Will climate change burst the global 'food bubble'?

[Barrett808]

Lester Brown argues the pressures of rising population, consumption, water stress and global warming will pose the first serious challenge to civilisation through our food

The world is in the midst of a "food bubble" that could burst at any time: that's the conclusion of the eminent environmentalist Lester Brown, who I met yesterday to discuss his latest book.

He argues we are "one bad harvest away from chaos" and that "food has become the weak link in our civilisation". Here's my summary of his reasoning.

The bubble exists because food is being produced by the unsustainable use of its key resource, water. The most striking example is Saudi Arabia where, Brown says, the looming exhaustion of a major acquifer is moving the nation from self-sufficiency in grain just a few years ago to zero production in 2012. Statistics trip off Brown's tongue as easily as water drips off the crops he is describing. ...

Will climate change burst the global 'food bubble'?

[DCKit]

1. Alternatively, will climate change allow us to farm areas that haven't been farmed in 3K years.

The ME was the original Eden, the breadbasket of the world. Looking at it now, you'd never know it. Some areas are going to get drier, some wetter and a few will stay the same.

For all we know, China may be getting ready to really cash in.

[meow mix]

3. agriculture depends mostly on glaciers (which are rapidly disappearing)

as far as most the articles i have read that is the main issue.

i could be misinformed of course.

[DCKit]

7. I get what you're saying, but I'm talking about regular rains and monsoons...

returning to areas where they've been absent in our recorded history.

The ME and the Med. had to have had "better" weather in the past than they do now, or there would have been no chance of developing the civilizations they did.

[pscot]

8. North Africa was oce the granary of Rome

But I read recently that the Sahara seems to be moving northward, across the Mediteranean. Conventional wisdom has it that rain follows the plow, but it seems that the opposite is true.

[customerserviceguy]

2. The Saudi's still have a lot of oil

And it's about to hit record prices this year. For awhile, they can buy whatever food they need, and can accelerate desalinization efforts, if economical. I would imagine that if $200/barrel oil comes and stays, that solar technologies would become quite economically feasible.

[bhikkhu]

4. The point of the example is the Saudi's aquifer is done, and so is their agriculture

A large part of US agriculture only exists because of the Oglalla aquifer which will at some point also be done - its also being drawn down unsustainably.

A civilization built on non-renewable resources is a problem.

[jimlup]

5. Yes, I think we are in trouble here

Unforeseen consequences of climate change will put us in scramble mode for at least the next 50 years. I suspect the world "food" situation is in a very unstable equilibrium right now. A small push one way or the other and blame: Half the human population of the planet is starving.

[GliderGuider]

6. Lester Brown gets it.

The lead Horseman is Famine. I wish it were not so, but the bald truth is becoming clear.