Want some cheering up? Read this.

[requiem99]

After some thought and study, I do not see how Kerry can possibly lose this election, barring a major October surprise.

First of all, here is the worst case scenario as things stand today, not counting the continuing Kerry surge in the polls because of the debates. I am only giving Blue states to Kerry that he is either far, far ahead in, or that Zogby's latest poll awards to him outside the MOE (Zogby is the best pollster, as everyone here knows, as he was right on the last 2 elections and his methods are much better and nonpartisan)



First of all, look at the supposed "battleground" states in which I have awarded to Kerry, he is leading in each by either a massive amount or a solid lead. Oregon by 10, Washington by 10, New Mexico by 11.5, Iowa by 7, Minnesota by 8, Michigan by 10, Penn by 5, and Wisconsin by 2.5 -- Only Wisconsin is within the MOE, and this 'snapshot' was taken BEFORE debate number 2, which will add at least another 1-2 percent onto Kerry's edge. Notice that while Kerry is losing in this graphic, you must remember that this map assumes we will lose Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, and Arkansas, all of which could POSSIBLY go to Kerry. (Some less likely than others)

Remember, if Kerry wins ANY of these states (except NV or WV which would, each won alone, equate to a 269/269 tie using my above methodology) he wins the white house. The key is getting out the vote, which Dems are not going to have a problem with this year as our base is pissed as hell about Shrub and his policies of death and decay.

Lets take a look at what could potentially happen if the 18-24 voters come out in droves and swing a few percentage points per state to Kerry. (I've bet a lot of money they will)



Guys, this last map is not nearly as insane as it seems. Look at the contrast between TN and LA for example: Survey USA has Kerry down by NINETEEN points, but Zogby (and his proven results) says the race is less than a 1 point margin. LA, by contrast, is claimed to be a 8 point race by Rasmussen, who has called Michigan (in which Zogby says Kerry is up 10) an exact tie. By this, we can assume that LA is a 3-5 point margin at WORST, or a statistical dead heat (with Kerry possibly up as much as 2-3) at BEST. I've looked at ALL his battleground polls, and Rasmussen has been rating Bush consistently 3-10 points higher than Zogby.

At this point, it all comes down to who you trust. Zogby, with his proven results and your street sense that this is THE year for the pissed off democrats, or "the rest".

Either way, we must make sure to get out the vote, and we can't lose.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

1. Kick I want to see some analysis of this

from DUers who know more than I do about this stuff!

[JohnnyCougar]

7. I would take Mississippi and West Virginia off there...

No poll has shown Kerry even close in Mississippi or Louisiana. West Virginia hs been getting worse. Arizona seems like a long shot, and so does North Carolina. Unless Kerry picks up more momentum after the third debate, I doubt he will get all the rest of the battleground states.

He hasn't had a lead in Tenessee for a while. He has never had a lead in Virginia. These states may be close, but I doubt we will get them withour another significant surge.

Nevada, Florida, and Ohio will be extremely close. New Hampshire is his, and he will get 4 EV's at least from Colorado thanks to the breakup of their electoral votes. That gives them 268 to work with. Basically, he has to take one of these: Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, or Arkansas. As long as he keeps all of the Gore states, which I think he will do. He is locking up Michigan and Pennsylvania, forcing Bush to defend Ohio and Florida, and taking the fight to states that no one expected Bush to ever lose, like Virginia, Arkansas, Colarado, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

I think we have good chances, folks. But we still need to fight strong.

[requiem99]

9. Read my post again. My reasoning is clear.

[JohnnyCougar]

15. Not clear enough to defend Mississippi and Louisiana.

Zogby isn't perfect. He messed up in the 2002 Congressional elections. Everyone is wrong once in a while. While it would be nice to get this many votes, I think the Kerry campaign should focus on Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Arkansas and Florida. Because winning any three of these states wins the election.

[DU9598]

2. New Jersey

Why do you have New Jersey as red? It should be blue in the worst case scenario, right?

