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RestoreGore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-02-07 11:22 AM
Original message
Impacts of Climate Change
Edited on Mon Apr-02-07 11:23 AM by RestoreGore
This is surreal to me. I sit typing about this crisis everyday relentlessly regarding the climate crisis and the global water crisis because I feel my soul crying out to do something, so I try to inform people both on and off the Internet about this and what WE MUST DO TOGETHER to try to stop the worst of it from taking place... and here I sit typing again and crying because I am thinking about the world we have made for our children and the fact that in this country there still seems to be a barrier being put up.

How can we allow this to happen? There should still be much more urgency about this here than there is. Are we just going to let this planet slip away from us because we were too distracted by petty political BS and other trivial distractions? Does half of Greenland have to fall into the ocean to wake us up? When we have tens of MILLIONS of environmental refugees with no place to go? When we then have wars perpetually over water and land? I really am running out of words to express how I feel about this. Sometimes I just want to shout WAKE UP to people on the street.

This isn't something to be used for political advantage. This IS what is happening in the real world, and I am disappointed in this country apart from those who are fighting to bring this truth out with solutions...but we need more people to bring a groundswell for change in their own lives all the way to demanding that change from their local to federal officials to businesses, and especially our children. Are people that lazy and uninformed that even with the fate of this planet hanging in the balance and they knowing it, they would still rather sit and relegate the work to one person or a few? We are waaaay beyond that now. Glacial melt is the key to this, and based on what I have seen and read, we are in BIG trouble NOW. We are destroying our planet.
~~~~~~~

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/41184/story.htm
Impacts of Climate Change
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INTERNATIONAL: April 2, 2007


Following are impacts of global warming outlined in a draft UN climate report due to be released in Brussels on April 6.

The draft, to be discussed by scientists and government experts in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is looking at the regional effects of warming:

AFRICA

-- Reductions in the area suitable for agriculture, and in length of growing seasons and yield potential, are likely to lead to increased risk of hunger.

-- An increase of 5-8 percent (60-90 million hectares) of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected by the 2080s under various climate change scenarios.

-- Current stress on water in many areas of Africa is likely to increase, with floods and droughts.

-- Any changes in the productivity of large lakes are likely to affect local food supplies.

-- Ecosystems in Africa are likely to experience dramatic changes with some species facing possible extinctions.

-- Major delta regions with large populations, such as the Nile and Niger rivers, are threatened by sea level rises.


EUROPE

-- The percentage of river basin areas with severe water stress is expected to increase from 19 percent to 34-36 percent by the 2070s.

-- Millions of people are likely to live in watersheds with shortages in western Europe.

-- Under scenarios of a fast rise in global temperatures, an extra 2.5 million people a year will be affected by coastal flooding by the 2080s.

-- By the 2070s, hydropower potential for Europe is expected to decline overall by 6 percent, ranging from a 20-50 percent decrease in the Mediterranean region to a 15-30 percent increase in Northern and Eastern Europe.

-- A large percentage of European flora could become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct under a range of scenarios.

-- By 2050, crops are expected to show a northward expansion. In northern Europe, wheat yields may gain by 8 to 25 percent by 2050. But in the south, yields may range from a fall of 8 percent to a gain of 22 percent by 2050.

-- Forested area is likely to increase in the north and decrease in the south, with a redistribution of species. Forest fire risk is virtually certain to increase greatly in southern Europe.

-- Small alpine glaciers will disappear, while larger glaciers will suffer a volume reduction of between 30 to 70 percent by 2050.

-- Tourism to the Mediterranean might fall in summer and increase in spring and autumn.

-- A rapid shutdown of the Gulf Stream bringing warm waters northwards across the Atlantic to Europe -- viewed as a low probability -- could have severe impacts such as cutting crop production, more cold-related deaths, and a shift in populations south.


NORTH AMERICA

-- Population growth, rising property values and continued investment increase the vulnerability of coastal regions. Any rise in destructiveness of coastal storms is very likely to bring "dramatic increases" in losses from severe weather and storm surges.

-- Sea level rises and tidal surges and flooding have the "potential to severely affect transportation and infrastructure along the Gulf, Atlantic and northern coasts."

-- Severe heatwaves are likely to worsen over parts of the United States and Canada.

-- Ozone related deaths are projected to increase by 4.5 percent from the 1990s to the 2050s.

-- Projected warming in the western mountains is likely to cause large decreases in snowpack, earlier snowmelt, more winter rains by mid-century.

-- Climate change is likely to increase forest production. But by the second half of the century, the dominant impacts will be disruptions from pests and fires. Forest areas burnt each summer in Canada could rise by between 74 and 118 percent by 2100 compared to now.

