Expert: NYC, San Diego overdue for hurricanes

[n2doc]

By Dr. Rick Knabb

updated 6/1/2011 6:03:44 AM ET

I had an ulterior motive in assembling this new list of cities. I was hoping they’d send me to each one to do thorough “research” on their hurricane history, because they are among the most desirable places to visit or reside in the United States.


Now to the real reason for this list. During my trek along the U.S. East Coast on the NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour in May, I talked to many longtime residents who all said essentially the following: “I’ve lived here for decades, and we’ve not had a really bad hurricane, so I don’t think I have anything to worry about”. Then there were a few others who had experienced a direct hurricane hit, and generally their refrain was: “Until then, I never thought it could be that bad.”

All of that got me to thinking about the cities that have gone the longest without a direct hit from the core of a “significant” hurricane. That resulted in this list of selected cities, in order of how many years it has been. For some of the cities, their last “significant” direct hit was from a major hurricane, while for others that have no known direct hits from a major hurricane, their last direct hit from any hurricane is the determining factor.

These and dozens of other U.S. cities, including those hit very recently, all are vulnerable and could be hit this year or any year, and everyone needs to be hurricane-prepared. Many residents of the cities on this list, however, might be among the starkest examples of people who truly believe their hometown is immune from hurricanes. As a result, they might not have chosen to make sure they have enough insurance to replace their home if damaged or destroyed by a hurricane.

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[FBaggins]

1. Hurricanes aren't like earthquakes.

If earthquakes strike a given area an average of once every 50 years, then going 75 years without seeing one probably does mean that next year has a better-than-average change of seeing an earthquake... because pressure is likely building up along the fault.

But if a given area is hit by a hurricane about once every 50 years... the change is still roughly 2% that one will strike in the coming year.

[MindPilot]

2. Yeah, and Wichita is probably overdue for a tsunami.

We hardly ever get lightning...a hurricane is not really on the radar...so to speak.

[robcon]

3. Unscientific nonsense, IMO.

There aren't "due-dates" for hurricanes.

I've live in NY since I was 8: we got hit with some major hurricanes (Carol, Donna, etc., when I was a kid), but the lack of recent hurricanes has nothing at all statistically to do with the likelihood of another major hurricane.

With the notable recent inaccuracy of predicting "total hurricanes per season" I think the prediction of where they will land is even a lot less precise. Total crap, IMO.

[Pab Sungenis]

4. The argument is that because we've gone so long

we're unprepared for what, statistically, will eventually happen sooner or later.

For example, my City is the area that the Jersey Shore or the Jersey side of the Delaware Bay would evacuate to if a major storm aimed at either, and we are unprepared for refugees. And we're really unprepared if one came up the bay and turned eastward hitting us.

[XemaSab]

5. Nobody in California is prepared for a hurricane

:(

[MindPilot]

6. For the same reason Wichita is unprepared for a tsunami.

It is not going to happen here because our ocean simply is too cold to support a hurricane.

[XemaSab]

7. It's happened before

The sea inward of the Channel Islands is warmer than the open Pacific.

[kestrel91316]

8. Perhaps. But it's not enough square miles of warm water to produce squat.

[MyUncle]

9. I read this, it is really stupid and ill conceived.

I lived in Honolulu and now San Diego, 1 and 2 on the list. Every USA coastal city and town in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Atlantic should be listed ahead of San Diego and Honolulu even if they got hit by a hurricane yesterday.

The warmest the Pacific on the West Coast will likely get in at least the next 10 years is about 75 degrees for about a week. That plus the jet stream out here - high altitude winds shear off the tops of hurricanes the likelihood of a cat 3 or higher storm hitting San Diego is about 0.

Honolulu is higher, but Pacific hurricanes are so much more random in motion than the Atlantic spawned storms. Their erratic motion, plus they have to get past the cold water east of Hawaii makes a cat 3 plus storm hitting Oahu much lower than any US East Coast city in August or September.

That guy should get his license and ability to write stupid stories like his revoked.