[requiem99]

4. New Jersey IS blue, that little "NJ" thing is red because of a bug.

[senseandsensibility]

3. I appreciate your efforts to spread

the good word, and hope that you're right!:D

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. I certainly hope you are right....here's what I think of to cheer up -

Last election, when all we knew about * was that he was an idiot and appeared ridiculous in the debates - also fresh from the skewering of Clinton by the right, and the media play-ups of Gore's exaggerated noises, etc at the debate - Gore STILL took the popular vote and it took an act of thievery to give * the election.

Here we are after 4 vicious, awful, corruption laden years, perhaps the most divided, hateful, regrettable period ever for our country - NO WAY that anyone who voted for Gore is going to go to * - and I would suspect a few who voted for * are sufficiently embarassed to either stay home or come out for Kerry - Nader will not be as much of a factor....and so many young voters who should be mobilized into voting......

So, I also hope that I am right.....I don't think I can take 4 more years (or even a few more weeks) of our idiot in chief, our naked emperor...

[tritsofme]

6. When has Zogby proven his Interactive polls?

Never would be the correct answer.

[requiem99]

8. I'm inclined to trust the guy after he's been right on in the last 2 elect

[tritsofme]

12. I think his national numbers are rock solid

But I think his Interactive polls are worthless.

They weren't very good in 2002, and that's all we have to look at.

[hatrack]

10. I have some serious questions about Mississippi, Arizona & Virginia

Mississippi? I really don't think that's in the cards, and the same is likely true for Arizona. Virginia has shown signs of Democratic life, but most of what I've seen for the state has been anecdotal reports from people posting here about state fair campaign tables, yard sign/bumper sticker counts and the like.

However, I think NC may be doable, given the extraordinary voter registration numbers I've read about from there. A report last week gave a figure of (I believe) 465,000 more registrations than 2000.

FL - dunno. Even if we can get past the Coconut Curtain effect of JebCo & his slimy electronic voting systems. With a reasonably untainted count, it's possible, but I'm doubtful.

I think Arkansas is overlooked, and that even a few appearances there by Kerry or (better yet) Kerry & Clinton would definitely help.

I'm not even so sure that Missouri is all that red. KOMU-TV in Columbia ran a survey last week that showed Bush & Kerry within one point of each other among likely voters.

Yucca Mountain may well swing Nevada our way, and Colorado's in play, from all I've read.

[requiem99]

11. I'm not sure MI is in play, however my point was...

That we may have a demographic that is not being represented here (18-24 and first time voters) that may blow the election out for Kerry. Its a thought. The second map is purely conjecture at what "may" happen, the first is reality, or at least reality as I believe it to be. Hah!

[proud2BlibKansan]

Missouri is not red yet

I am working with moveon in MIssouri. We are having great success contacting voters and signing up volunteers. Unless the Bush folks are working this hard, no way will he take MO.

[the_outsider]

13. Is MD comfortably in the pocket? I thought it was close.

[JohnnyCougar]

20. Not anymore

Maryland is a lock unless Kerry is filmed blowing goats.

[Terran]

14. The only thing is...

People at DU seem to shift back and forth over what pollsters to trust. I have recently heard people praise Rasmussen and I have heard Zogby excoriated here in the past. It only recently seems (to me anyway) to have come to light that Gallup's methods often favor republicans, so now Gallup is the enemy. I'm not saying you're wrong (god I hope you're right!), I'm just saying I guess I still don't know if *any* of the pollsters are really taking into account some of the factors discussed here before, like cell phone use and likely versus registered voters.

My feeling is that the huge numbers of new registered voters distinctly, although not hugely, favor Kerry and not Bush. I also think you're right that Missouri, where I live, could go for Kerry.

[requiem99]

18. Look, my personal belief is that there are huge factors that are unknown

And almost ALL of them favour the dems. Cell phone usage, the 18-24 vote, the first time voters who are all regging for getting rid of bush, the overseas vote which is also extremely anti-bush, there are just so many things going right for us.

If we don't win this year, against a megalomaniac half-witted incompetent, we may never win again. (If we even have another election ever again)

I'm calling it, personally, as a Kerry landslide on election day. He'll get 300 EVs easily, probably closer to 400, maybe even more.