-- Vulnerability to climate change is likely to be concentrated in specific groups and regions, such as indigenous peoples and the poor and elderly in cities.


LATIN AMERICA

-- Glaciers in the tropical Andes are very likely to disappear over the next 15 years, reducing water availability and hydropower generation in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador.

-- Any decline in rainfall in semi-arid regions of Argentina, Brazil and Chile is likely to lead to severe water shortages.

-- By the 2020s, between 7 and 77 million people are likely to suffer from a lack of adequate water supplies.

-- A rise in sea level, weather and climatic variability are very likely to have impacts on low-lying areas, buildings and tourism, mangroves, coral reefs and the location of fish stocks off Peru and Chile.

-- Temperature increases of 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and decreases in soil water would turn eastern parts of Amazonia to savannah from tropical forest. In turn, that could threaten many species.

-- The frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean might increase.

-- Rice yields are expected to fall after 2020, but soybean yields in south eastern parts of South America may increase.


POLAR REGIONS

-- The extent of annually averaged Arctic sea-ice is projected to contract by between 22 to 33 percent by 2100. In Antarctica, projections range from a slight increase to an almost complete loss of summer sea ice.

-- There will be "important reductions" in the thickness and extent of Arctic glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet this century. Losses from glaciers on the Antarctic peninsula will continue, along with a thinning in part of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The melt will raise sea levels.

-- Northern hemisphere permafrost is projected to decrease by 20-35 percent by 2050.

-- In one scenario of rapid change, 10 percent of Arctic tundra will be replaced by forest by 2100 and 15-25 percent of polar desert will be replaced by tundra.

-- In both polar regions, climate change will mean decreases in habitat for migratory birds and mammals, with "major implications" for predators such as seals and polar bears.

-- Reductions in lake and river ice cover are expected in both polar regions. Warming will affect distribution of fish stocks.

-- In Siberia and North America, there may be an increase in agriculture and forestry as the limits for both shift northwards by several hundred km (miles) by 2050. Major forest fires and outbreaks of tree-killing insect pests are likely to increase.

-- Warming will cut the number of human deaths in winter from cold. But more pests and diseases in wildlife, such as tick-borne encephalitis, could affect humans.

-- More frequent and severe floods, erosion, droughts, and destruction of permafrost "threaten community, public health, and industrial infrastructure and water supply".

-- "The resilience of indigenous populations is being severely challenged," because of climate changes, along with economic and social shifts.


SMALL ISLAND STATES

-- "Sea level rise and increased sea water temperature are projected to accelerate beach erosion, and cause degradation of natural coastal defences such as mangroves and coral reefs".

-- That could curb tourism. Studies in some islands indicate that up to 80 percent of tourists would be unwilling to return for the same price if corals and beaches were damaged.

-- Ports, as well as roads and international airports which are also often by the coast, are likely to be at risk from rising seas.

-- Reductions in rainfall would have a big impact in cutting the size of underground freshwater stocks in islands such as Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. Some small islands states are investing in desalination to offset projected water shortages.

-- Rising temperatures and decreasing water availability is likely to increase diarrhoea and other infectious diseases in some small island states.

-- Without measures to adapt to change, agriculture economic losses are likely to reach between 2 and 18 percent of 2002 gross domestic product by 2050 for both higher islands such as Fiji and low-lying islands such as Kiribati.

-- New microbes, fungi, plants and animals are already causing changes to wildlife on sub-Antarctic islands.

-- Costs of adapting to change may be high, and options limited.


AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND

-- Many ecosystems are likely to be altered by 2020. Among the most vulnerable are the Great Barrier Reef, south-western Australia, Kakadu wetlands, rainforests and mountain areas.

-- Water security problems are very likely to increase by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia, and parts of eastern New Zealand away from major rivers. In Australia, there could be a 10-25 percent reduction in river flow in the Murray-Darling basin by 2050.

-- Development of coastal regions could lead to property coming under threat from rising sea levels. By 2050 there is likely to be loss of high-value land, faster road deterioration and degraded beaches.

-- In southeast Australia, the frequency of of days when bush fires threaten is likely to rise by between 4 and 25 percent by 2020.

-- Increased temperatures and demographic changes are likely to increase peak energy demand in summer which could lead to black-outs.

-- Farm production is likely to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand due to increased drought and fire. If enough water is available, longer growing seasons and less risk of frost are likely to aid farming in much of New Zealand and parts of southern Australia.

