Why I'm Optimistic About Virginia

[liberalpragmatist]

I honestly believe that Kerry has a strong chance in Virginia. Why? At least according to electoral-vote.com, Bush has never polled over 50% in any Virginia poll this year except for 1. Look at Bush's data - it's a straight line, with a single spike a few weeks back.

Look: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/virginia.html



Now, that doesn't mean that Kerry will necessarily win it. But Virginia's ripe for the taking. Even if Kerry doesn't win, it's going to be MUCH closer than in 2000 - probably something like 51-49 or 50-49 or 50-48 Bush. And if there's strong turnout and especially if the polls are undersampling Democrats (a strong probability) Kerry could win in a monumental upset. And even if Kerry doesn't win this year, a close finish would signal that Virginia is clearly on a blue track and will be a major competitive state in 2008 or even become a Dem-leaning state.

Keep your hopes up Virginia! (Note: I'm not a Virginian).

[JohnKleeb]

1. If he doesn't win, it's gonna be like whats gonna happen with James Socas

He'll get close and make it more competive same thing with Socas running here against Frank Wolf, he's making in roads and making what looked to be the impossible possible.

[DancingBear]

3. Keep the focus on Socas!

(from a piece of his campaign lit that I got in the mail yesterday) :)

[JohnKleeb]

16. I thought you lived in NH

He's great.

[Jokinomx]

2. Lets hope so...:-)

There is going to be some suprizes I am sure and anyone of them could make the difference.

:kick:

[telex54]

4. I live here in Northern Virginia...

I haven't kept up with the Socas vs. Wolf competition, anyone know if Socas has a chance? I'm ashamed to admit that I do in fact live in Wolf's district and that I don't know how the race is going. :dunce: BUT, I am voting for Socas!

[JohnKleeb]

17. He has a decent one

He's running this time to build up his name rep, and then maybe next year he can win, or maybe even this year.

[sofa king]

5. Occupied Virginia will never surrender!

The DNC has made a point of putting people on the ground outside of Bush national campaign headquarters in Arlington every single day of the week. Some of them have told me that they are regularly chastised by the Bush-bots. But they show up every day, at the very gates of the enemy, and take donations from passersby.

Kerry signs vastly outnumber Bush signs around the county, including the wealthiest neighborhoods. ("Wealthy" is a relative term here, as you can't buy a house for under a quarter of a million dollars.)

It probably makes sense that Arlington remains Democratic despite the fact that its demographics visibly change with the turnover of Presidential administrations. People who work in Washington have seen firsthand how poorly this administration has conducted itself. The talking heads may get a lot of mileage out of those of us who live inside the Beltway, but this time around we may know what's going on far better than those who swallow the terrasaddamlibrul mantra--and it shows.

We can't swing the election ourselves, but Arlington alone can cancel out nearly a dozen conservative counties. We'll do that.

[renegade000]

7. arlingtonians

unite!

[sofa king]

9. Hell, yes! Come to the Democratic White House!

I'm thinking of opening up my house for campaign workers to have lunch, listen to tunes, and maybe have a few drinks and laughs after work. I live just down the hill from Bushco, so it would be an easy walk. I also have two polling places less than a block away, so my place could be an excellent break-spot for GOTV workers and observers on election day.

Whom should I talk to about making that happen?

[spooky3]

13. Hi from a fellow Arlingtonian--call the Arl Democrats

They may want you to fill out a volunteer form; see

http://www.arlingtondemocrats.org/volunteer.html

[spooky3]

15. I think Arlington has supported the Dem in all Pres elections

except one since the 1940s. I think Arl. voters supported Nixon one time.

I think also that a lot of the Republicans who moved here when Bush took over live in Fairfax Co., Loudoun, and further out.

[Fluffdaddy]

6. I'll believe it when I see it on Nov 2nd.................But I'm praying

[popstalin]

8. If signs are any indication

Norfolk looks good for VA. Kerry visited Portsmouth several times early on.

[dolstein]

10. Apparently, the Kerry campaign disagrees with your assessment

They aren't targeting this state anymore. If I'm not mistaken, they haven't run ads in the state since the convention. It would be a shame if Kerry lost this state narrowly, but it would be even worse if Kerry lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

Are any 527 organizations running ads in Virginia?

[Fluffdaddy]

11. I never thought Virginia was in play......So no biggie

[liberalpragmatist]

14. No, I agree we need to focus on more classic swing states

Virginia probably won't be pivotal. And of course, they have internal polls, which may be telling them things we don't know.

Even so, I'm optimistic about Virginia. I honestly believe the margin will be very close and that it'll be a universally-recognized swing state next cycle. And I don't view a Kerry upset in the state as that unlikely, even if nationwide the margin is close.

I agree that we need to focus on Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada as pickups and work hard to defend Wisconsin and Iowa especially (Minnesota will go to Kerry - Bush has never polled higher than 45 or 46% there and never led the polling). I'm just saying that an upset in Virginia is certainly possible and I wouldn't count it out.

[autorank]

12. Hell yes, VA for Kerry. The energy here is high across the state!

The Roanoke paper just endorsed Kerry, not a bastion of liberalism, and NOVA, Richmond look real good. NOVA can seal the deal and I know only a very few people who are not voting.