Osama Bin-Laden in custody??

[Tina H]

I was half-convinced that the U.S. had Osama in custody and was waiting to release him in a sort of "October surprize!"

Although I guess it is still possible that he is in custody (or surrounded), the latest audio tapes (if authentic) seem to make my custody scenario less likely. They said on CNN that the audio tapes referenced "recent events," but they didn't get specific about what recent events or how specifically they were "referenced."

Does anybody have any thoughts about whether Osama is in custody now?

[Finder]

1. Since Jan or Feb, 2002

I expect his head will be handed over soon. That is not him on the tape.

[stopbush]

2. IF he's in custody, then it would be a smart play by busco to keep

issuing these tapes at regular intervals to give the impression that he's still at large.

[Tina H]

3. how do you think they are getting the references to recent events?

torturing the real Osama to say what they want?

not him on tape?

tapes aren't really referencing recent events, content of the tapes being mischaracterized in the media?

[damnraddem]

4. OBL is old news.

He's not of much use to the Bushistas unless there is another 9/11 -- but that would be risky for them, too.

[sofa king]

5. Psst.

I've heard whispers that there's a big operation planned for June/July in an attempt to kill the popularity boost Kerry will otherwise get from the convention. Osama may already be on ice, or he may be surrounded, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Most accounts indicate that we have a pretty damned good idea where he is.

Ask yourself this: why did all this prison scandal stuff erupt now? Maybe it's because after they bagged Saddam in December the pros--the ones who know better than to e-mail effing torture pictures to their friends--were taken off the case in Iraq and the job was given to unqualified regular soldiers. I wonder what the superstars are doing, now?

[sofa king]

6. addendum

Now there is a story which claims that most of the abuse came from the aftermath of the inflammation of violence in November, particularly on a single day, November 8. That conflicts with my above theory and I'm unable to resolve it with the firsthand information I have tried to develop.

That doesn't mean that the whispers I've heard are bullshit. Instead, I would suggest that the above remains mostly consistent; instead, it suggests that perhaps this circle of "abuse" was recorded under the aegis of far more competent hands than I was previously willing to credit.

If that's the case, we're fucked. Totally fucked. Because if that's the best we've got, well... we're fucked.

[Tina H]

7. I don't know . . .

but if they think they are keeping OBL surrounded (but technically at large), that strategy would seem to entail a high degree of risk that he will slip away.

If he really is captured, then I just don't see why our superstars would be playing risky games with these intermittent audio tapes. I mean if Bush got a 5 point bump every time a new audio tape was released, then I would be right with you. However, that isn't what is happening.

As things stand, if the tapes are fake, it seems like they are a risky trick for the * admin -- a risky trick without a corresponding benefit.

What do I mean by risky?
DU search on: "how wicked is that"

What do I mean by *without* coreresponding benefits?
I mean the October 2004 capture or killing of OBL would be substantially the same size bump for * regardless of these intermittent tapes.

I somehow doubt that the superstars of the MI community are thinking:
"Yeah, America will be excited if we 'capture' OBL in October 2004, but it will be so much more excited because we have been priming the pump with these outrageous audio tapes that nobody seems to care about a whole lot right now." This is non-sequitur type thinking.

[sofa king]

8. You could be right.

...But I'm not saying that MI is calling the shots, here. Instead I suggest that someone is holding them back. Someone's telling them what to do, and I have a sneaking suspicion that it's Scooter and Karl, not some general.

Who cares if it's just fifty guys with antique Damascus rifles and a dialysis machine? The press isn't going to see anything we don't show them. When it comes time to take Osama out--or let the story out that we already have him--it will have invariably been a heroic battle with minimal casualties on our side--except perhaps a football player?

Whether he's loose or already on ice, Osama's ass is worth an election to the kleptocrats in charge, and they know it. The story works either way. Why didn't you tell us you got him six months ago? We were like, penetrating their networks, dude. Why did you wait so long to take him out if you knew where he was? We only thought we knew where he was, and we were preparing for the mother of all battles, and these things take time when you're working with our best buddies the Pakistanis.

Doesn't matter either way, because nobody's going to know for sure what happened except the people who did it, and these guys don't have cell phone cameras.