Leading Peak Oil Theorist Now Believes in Peak Demand, Says We Have To Go Green

[bananas]

I missed this story from last April:

http://www.businessinsider.com/leading-peak-oil-theorist-now-thinks-were-at-peak-demand-oil-wont-break-100-2010-4

Leading Peak Oil Theorist Now Thinks We're At Peak Demand, Oil Won't Break $100
Vincent Fernando, CFA | Apr. 7, 2010, 12:02 AM | 2,951 | 23

Colin Campbell, a leading peak oil theorist who is a retired geologist, has discovered the pricing mechanism.
After record prices and an economic downturn caused oil consumers to change their behavior, and oil demand in the developed world to fall, he's now a believer in peak demand for the developed world. We're already past it even.

Reuters:

"I have changed my point of view about future prices," said Campbell, who used to think the peak in conventional oil production, which he believes happened in 2005, would lead to a relentless price surge.

Instead, the record rally led to a peak in demand in the developed world.

"Peak oil drives prices up in the first place. It has its own mechanism. We're sort of at peak demand right now," Campbell told Reuters from his home in the village of Ballydehob, West Cork. "I think presently the price limit is about $100."

We frequently see peak oil believers who are highly accomplished scientists, but with little economics background. It shows how peak oil theory would make total sense if we existed in a world without economic forces, such as behavioral responses to rising or falling prices.

The funny thing is that Mr. Campbell is now probably too bearish on oil prices with his $100 near-term limit. With oil prices at $86 as it stands, it's pretty feasible they could break $100 if the world economy keeps growing at a decent clip. That's only a 16% move, which from the perspective of a market participant is nothing and definitely within the realm of possibilities.

The Reuters article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/06/us-oil-peak-idUSTRE63539420100406

Peak oil man shifts focus to peak price, demand
By Barbara Lewis
BALLYDEHOB, Ireland | Tue Apr 6, 2010 1:16pm EDT

(Reuters) - The economic shock of global recession has led a prime exponent of the theory conventional oil output has peaked to shift his view of the consequences, but he still thinks the world has to go green.

<snip>

For those who have painted alarming pictures of civil unrest as the world economy is forced to move away from conventional fuel and pay high prices for it in the interim, an inbuilt price mechanism to limit demand and move the world to other forms of energy should be a good thing.

"We have no alternative but to go green," Campbell said.

But he does not think reduced demand is enough to offset the gravity of peaking supply. He still sees a possibility of social anger as millions are forced to change their lifestyles in a too-sudden structural shift from economic growth driven by cheap conventional fuel.

<snip>

[NickB79]

1. The most relevant sentence in the OP

"he's now a believer in peak demand for the developed world."

Unfortunately, that leaves about 3/4 of the world's population in the undeveloped nations, particularly China and India, left to push demand.

[GliderGuider]

2. The relative levels of oil demand growth in the USA and Chindia

With all due deference to Colin Campbell, global demand isn't about to peak any time soon.
Whether it can be satisfied is another question. Peal Oil is still a supply issue: