If Chris gets into the Gulf, the water temps are very hot- but ...

[philb]

If Chris gets into the Gulf, the water temps are very hot:

Eastern Gulf of Mexico Coast
About CWTG | Temperature Conversion

Water Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit
Present Temperatures Last Updated: Tue Aug 1 21:06:00 2006 UTC

Location Present Temp Key West FL(MLRF1) 87.4
Temperatures JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
...... 69 70 75 78 82 85 87 87 86 82 76 72

Naples FL Present Temp 88.9
Average: JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
66 66 71 77 82 86 87 87 86 81 73 68
Pensacola FL 89.1
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
56 58 63 71 78 84 85 86 82 74 65 58
Buoy 42003 Panama City 86.9
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
75 76 77 78 80 83 85 85 84 82 81 79


But if it heads towards the East coast, those water temps are very hot too:


Southern Atlantic Coast
About CWTG | Temperature Conversion

Water Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit
Present Temperatures Last Updated: Tue Aug 1 21:06:00 2006 UTC

Location Present
Temperatures JAN FEB MAR APR May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Nov Dec
(present) Charleston SC 88.5
Average
50 50 57 64 68 71 75 79 80 82 84 84 83 82 79 73 68 63 54
Savannah Beach GA (41008) 86.5
51 52 59 65 69 72 76 79 82 84 86 85 84 83 80 75 70 64 54
Fernandina Beach FL 83.7
55 55 62 68 72 75 78 81 81 83 84 84 84 83 81 76 72 66 58
Daytona Beach FL
(41009) 85.6
61 59 65 70 73 75 78 79 80 80 80 80 81 83 82 79 76 71 65
Key West FL 87.3
69 70 75 79 79 82 83 86 86 87 87 87 87 86 86 83 80 76 72

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/index.html

All currently well above average for any month in past years

[babylonsister]

1. You know what's weird? I live in TX but am

leaving for NY Saturday. :eyes: I saw a program this weekend that said NE storms move at a crazy pace. Two days to hit somewhere near the gulf might only take 8 hours to hit LI. :scared:

[Gman]

2. There's still a lot of shear in the Gulf

and it's not really forecast to let up. Chris will get no bigger than a Cat 1.

This is not turning out to be the hurricane season everyone expected. Of course, global warming notwithstanding, seasons like last year only happen once in maybe every other lifetime.

[BushOut06]

4. It's barely August - give it time

Doesn't need to be a blockbuster season like last year. Two years ago, Hurricane Charley hit on August 13th (I remember it all too well). Within two months, Florida got hammered by three more hurricanes. There's still plenty of time for stuff to happen. Although I certainly hope not!

[Maddy McCall]

5. Shear is already dropping--expected to continue to weaken. And...

There's an eddy that broke off of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, out in the Gulf off of the coast of Mississippi, almost identical in placement although a little smaller than the one that strengthened Katrina.

Because eddies like this are warm to 150 meters, any hurricane or tropical storm that hits the Gulf can intensify very quickly. Gulf Loop eddies are perfect fuel for hurricanes.

[Purveyor]

3. Projected track...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5_sm2+gif/025055W_sm.gif

[Maddy McCall]

6. Models

From www.skeetobiteweather.com

[babylonsister]

7. It's way too early to predict, but very much worth watching. nt

[Maddy McCall]

8. Actually, BAMM and GFDL do a pretty good job of early predictions.

The late models are more accurate, but I think that the early models are pretty tight in agreement that this one's going to enter the Gulf and more than likely traverse the Gulf Loop eddy.

The models were way ahead of the curve with Katrina. NHC is too conservative in their predictions, for my taste.

Last year, I watched the models from the time that Katrina was a tropical depression. On the Thursday evening before Katrina hit, the most reliable models predicted a NOLA landfall, so my family stocked up, and we were glad we did, because NHC didn't move their track until Saturday--and the stores were crammed with people trying to find batteries and water as soon as the NHC shift occurred. Same thing with my aunt and uncle in Port Arthur...so I'm pretty watchful of the models, and I find them to be highly reliable.

[Gman]

9. We're keeping an eye on this one too

after we had to evacuate from the Corpus area because of Rita.

[Maddy McCall]

10. My aunt and uncle evacuated from Port Arthur and ended up...

in Center. It took them nine hours to make a three hour drive.

They said that evacuation was horrible.

Their house had some pretty bad damage when they returned.

Good luck to you guys over in Corpus.

[skids]

11. Looks like it decided to take a vacation in lovely puerto rico.

A front is pushing it south and weakening it, but looks like PR is going to take a hit. IANAC but looks like Chris might not survive past that unless the front rotates by with less thrust than it looks like it will.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

Still kinda wondering about that upper level low approaching Florida -- do hurricanes ever form from those punching down through onto some disorganized moisture, or is it always a bottom up process?

[skids]

12. Weird -- reality disconnect.

The 11 O'clock tracking charts come out showing Chris nowhere near where it's remains appear on the map. Am I missing something?

(On EDIT -- oh I guess you can see it better on the visuble loop now. Funny that you cannot see even a clue of where it is on the WV loop.)