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Every time Bush tries to brag about the economy or about domestice issues, he will come across as insensitive and out of touch, just like his father. When he talks about job creation, people will know that the job situation is worse, not better, even before Kerry rebutts him. Bush will be lying about them, blaming them, and proving he doesn't even care about their problems, much less want to fix their problems.
Whenever Bush tries to convince voters that they are better off than they were before, that the budget deficit is someone else's fault, not his, that outsourcing is good, people will dislike him more and more, no matter how tough he talks or how humorous he seems to be. Kerry just has to sit back and shoot longballs over the fence, and prove that he has a plan.
Another point: Kerry doesn't hit Bush's record enough. Sometimes, rather than citing facts to prove Bush wrong, Kerry should just wave his arms around and say "look around you. Are you or your friends doing as well as this man says you are? He thinks you are doing fine. Do you think you are doing fine?" He needs to appeal to people's experiences, rather than just statistical representations of their experience.
I disagree with you on the flip-flop issue, though. That's the number one lie against Kerry. That's the excuse I hear all the time as to why people don't like Kerry. Kerry needs to fight it in each debate. He also needs to turn it on Bush. "He calls me a flip-flopper. He flip flopped on x, he flip-flopped on y, he thinks I'm flipflopping because he's jumping all over the place so much he can't tell when someone else is standing firm."
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