Guns and the 'But Everyone I Know Voted For McGovern!' Effect

[friendly_iconoclast]

The number of people here in the Gungeon who claimed that the majority of Americans support
an assault weapons ban always amazed me. How come this vast army of voters never seemed to
express themselves at the polls? I've even read here of a Stonecutters-style conspiracy to 'subvert the
will of the electorate', supposedly perpetrated by the NRA.

Where do they come up with this stuff?, I thought. And then it hit me- it's the "But Everyone I Know
Voted For McGovern" effect.
This phrase was supposedly uttered on the night of Richard Nixon's reelection in 1972 by a wealthy
and well-connected donor to the Democratic Party. Now, in and of itself, this statement is quite accurate.

The problem comes when the person who expresses such sentiments believes that the majority
of Americans that they are in contact with represent the views of the majority of Americans.

It wasn't true in the Presidential election of 1972, and it's not true today with regard to gun laws.

The problem with people that support gun control is: Most of them don't own guns and don't
know anybody that does. They underestimate the number of gun owners in the U.S., they don't
know what kinds of guns are popular (or legal) , and they don't know the types of guns that *are* used for criminal purposes.
Or the rates of said crimes.

They don't know what Federal laws govern firearms, and they are not familiar with current legal
precedents WRT guns.

That's why, when various members of the current Administration tried to peddle the idea that
"Mexican gangsters are getting machine guns from American gun shops, so we need to change our
gun laws" (you know, like "Saddam Hussein will have weapons of mass destruction Real Soon Now"), it actually got some traction.
Fortunately, that idea is going nowhere at the moment.

[bluestateguy]

1. You'll have to forgive them

They don't get outside of the Bos-Wash corridor too often; nor do they get outside of the San Francisco/LA cocktail party circuit very often.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

2. and don't forget NYC

;)

[ContinentalOp]

4. Yes, let's overlook the experience of people who live in major population centers.

And take anecdotal evidence from people who live in sparsely populated rural America. :eyes:

[virginia mountainman]

6. Good, now that we got that straightened out!

We can get some "sensibility" restored to our Bill of Rights!!

HA HA HA!!!!!! :rofl:

[spin]

12. Many major population centers allow gun ownership and concealed carry...

and the experience of people in live in the very restrictive major population centers like Chicago and Washington D.C. would show any rational person that honest people should be allow to own firearms for self protection against the criminal element.

[krispos42]

13. The experience of people who live in major population centers...

...is that of the failure of strict and strictly-enforced gun laws to reduce crime or violence. However, they see this as a sucess of sorts, so... :shrug:

[ContinentalOp]

3. I think you have that backwards.

Somewhere around 35-40% of households have guns so gun owners are in the minority.

[virginia mountainman]

5. Too bad election results don't back you up...NT..

[ContinentalOp]

9. They seem to back me up just fine.

I mean, Obama is a scary, gun-grabbing socialist Muslim and yet he won by a landslide. :shrug:

[krispos42]

14. you mean "muslin", right?

:rofl:

He was not seen as a gun-grabber. He was seen as an honest, intelligent person of priciples who would be an agent of change on a variety of issues of much greater prominance than the gun-control idea of the moment.


If his stump speeches had been mostly about bans and confiscations and restrictions and prosecutions, he'd still be the Junior Senator from Illinios.

[friendly_iconoclast]

8. True, but a minority that tends to vote at a higher rate than average.

Any politician in a representative democracy would ignore those numbers at his or her peril.

And they are not automatically a Borg-like collective directed from the NRA control bunker.

The problem is that a *lot* of gun control advocates are fed a steady diet of dis- and misinformation
from various groups. Now, us Second Amendment types are able to use the net to counter the propaganda
peddlers. Only some of this effort is run by the NRA. Most isn't

[Callisto32]

11. Well,

then I am glad that we have a system that, at least in theory, is designed to protect the rights of minorities do disallow mob rule in the form of 50%+1 means the other 50%-1 just have to deal with it!

[krispos42]

15. Which puts us at about three times the percentage of African-Americans

And a fair number of people that don't have guns used to have guns or would like to have guns, or agree with gun-owners even though they themselves choose not to own guns.

[virginia mountainman]

7. Great Post...

Someone needs to post a link to the Poll taken here at DU, showing a CLEAR majority of us, where gun owners... And finally our voices are starting to be heard in OUR party!!

:toast:

[tucsonlib]

10. You Forget Another Demographic

And I suspect it's a fairly large group. I happen to be a member, as are several of my friends.
We're all gun-owners, you see. I enjoy target shooting, and I also keep guns for home defense. I currently own six firearms.
But here's where my friends and I differ with many of you here in the Gungeon:
We would never vote for someone based solely on how they stand on gun control. And we believe that anyone who would is dangerously misguided. We don't get all bent out of shape when the government passes stupid and ineffectual legislation like the AWB. We view such laws as annoying, not as some sort of major assault on our "freedom". And certainly not as one more step on some slippery slope toward total confiscation. Why? Well, first of all we're grounded enough in reality to know beyond any doubt that no administration, Democratic or Republican, is going to take away our guns. Why would they go to all the trouble, when a few strokes of a pen can give them unlimited powers? And please, don't try and convince us that the RKBA is all that stands between us and a hostile government takeover. We're not that simple-minded. And finally, my friends and I recognize that the 2A is open to interpretation. And you know it, too. All of you realize that certain restrictions on the RKBA are necessary and desirable. Anybody out there in favor of unrestricted access for convicted rapists or violent psychotics? Of course not. So my friends and I find it rather disingenuous when you portray this as a black or white, Pro-Gun vs. Gun-Grabber issue. We all favor gun control. We differ only in degree.
And, oh yes, stop complaining that you're "tired of the Dems losing elections because of the gun control issue". Trying to convince them to change their platform obviously hasn't worked. Wouldn't it make more sense to spend your energy on countering the right-wing fear machine by reassuring that frightened, paranoid group of single-issue, gun-owning voters that no, they needn't worry about Obama grabbin' their guns. Or Pelosi neither. Then read them the rest of the Bill of Rights.