Forbidden nuclear card in NE Asia

[teryang]

Provocative analysis of northeast Asian changes worth reading.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/FJ07Dh02.html

Seoul, Tokyo and the forbidden nuclear card
By Yoel Sano

<As hopes fade for a speedy resolution of the crisis over North Korea's nuclear-weapons program, there have been indications that South Korea and Japan - Pyongyang's principal enemies in the region - might themselves have been or might be considering embarking on the road to nuclear weapons, or at least giving thought to the option, and not for the first time. While the short-term threat stems from North Korea's nuclear weapons, over the longer term both South Korea and Japan are increasingly pursuing a path of "strategic independence" from their principal security guarantor of the past 60 years, the United States.

If both nations possessed nuclear weapons, that arguably would defuse the North Korean nuclear crisis, as well as change the geostrategic landscape of North Asia. Regardless of what Washington and Beijing wants, and even though it is not yet inevitable, the chances that South Korea and/or Japan may go nuclear in coming years has risen substantially of late.

Both Seoul and Tokyo are aspiring to greater global influence, and to this end they may see benefits from possessing their own nuclear forces even if North Korea is eventually disarmed. The big "losers" in any potential arms race could be the US and China.<snip>

<...By contrast, South Korea's perception of China is more complicated. Although Beijing sided with North Korea against the South during the Korean War, Seoul has managed to forge warm ties with China, despite the fact that formal bilateral relations were only established as late as 1992. China last year overtook the United States as the biggest purchaser of South Korean exports, and Seoul is courting Beijing in the hope that the latter will use its influence over Pyongyang to improve inter-Korean relations. Many Korea-watchers believe that once Korea is reunified, the peninsula republic will gradually move into Greater China's orbit, as has been the case in past centuries...<snip>

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