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Edited on Tue Feb-06-07 10:50 PM by NNadir
1 billion.
People seem to think that living off renewable energy is a new idea, but it is not. There is a reason that people stopped relying on renewable energy, and it had everything to do with the same issues that still apply: Renewable energy is diffuse. It is not reliable. It does, in fact, incur an external cost, and a significant one at that.
I do not know how long world uranium resources will last, but I fully expect them to last for several millenia, if not much, much, much longer, especially if humanity, either by means of tragedy or by rational action, reduces the population significantly.
There's a lot of hand-waving about geothermal energy. It's one of those happy face panaceas about which people love to wax romantic.
Geothermal energy is the only source of "renewable" energy that does not derive as its primary source from fusion reactions in the sun. In fact, the source of this energy is decay heat from nuclear reactions - primarily alpha decay - in the earth's core. The scale of this energy gives some idea about how much uranium and thorium is in the earth.
Whether we can get at it is another question, but I will tell you for certain that traditional ores are at best the tip of the iceberg. The energy density of uranium is so high that the rules of "peak this" and "peak that," are not all that relevant.
The earth's oceans are saturated with respect to uranium. This uranium is recoverable at a reasonable thermodynamic penalty, ironically because of the solar energy represented by ocean currents. Thus if uranium is removed from the ocean, it is likely to be replenished by recycling and weathering of the crust. It is thus conceivable, but hardly proved, that uranium is in fact a renewable resource. That said, it is reasonable to behave as if this is not the case, and that thorium and uranium are exhaustible.
The economic costs of recovering uranium from seawater are well understood. Although the costs in financial terms are significantly higher than current costs, they are not actually prohibitive at all.
That said, the construction of 3000 nuclear plants - a reasonable number that I think is almost certainly necessary - would not remove the desirability of conserving and impetus to conserve. We must conserve and we should conserve, but that does not mean that we should not use the only truly new form of primary energy discovered in the last several hundred years.
I cannot say whether this notion about uranium as a renewable resource will hold, but I submit that the matter is not one for immediate debate in any case. Unless five out of six people agree to commit suicide for environmental reasons, renewable energy other than nuclear is not a reasonable option for the near term.
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