer the debates has allayed many fears that they can pull some dastardly clever trick to slough over the superiority of Kerry and fog over the Bush disastrous record.

Now they are only partly aiding the Congress they mostly overlook and abuse to survive by not going gently into the night. The Dems simply don't have resources to pump into all the needed seat races to capitalize on a coattail mandate.

The atmosphere of inevitability and the whiff of Bushco despair is getting pervasive, the Bushniks defensive, even fearful and apologetic. Only the media is dutifully keeping this from being a rout but THAT is guaranteeing heavy turnout, and will backfire on Bush as well.

Bush campaign failures early on to damage Kerry despite Kerry's lack of a national forum guaranteed their downfall in accepting the fatal debates. Failed presidency(fake as it was), failed campaign, failed human beings. No surprise. The people are onto the truth though they don't know the half of it.

[GOPBasher]

7. Barring cheating, we're going to win this thing.