-- In south and west New Zealand, growth rates of economically important plantation crops are likely to increase.

-- The elderly will be at risk from heatwaves, with an extra 3,200-5,200 deaths on average per year by 2050.
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YankeyMCC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-02-07 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
1. K & R
Challenging times ahead indeed.

Thinking just about the impact on the Mediterranean ecology - this is where a significant portion Human Civilization blossomed and now we're going to loose it - of course similar sentiment could be made for other regions particularly the changes described for Latin America where other complex civilizations rose - that alone should give people a fraking clue.

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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-02-07 12:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. Dry your eyes!
Stop torturing yourself. I believe you have badly misjudged your own part in this. You are not to blame in any way. And a LOT of people are freaking out recently.

We are caught in the wheels of both historic (political) and epochal (natural) changes. We Liberals have been well-taught to take personal responsibility, but this is something we can't fix with altruistic personal initiative. A lot of it is going to happen no matter what we do. There is noting to be gained by feeling guilty that we can't single-handedly clean the Augean Stables using only enviro-friendly cleanser!

That is not to say that we should do nothing! But we must also realize that our place is to preserve as much good as we can (human life is included in that) as the world we have known is replaced with a new one.

We are not destroying our planet. Some of it is a natural change, and some of it is because of our recklessness, but the Earth is more resilient than most of us fear. It is humanity that will suffer, as it usually does. And the suffering will probably be terrible. I think we're steering into a Malthusian catastrophe. But the world will survive, probably without irreperable damage.

I do not call for your complacence. There is plenty of work to do to ease our collective passage through the straits. We don't HAVE to accept a human die-off, or a new dark age, or any other forms of man-made hell. If it does happen, there is still much we can each do to mitigate the damage. In a great humanitarian disaster, every small act of mercy helps.

Nor do we need to "wake people up". People are already awake. Sleep is not the problem; weakness is. It is hard to be concerned about whether the Ghawar oil field is collapsing or the Iberian peninsula is becoming a desert when you're struggling "to put food on your family". You can be the sentinel of change for many such people.

History is happening, whether we want it to or not. It may even result in you, or me, dying a cruel and painful death. So we can't change the course of that which is inevitable. But we do get to steer.

One of the most helpful things any of us can do is to appreciate and enjoy what we have. In a social-activism context, it means promoting the values of life. Our activism, therefore, ought to be joyful, not morose. I've been reading about these problems most of my life, but I am happy I have found the means to make myself one of the survivors -- I hope! To die under history's wheel ignorant and uncomprehending would be the tragedy. To die enjoying life and doing as much as possible to empower survival and life's enjoyment is as much as I ask for.

After the Roman Empire fell (albeit with millions of deaths), life expectancy increased, hours of work per week fell, and the quality of life on the Italian peninsula was much improved. It would be half a millennium before the Black Death again threatened Europe (or the world). Early Christians, enlightened Pagans, Muslim missionary-scholars, and just plain folks did what they could to minimize the destruction that the fall of the world's premier empire was causing. If we are living in a similar age, ours will be a similar task.

Don't cry before the funeral. There may not be a need for one.

--p!
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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-02-07 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Well said. nt
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RestoreGore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-03-07 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. yes, I know, I am hopeful as well.
Thank you for your response.
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Turbineguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-02-07 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
3. The Global Warming Liberal Plot argument
Edited on Mon Apr-02-07 12:49 PM by Turbineguy
is invalid. And here's why. While there is plenty to go on to say that we are in a natural, cosmic warming cycle, the effects of that cycle can be clearly exacerbated by the human element. We could very well find ourselves in a critical heat flux where because of the greenhouse gas, ozone depletion or whatever, causes an irreversible earth temperature rise because of the heat coming from the sun. That would mean that once we get to the critical period, even cutting greenhouse gasses to zero would not stop the temperature rise unless the heat coming in from the sun is reduced. Decelerating the greenhouse gas production now would put us in a situation where although the earth temperature will continue to rise, it will eventually level off and then start on the down slope of the warming/cooling cycle. The earth temperature cycle would fall behind the solar cycle. In a critical heat flux the earth temperature will not level off at the solar heat peak and will still rise even though we are already on the cooling side of the slope. That earth temperature will not start to drop until much later in the cycle and could in fact be so late that the next rise would meet it and therefore never cool off.

But to conservatives who are more interested in finding out who's right in this argument, it's better we do nothing and run the whole course on this thing.

For weather/history wizards it might be interesting to know how theses cycles work. For example, is the time (x axis) and the temperature (y axis) always the same? If the temperature has a more extreme swing, does that cause the time component to compress? (I'm asking the question because I do not know if this is the case.)
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