New Zogby/ WSJ battleground polls out.

[jezebel]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

mixed news, Bush has leads again in 7 states but all are within margin of error. Kerry leads in 9, 6 outside the MOE. If all of this is correct AND Kerry can flip back either Ohio or Florida (both are less than 2 point Bush lead) Kerry wins.

[Thrill]

1. doesn't look very good

.

[Shopaholic]

3. No it's better than you think--

It says that all of *'s leads in the battleground states are within the margin of error. In the 9 states where Kerry leads, he is outside the Margin of Error! Plus, he leads in more battleground states!

[4_Legs_Good]

16. Plus I believe, even this is enough to win - oops! Nope

Nevermind Bad math.

david


Just barely, but enough...

Unless I'm quite mistaken. NH puts us over the top.

But we have a very good chance of taking a couple others, and George Jr. is gonna have to work like a dog to even take one from us.

david

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I question the methodology...

poor folks don't have access to the net....

[aquart]

9. LOOK AGAIN.

[meg]

27. Actually, it looks great

Not too hard for Kerry to convert some or all of the Bush leads

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Gore's Running Against Kerry -hmmm

nt

[The_Counsel]

29. No, Actually They're Just Showing Who Won In 2000. (n/t)

Made you look. :-)

[4_Legs_Good]

4. It's tight, but good news overall...

All the Gore states, plus New Hampshire. And the Bush states are more in play than the Gore states overall.

Keep it up!

david

[aquart]

OMFG. All the Bush states are within MOE.

OMFG.

[Nicholas_J]

6. The interesting thing

Kerry has much larger leads in the battleground states he leads in than Bush does in the battlegroud states he leads in.

[TruthWins]

7. Interactive Polls Aren't Worth the Paper They're Printed On

I didn't have time to do my Zogby online poll this week and I'm in Ohio. Who knows? I could have tipped the scale our way.

[sonicx]

17. yeah, Zogby's battlegrounds haven't proven themselves but

they are still interesting to participate in. :)

[Crankie Avalon]

8. So Long as he takes PA, Kerry can afford to lose either Ohio or Florida...

...but not both.

But I've seen recent polls where Kerry is winning all three.

[aquart]

22. Don't count on Florida. Jeb is crooked to the DNA.

[sonicx]

10. is isn't bad at all

OH and FL are very close.

[masonfl]

11. Actually, this isn't as bad as it looks

It's unfortunate to see Bush leading in both Florida and Ohio but in both cases the leads are small (1.2% in Florida and 3% in Ohio). The Florida result is well within the Margin of error and Ohio is just outside of the margin of error. The Minnesotta numbers are very very good, showing Kerry with an 11% lead. If Kerry can carry (haha) Pennsylvania, Florida and hang onto Wisconsin and Minnesotta he wins the election.

[UCLA Dem]

26. There was another poll out today showing a 3 pt. Kerry lead in OH.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1114238

[tritsofme]

12. I do not find Zogby Interactive polls

to be credible regardless of their results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. It's Funny

Harris's online survey nailed 00


but I know a net poll is open to mischief and poor folks and old folks and poor old folks don't have access to the net...

[tritsofme]

21. I just don't think its possible

to weigh in a representative sample of voters when basically the only people that take part in these surveys are extreme partisians.

Zogby's Interactive polling wasn't too hot in 2002 either.

[sonicx]

20. i kinda agree

it seems to me that far left and far right people would be most of the people doing them.

[Jersey Devil]

13. Why does anyone pay attention to Zogby interactive battleground polls?

Anyone can sign up for them - DUers and freepers can easily skew the results. They have no value

[Doosh]

14. this is not bad news!

Kerry up in Iowa, up 11 in Minnesota, up 4 in Wisconsin, up 11 in Washington, up 13 in Oregon, up 5 in Penn and New Hampshire, up 9 in New Mexico, up 7 in Michigan all waaay better than what Gore did in 2000. All the Bush states are practically ties.

