If Bush Hadn't Invaded Iraq, Would We Have These Oil Prices???

[DemocracyInaction]

One of the major, major factors in the price of oil is the "fear factor"---speculation on whether the arousing of terrorists throughout the Arab world because of our Iraq invasion might either cause a strike at Saudi facilities and/or a general anti-government uprising in the kingdom. I think sometimes campaigns forget the American people cannot draw a line from dot to dot. Why is this not specifically and forcefully pounded by the Kerry campaign?? Bush's lies are taking one hell of a bite out your wallet, stalling our economy, and causing stock market jitters. If it gets worse, we are going to have an outright economic crisis here.

[benburch]

1. Unlikely.

In fact, Iraq cheating on the amount of oil it was allowed to sell was a major factor in making OPEC production quotas ineffective for the last decade.

[htuttle]

2. IIRC, the US was buying 3-6% of it's oil from Iraq in 2002

In fact, in December 2002, the US imported 11.3 million barrells of oil from Iraq. That made it the fourth largest supplier that month, ahead of Kuwait.

Iraq was producing about 2.5 million barrels per day in 2002. Today, it produces almost nothing for export. I'd have to say the invasion had something to do with it...(even beyond the speculative pressure).

on edit:
Here's where I found these numbers -- I can't vouch for them:
http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aairaqioil.htm

[dqueue]

3. No...

No, we wouldn't. The majority of the price increase has been to cover the perceived cost of new security concerns. In short, instability in Iraq has led to more instability and distrust throughout the Middle East. It's easy to demonstrate that it's more dangerous than ever to get to the oil (thanks to bushco).

[madrchsod]

4. yes

us dollars going to buy stuff from china-china needs oil to produce that stuff-they buy oil with us dollars...it`s the wal-mart business model grand?
i forgot we did buy oil from iraq and if i remember right most of that went to california because thir refinories processed cleaner iraqi crude....so instead of yes it`s a "maybe"..oh my god i changed my idea based on facts!!! i`m a flip-flopper

[Lilli]

5. Yes - IMO

Because one way or another there is money to be made.
It just would have had a different face.

[Mister K]

6. No.....

One of the main reasons that the price is so high is the instability in Iraq and the middle east. Iraq was pretty stable when Saddam was in command.

[Career Prole]

7. High oil prices? Who cares? It's no biggie! Stop worrying!

Greenspan Not Worried About Energy Prices
Greenspan: U.S. Can Weather Oil Cost Rise
Greenspan says oil price agony milder than in 1970s

So how are they doing it, Al? Are they holding your family hostage somewhere and saying they'll be alright as long as you keep lying?
They must have you by the nuts somehow...what is it?

[shivaji]

10. I recall paying $1.35/gallon in 1976 for gas. Now it is $2.09/gal

but cost of living has more than doubled since 1976. My guess is
until the gas goes to $3.00/gal there will not be a hue and cry
about gas prices.

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. They're deliberately holding down the prices -- even now, as

bad as they are.

How else could it be that prices are only marginally higher now, at $55/bbl than they were when the price 'jumped' up to $38/bbl? We should be paying $3-$3.50 a gallon right now.

(on edit)

And just wait a couple months for the heating oil prices in winter. After Kerry's in office.

[Career Prole]

15. The repercussions of high oil prices spread farther out

than the gas pump. A lot farther.
My electric bill has shot up because of it. The cost of producing/transporting anything will be passed on to the consumer, not the stockholders of the businesses involved.
The corporation I work for has already wailed about increased costs in the ol' company newsletter which means another year of no bonuses, no raises, maybe shave the benefits some more.
The stockholders might never know that their check came from our paychecks instead of company profits because Greenspan damned sure isn't going to tell them.

[shivaji]

17. Yes, but oil prices affect gas prices immediately, and are

noticed by consumers immediately. Since demand for
oil products is increasing yearly, especially from the
burgeoning ecomomies of China & India, oil and therefore
all other fuel prices can go only one way....UP.

I think we should expand use of renewable resources fuels,
such as fuels derived from corn. We also have not built
new refining plants in the US for several years.

[hatrack]

8. Yeah, probably

Global oil demand is now rising at 3% annually, thanks in large measure to China's stunningly rapid industrialization. It's just over 80 million barrels per day and OPEC has tacitly admitted that it can't meet that demand.

American domestic production has been declining since 1970, and will not recover, no matter where we drill. In 1973, at the time of the first oil shock, we imported 28% of our oil. In 2003, we imported 63% of our oil.

Wood McKinzie, one of the major oil analytical firms, published a report, which I posted yesterday on Environment/Energy, that the world's top ten oil companies had three years in a row (2001-2003) of negative net returns from oil exploration & development - that is, the oil they found couldn't pay for the cost of finding and developing it.

When infinite demand meets a limited resource, you're only given only so much time before things start to crack.

[shivaji]

9. Even if we had more oil available, there still would be shortage cuz

we have not added to our refining capacity in 10 years, but
the demand for petroleum has increased 40 to 50%.

[troubleinwinter]

11. ?? What does your (p)Resident have to say?

Has he EVER suggested conserving?

Oh, I remember now.... he wants to ban off-road deisel vehicles, and invented hydrogen cars.

[Pragmatique]

12. The oil prices have gone up...

because somebody's got to pay the millions of dollars spent on the current political campaiign. You don't really think the big oil companies are paying their own way do you?

[DemocracyInaction]

13. Pragma---Amen and welcome to DU

You nailed it.

[AG78]

16. I don't see why not

bin Laden and his boys hate Saudi Royal Family policy as much as they hate ours.

The Bush Doctrine doesn't help the situation in any form whatsoever. But eventually, maybe not currently today had Bush not invaded Iraq, we'd face the same problem.

China and India's growing industrial infrastructure. Our own continued need for more and more oil.

As much as I hate this administration(as well as the movement in general), and everything they stand for, I can't blame higher oil prices on them alone. They're part of the problem, but not the only source.