[Terran]

26. I agree

My gut tells me all those things are true. And generally I don't pay much attention to the polls at all, for the reasons I described above. I'm pretty much moving along on a degree of faith in the factualness of the things you describe.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

19. Pollsters not accounting for all the new registrants

Pollsters not accounting for all the new registrants - many states are reporting an enslaught of new registrants - most of whom are Kerry supporters. I think if we all keep working hard and make sure people vote on Nov 2, we have won the race by a very comfortable margin! We are going to show * what hard work is all about!

BTW, this is my first post here - I have been lurking for a long time, couldn't remember my log in name or password - but had the time today to search my email for it :)

Have enjoyed reading most of the posts here!

[meganmonkey]

22. Welcome to DU

from another Newbie!

:toast:

[Terran]

24. Hey, welcome to DU NoBushSpokenHere!

Glad to hear from you. I hope you're right.

[newyawker99]

32. Hi NoBushSpokenHere!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Lefty48197]

16. Here's my analysis:

We do have a chance at winning this thing.

If we win Ohio, we win it all.
If we win Florida, we win it all.
If we win all of the Gore2000 states, adding Missouri will win it all.
If we will all of the Gore2000 states, adding West Virginia AND Nevada will win it all.

Personally, I feel the upcoming election will be decided by one (or all)of the above four scenarios.

The real catastrophic failure for us Democrats, that the Republicans are hoping for, includes us losing Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. If that happened, then we would, most likely lose the election, but we could still eke out a victory IF we won Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and West Virginia, so there are many possible outcomes.
Like Requiem99, I don't really expect Kerry to lose ANY of the states that are listed as vulnerable. However, I am still quite concerned about the polls in Wisconsin, and also the possibility of a "Nader factor" there, or perhaps in Oregon, or Iowa. We're not out of the woods yet in those states.

As for your last scenario, I like that a lot. It represents all of the states, that I never thought we had a chance at winning, that suddenly seem winnable. Except Mississippi. Did you really mean to include them? The others are right on: Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Lousiana, Florida, Ohio. This group represents a Democratic landslide, and I think it's an outside possibility this year. Do I expect it to happen? No. I'll settle for a 270-268 win. If I were a betting man, I might put a little money on winning most of the states in that last graphic.

Here's a neat map to help figure this stuff out:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

As for Zogby, I've never had too much faith in them.

[meganmonkey]

17. What about fraud?!

I hope your right but sometimes I am so cynical that I think I'd be more surprised by a Kerry win simply because the voting situation is so f*cked up in so many states...
I swear I am not a defeatist, I guess by assuming the worst I can be pleasantly surprised.

[Leilani]

21. Sorry! That map is silly!

I am an optomist, but I m also a realist.

Kerry will win Mississippi when pigs fly!

I will just say Haley Barbour was elected Governor there by a comfortable margin not long ago.

As far as the other states go, I will not do an analysis. Let s just say, you are looking at longest of long shots.

This will be a close race.

[requiem99]

25. The reality is, this race was never as close as people want you to think.

Thats why you automatically write off a state like MS. Do I think Kerry will win MS? Probably not. However, I do think it is possible, albeit a long shot, and I'm confident his margin of victory will not even be close.

A good thing, too, because it will prevent cheating. The only way Shrubco will win this time is by wide scale electoral fraud, which, while a possibility, would pretty much cause a civil war.

[Quixote1818]

23. The second map looks like Bill Clintons against Dole. Interesting

[Bluebear]

27. That was exactly my impression.

[requiem99]

28. I didn't even notice that, but it helps argue my points I believe.

[4_Legs_Good]

29. Great analysis! But why do we need cheering up?

It seems that DU has been kinda depressed the last 2 days. I'm not sure why? 'Cause the Right Wing Corporate Media Machine is calling the last debate a tie? Yeah, that's depressing, but overall, I think we're standing better than ever, and, for the first time I don't feel like I really need to worry about Kerry. I trust him (finally!).

Or is the nervousness mostly about that anti-Kerry show?

That's probably it.

david

[requiem99]

30. I think the last 4 years have taken their toll on all of us. N-fucking-T.

[4_Legs_Good]

31. Now THAT'S the truth!

It's weird when I start thinking so short term!

All I can think about now is Nov. 2. Geesh, I've almost forgotten the last four years of torture - and we're not even the ones who suffered the most.

Thanks again for the analysis and the continuing hope!

david

[requiem99]

33. Small kick, still important!