[demokatgurrl]

15. The polls are completely wacky- take them with a grain

of salt. In another poll TODAY, Kerry is AHEAD by 2 in Ohio. Check www.ohiodems.org

They change every day, are different from each other every day. I think we just have to work hard and wait until November 3 for the shit to hit the fan.

[ollie3]

33. Also, an ABC poll out today in Ohio gives Kerry 50-47

I am very encouraged by how close some of the states I had figured for Bush are in this poll. Another poll today had WVa within 2 points. The way i see the totals, if we don't win OH or FL, we can still win, but it would mean taking a state that Bush is now ahead in. If we won the usual states, and won WI, IA,NH, MN, NM, NV, we would have a 269/269 tie in elect college if CO does not pass its amendment and we lost FL and OH. We would still need to win one of the following in this scenario: WVa, NC, Va, MO, ARK. What I find good in these polls is that these five states may be leaning Bush, however they are very close and it is entirely possible Kerry could win at least one of them. Don't get me wrong, I know OH and FL are both within Kerry's reach, however, I would like to see a backup strategy, not put all the eggs in the OH/FL basket.

[missouri dem]

19. Is it just me or are these results 2 weeks old?

[jezebel]

32. You may need to refresh your browser if the Oct 6 results are coming up.

They have the new Oct 19 results up now.

[UCLA Dem]

23. We've got the MO!! Lets keep going!!!!

[dolstein]

24. Down is up! Black is white!

Zogby reports that Bush posted his best peformance since June in key battleground states and DU'ers are saying this is good news. Yeah. Right.

[aquart]

31. What?

[dolstein]

36. Read the first sentence of the October 19 overview

And tell me how that's good news for Kerry.

[Harlan James]

25. This Election Is Not For The Faint Of Heart

What a roller coaster ride.

[Bleacher Creature]

28. This actually looks pretty good.

Ohio and Florida are both within range (and in our column in a couple of other polls)

What's really striking is that Arkansas, Tennessee and West Virginia are still very much in play. In reality, they never should have been Bush states to begin with, but in our alternate universe I'm sure that B/C fully expected not to have to worry about them this late in the game.

[still_one]

30. This doesn't include the newly registered Democratic Voters

John Kerry is going to win big

[bush equals idiot]

34. CNN just told you Kerry is ahead in Ohio.

That's CNN. CNN. CNN.

The most BUSTED name in news.


I claim that as our new title for CNN.

[Czolgosz]

35. We're getting so close to the election, that I thing we need not

worry too much about MI, MN, NH, WA, OR. They are more or less decided for Kerry (not that we should let up on GOTV, but we should sleep better about these formerly-battleground states). If I'm KKKarl, I'm losing sleep over AR, WV, MO, TN (plus some iffy non-battleground states like VA, CO) -- which KKKarl should have sewn up by noe, but where his candidate is too weak to close.

[DemocracyInaction]

37. Correct me if I'm wrong

Looks like the final map after the 2000 vote. The difference this year is that we might pick up NH and they will win Florida by a 100 million votes (go to the bank on it - they have the glitches fixed as to not come that close again - wink, wink).

[BlueInRed]

39. We lost 7 electoral votes in the 2000 census

which Daschle et al didn't oppose. So, what would have won in 2000 (picking up NH) still results in a loss. (I think this is the question you are asking; if not, sorry.) :)

[BlueInRed]

38. More details on the poll

I posted this elsewhere, but the poll has some interesting info:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an1019.html (Main description)
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html (Interactive map showing state by state results)

Important notes on the poll:

• Red states Missouri, Arkansas, TN & West Virginia each show Kerry only 3% points behind -- completely reversible with a big Democratic turnout.
  
• Poll has Nevada, Ohio & Florida to Bush, so if Nevada turns to Kerry, it's a tie.
  
• If Ohio or Florida goes to Kerry, Kerry wins.
  
• Poll doesn't show Colorado (presumes Bush), so if Colorado goes to Kerry or splits under the proposition, it could shift it to Kerry.
  
  So, if Kerry get Nevada plus a portion of Colorado, he would win even if losing Ohio and Florida.