The October Surprise - can anyone tell me the history?

[Homerr]

What previous October surprises have there been?

[Florida_Geek]

1. George Bush Sr. SR71 flight to Paris to tell Iran

not to allow the hostages free until Reagan got elected because they would get a better deal from Reagan.

[katusha]

2. here's a good read w/ some background

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2000/111300a.html

Nixon appears to have been the modern-day father of the October Surprise strategy, the manipulation of some major event in the campaign’s waning days to stampede voters in one direction or another.

--more--

[secular_warrior]

3. In 2000 we dumped the DUI charge out there a few days before

the election, which wiped out the small lead Bush had in the polls.

[bobbieinok]

6. 'we' did not put DUI report out-.a FOX affiliate did...COVERED UP AWOL

story that broke that Fri afternoon

Bob Kerrey was infuriated by the AWOL story....he and Inouye called a press conference that Fri before the election......a web-site had the conference and many links to the story; it was hacked.....and then all the 'news' media went with the DUI story that the reporter had had since ca July and it was just 'discovered and released'

repubs said it was dem dirty politics....actually DUI story was repub coverup of AWOL story

[Barney Rocks]

4. starting with the most recent

in the 2000 election news of W. DUI charge days before the election. It brought him down by about 5-6 points in the polls, and without doubt brought the election a lot closer.

1996--this time the "October Surprise" was against us--Clinton was ahead in the polls by quite a bit--I think an average of 17 points. News was leaked that he had received illegal funds from the Chinese and it cut his lead dramatically--instead of a big win, he only received a plurality 49% of the vote.

1992--Days before the election--polls began to trend towards the incumbent--Bush the original. October Surprise--the announcement that indictments for Iran Contra were coming. Bush 1 sank like a stone in the polls.

There is usually something and I could go back much further. Although the most famous of October Surprises (the release of hostages from Iran) really has never been proved and remains speculation (but most of us Democrats believe it is true even though it has never been proven).

[JohnOneillsMemory]

5. 1980 October Surprise documents were discovered by Robert Parry. Read.

http://www.consortiumnews.com/archive/xfile2.html
>snip<
"I obtained permission from the House International Relations Committee to examine the task force's unclassified papers. I was told that there had not been a single prior request for these records that had been collecting dust in an obscure office off the Rayburn House Office Building's parking garage, across from the U.S. Capitol.

To reach the files required taking the Rayburn building's elevator to a sub-basement floor and then winding through the musty underground garage almost to the car exit at the building's south side. To the right, behind venetian-blind-covered windows was a small locked office. Inside were a few desks, cloth-covered partitions, phones and a rumbling old copying machine.

At the rear of the office was a converted Ladies' Room, now used for storage. The task force's taped boxes sat against the wall, under an empty tampon dispenser which still hung from the salmon-colored tiles. I began pulling the tape off the boxes and poring through the files. Not only did I find unclassified notes and documents about the task force's work, but also "secret" and even "top secret" papers that had been left behind, apparently in the haste to wrap up the investigation.

A few "secret" depositions were there, including one of a senior CIA officer named Charles Cogan. Cogan testified that he had attended a 1981 meeting at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., in which a high-ranking Republican commented to Casey about their success in disrupting Carter's "October Surprise," the term used to describe President Carter's hope for a last-minute release of the 52 American hostages held in Iran.


FBI Wiretaps
Another box contained a "secret" summary of FBI wiretaps placed on phones belonging to Cyrus Hashemi, an Iranian financier who had worked for the CIA in 1980. Hashemi also was a key Carter intermediary in the hostage talks. But in fall 1980, the wiretaps showed Hashemi receiving a $3 million deposit arranged by a Houston lawyer who claimed to be associated with then-vice presidential candidate George Bush.

After the 1980 election, the Houston lawyer was back on the phone promising Hashemi help from "the Bush people" for one of Hashemi's failing investments. And shortly after President Reagan's Inauguration, a second mysterious payment to Hashemi arrived from London by Concorde, via a courier for the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI).

There were notes, too, describing Bush's active involvement in monitoring President Carter's Iran hostage negotiations. According to one set of notes, dated Oct. 27, 1980, Bush instructed foreign policy adviser Richard Allen to funnel last-minute information about the negotiations back to him via Theodore Shackley, the CIA's former associate deputy director for operations.

Still, another file contained a summary of all "secret" and "top secret" State Department records on arms sales to Iran in the 1980s. One "top secret/sensitive" document recounted private meetings that Secretary of State Alexander Haig had with Middle Eastern leaders during a trip in May 1981. The leaders told Haig about the continuing secret flow of weapons from Israel to Iran.

I also found a "confidential" October Surprise report that had been sent by Russia's Supreme Soviet informing the task force that Moscow's national security files contained evidence that Casey, Bush and other Republicans had negotiated secretly with Iranians in Europe in 1980.

All of this information had been excluded from the House task force report. And after the report was completed, the documents were left unceremoniously behind on the floor of the converted Ladies' Room."