Anyone been to the Campaign Oddsmaker site?

[popstalin]

Since 1995, The Political Oddsmaker by Ron Faucheux has made over 2,100 picks in U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, U.S. House, major mayoral and initiative elections, with a record of correctly predicting winners over 98 percent of the time. That's why it's America's most popular elections handicapping service!

The interesting thing is most states that has B* ahead is by a matter of 1% point. Fun to look at.

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/?CFID=782199&CFTOKEN=85459560

[MAlibdem]

1. with modern polling, gerrymandering, and the power of incumbency

I could probably guess correctly 98% of the time too

[Tesibria]

2. tsk tsk

tell the WHOLE story -- the site CLEARLY says:

George W. Bush (R) favored over John F. Kerry (D), 25 to 24 (51% chance; upgraded from 50.6% chance Oct. 17; downgraded from 51% chance Oct. 14; downgraded Sept. 30 from 51.7% chance; upgraded Sept. 18 from 51% chance; upgraded Sept. 4 from 50.5% chance)

Analysis: While we still give Bush a very slight edge in the election overall, this race is still in play. It continues to be linked to day to day events with the economy, Iraq and the war on terror. National polls seem to indicate a small rebound for Bush in recent days.

the site has Bush favored by 50.8% in Ohio and Florida, with Kerry ahead 51.3% in Pennsylvania.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Let's just say I could have retired years ago if those were bettable odds

In fact, my first post on DU was in 2002 regarding Faucheux's "laughable odds" as I put it.

He may predict the correct winner, but simply no clue how to estimate correct odds. He literally underestimates advantage ten fold or more in some cases, particularly blowout races. Sometimes, especially very late in the campaign, the offshore sportsbooks or bookies will have a state or race 1/20, meaning bet 20 to win 1, and Faucheux will have it something like 52.3% likelihood.