It will be nearly impossible to know whether any changes that occurred shortly after 1997 were caused by the buyback (reduction of firearm prevalence) on the one hand or by one part or another of the various laws and regulations (not limited to gun policies) passed as part of the overall program. This is because all those things began at virtually the same time throughout the country as a consequence of instituting a comprehensive nationwide program. If one wants to evaluate the effectiveness of a policy change, it is almost imperative to make no other policy change at or near the same time that might also impact what one wishes to impact with the subject policy change.
The effects of the new laws and ban/buyback on crime and suicide rates cannot be certain for another reason. It is entirely likely that any changes observed in rate trends could be results of things unrelated to the laws and ban/buyback—and there is no shortage of things that are widely known to affect suicide and crime rates. At least the most significant of such things would have to be identified and accounted for in order to separate their effects from the effects of the laws and ban/buyback. Still, we can check for presence of a possible impact.
Because of these problems, it would not be legitimate to suggest that the ban or buyback (or other changes that occurred at about the same time) may have had an impact unless the impact is observable immediately after the ban/buyback, starting in either '97 or '98. The change we must check for in the case of each statistic of interest is a step change in the value of the statistic (for example, a rate going up more than the usual year-to-year variation), or a change in the rate at which the statistic changes from year to year.
More at http://www.gunsandcrime.org/auresult.html#homi
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