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[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Your assessment is spot on...

Kerry's tied in the horserace and doing fine in the Battleground States where this election will be decided...

As I always warn my fellow DUers elections are fluid and never take anything for granted...

[lancdem]

7. I agree as well

Even some of the LV polls are beginnning to show it tied (CBS, NBC) as well as the RV polls. All the numbers I'm seeing reinforce what Pete said. I've noticed internals in recent polls, including Zogby, trending Kerry when it comes to independents. That's very bad news for Bush.

Public polls also confirm the statements about Florida and Ohio. A poll out today has Kerry up 2 in Ohio after being down 11 in the same poll post-RNC. And SurveyUSA has him up 1 in Florida.

[JUS]

2. What about Montana?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. go to

www.realclearpolitics.com and click on montana...

I know it has two Dem senators but isn't it a red state at the presidential level

[JUS]

6. one Dem Senator

The puke senator is Conrad Burns...

It's going blue too baby - MT is poised to elect a Dem governor and a Dem legislature....

[featherman]

14. Montana is an interesting wild card

Voted Clinton in 1992. Small population state that could theoretically be flipped with a big turnout of DEMS and pro-Kerry INDS in Missoula, Billings, resort areas. Unlikely though and nobody has campaigned there basically ceding it to GOP.

[JUS]

16. It is a wild-card state

Montanans have an independent streak - electing the first woman to the US Congress - a pacifist who voted against entering WWI.

The Dem candidate for governor will surely win this year.

Clinton won in 1992 - but then again there is also a town called Clinton in Montana as well - close to Rock Creek - one of the best fly fishing streams in the country...

[featherman]

18. Yeah, I've fished it along with most other Montana blue ribbon

streams. I was a professional fly tyer for 30 years and was able to fish the best of the best all over the country. Retired in 2002 and started a new business which keeps me closer to home and off the road.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

4. You forgot Poland

:evilgrin:

[calico1]

5. Damn, you beat me to it!

I was going to say "Don't forget Poland!"

[DrFunkenstein]

8. The Remote Possibility Of Bush In NJ

Will ensure huge Democratic turnout. We always get voted "Primary Most Likely To Mean Absolutely Nothing," so the prospect of Dubya sneaking up on us will do wonders for our sense of civic duty.

[Nicholas_J]

9. Two polls just released show Kerry leading in NJ

One poll the Star Ledger has Kerry winning by 13 points.

Kerry is also clearly leading in Ohio in the latest Poll. As well as a significant lead in Oregon.


Electoral Vote.com has Kerry winning the election with 284 electoral votes as a reslt of the latest state polls.

In fact, this polls has Bush winning Ohio. Kerry has far more EV's in states that he leads with more than five points (beyond margin or error)

Kerry has 228 electoral votes in states where he leads with more than five points while Bush only has 183 Electoral votewsin states where he leads with more than five percent.

In this scenario, Kerry wins in FLorida, because he currently has a one point lead, but Electoral Vote. com has not considered Kerry's recent lead in Ohio polls showing Kerry leading in Ohio by two points as opposed to the one point that heleads with in Florida.

If Kerry trakes either Florida or Ohio he still has more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

[DrFunkenstein]

10. Shhh...!

Bush is almost neck and neck, I swear! Now more than ever, New Jerseyans, we have to get out the vote!

[lancdem]

12. He updates the site every morning

so he wouldn't have that Ohio poll, that came out today, up yet.

[Zero Gravitas]

11. Haha

Bush ignoring Ohio may be because it actually lowers his numbers to appear there.

too funny. Sounds like Ohioans are smarter than the rest of the country! "Looks like a fool, sounds like a fool, walks like a fool, yep the preznit IS a fool"

[RobertSeattle]

13. Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall in the room

Advisor/Rove: "Mr, President, we don't recommend you going to Ohio any more, the more you go there, the more your percentages go down."

Bush: "I want my mamma"

[Name removed]

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[Ishoutandscream]

17. Incumbent polling below 50% so soon to election

Should be a slam dunk for our guy. At least in a fair election.

[tedoll78]

19. Russert actually mentioned new voters.

What almost made me crap my pants with joy is how he said that new voters could be huge, they could throw-off the polls, and that they'd most likely be in favor of Kerry.

[cthrumatrix]

20. don't believe anybody at this point....recruit recruit recruit

[tedoll78]

21. Oh, of course you're right..

but you can imagine my surprise at Russert actually admitting this on television.. :P

[DeepModem Mom]

22. kick