5% chance that humans will be extinct by 2100

[wtmusic]

"Modern humans have roamed the earth for the past 120,000 years. If we continue to act as we have in the past and as we are acting now, the scientific consensus is that there is now more than a 5% chance that human beings could be virtually extinct in as little as 90 years from now.

The reason you haven't heard about it though is because the press hasn't really connected the dots between 3 different highly respected scientific sources: IPCC consensus report, a paper that appeared in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (that was cited by Time Magazine), and a book, "Six Degrees" by Mark Lynas, that was brought to my attention by Bob Corell, a leading climate scientist who appeared on 60 Minutes in 2006.

If you put the 3 sources together, you'll reach the same conclusion I did."

http://skirsch.com/politics/globalwarming/Extinction.htm

Lynas' book won a General Prize from the Royal Academy. This is not hyperbole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees:_Our_Future_on_a_Hotter_Planet

[Botany]

1. 100% chance I will be extinct in 2100

n/t

[elocs]

6. I just thought the same thing myself. By 2050 I would be 102.

It would be worth living that long to see the demise of the While People's Party when our now minorities collectively become a majority.

[joshcryer]

23. I hope that doesn't change your willingness to keep this sort of catastrophe from occurring.

[TheCowsCameHome]

2. Raise you, I'll be gone by 2050.

[Poll_Blind]

3. Did they mention roaches? I have a bet riding on this! n/t

PB

[wtmusic]

5. All life.

There is one under the sink of my first apartment, however, who will still be alive, still laughing at me.

[joshcryer]

24. What about extremophiles?

[RKP5637]

4. That long, huh!!! Thanks for posting. n/t

[jwirr]

7. hmmm that leave us a 95% chance we will not.

[wtmusic]

9. Probably a 50% chance that half of all species will be gone

with billions dead from starvation. According to the clathrate gun hypothesis, once we pass certain "tipping points" there's no turning back.

Just a matter of time.

[stuntcat]

17. yah

I have a real real hard time feeling concern for the fate of the humans when we're going to wipe out so many strong and important species.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. There's an 83% chance you won't kill yourself playing "Russian Roulette."

Are those odds good enough for you to try your luck?

[gcomeau]

8. Yes, it is hyperbole.

EXTINCT?

Do you have any idea what it would take to render humans *extinct*?

Global warming is bad, but it's not exterminating the human race in 90 years. Kill a lot of people... sure, not only possible but decent odds it will happen. But *exterminate*? The only way humans are getting exterminated is if something does enough damage to the planet to render it literally uninhabitable. And no, global warming is not that thing. Carpet-nuking the planet might do it, but that's about the only human-caused event I can think of that has a shot.

[wtmusic]

11. Hard to believe, isn't it.

When you've done your homework (i.e. actually read Six Degrees and possibly James Hansen's Storms of my Grandchildren, and have a better understanding of the clathrate gun hypothesis) you will be able to better refute leading climate experts.

Yes, the planet could be literally uninhabitable.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. The one link that is meant to explain how "the planet could be literally uninhabitable" is broken

That's:

But one guy from the UK (who has hardly gotten any press in the US) Mark Lynas, has done the research on what this means. Lynas spent 3 years of his life poring over 10,000 scientific papers and found that, although it doesn't sound like a lot, a 6ºC temperature rise will pretty much wipe out just about every life form on the planet, us included.

Thats 2nd link is broken. Now, this seems to be about methane hydrates, and the Wikipedia page you link to points at this report as the latest on possible future problems. That says:

While a catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere
in the next century appears very unlikely, it is very likely
that climate change will accelerate the pace of persistent
emissions from both hydrate sources and wetlands. Current
models suggest that wetland emissions could double in the
next century. Methane release from the hydrate reservoir
will likely have a significant influence on global warming
over the next 1,000 to 100,000 years.

http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap3-4/sap3-4-brochure.pdf

(Detailed methane chapter: http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap3-4/sap3-4-final-report-ch5.pdf )

Again, nothing talking about mass extinction in the next century. I notice that you have changed "virtually extinct" on Kirsch's page to just "extinct" in your thread title, so you've increased the hyperbole yourself.

Since you've read the "6ºC temperature rise will pretty much wipe out just about every life form on the planet" claim yourself, can you either point us to a version of it, or explain it?

[Statistical]

14. 6 deg temperature rise won't wipe out mankind.

6 deg temperature rise MAY (hence the 5% not 100%) result in massive release of methane from oceans.

The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region "boils over," ejecting a large amount of methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land. Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide. Firestorms carry smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years; the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism. Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is difficult to predict

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. The web page linked in the OP claims a 6 degree rise will make man 'virtually extinct'

The 5% is the chance of a 6 degree rise:

By 2100, according to the IPCC consensus report (see Table SPM.3 on page 13 and footnote 5 on page 2 which explains the ranges in the table), there is a 5% chance that the average temperature of the planet will rise by more than 6.4ºC. ... Lynas spent 3 years of his life poring over 10,000 scientific papers and found that, although it doesn't sound like a lot, a 6ºC temperature rise will pretty much wipe out just about every life form on the planet, us included.

I accept the "5% chance of a 6 degree rise"; it's the IPCC figures (with assumptions about economics, fossil fule burning and so on). Lynas apparently claims that will almost wipe out mankind. I suspect that means Lynas thinks a sudden massive methane release would be inevitable for 6 degrees warming, though the scientific literature doesn't seem to think so. And he also thinks the extra warming because of it would wipe most species out, it seems.

[bananas]

26. The risk of nuclear winter is much higher

Doomsday Clock: "First and foremost...nuclear weapons" http://www.thebulletin.org/content/doomsday-clock/overview
Failure rate of deterrence: about 1% per year http://www.nuclearrisk.org/
Nuclear winter: http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter
Nuclear winter - Jeff Masters: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x193139

[joshcryer]

27. The Doomsday Clock considers Climate Change. The nuclear arms treaty between US and Russia...

...actually put the clock back by a minute (we were 5 minutes to midnight in 2007).

[joshcryer]

28. They think COP15 means nations are "taking responsiblity" for climate change which is amusing.

http://www.thebulletin.org/content/doomsday-clock/timeline

IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

2010: International cooperation rules the day. Talks between Washington and Moscow for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty are nearly complete, and more negotiations for further reductions in the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenal are already planned. Additionally, Barack Obama becomes the first U.S. president to publicly call for a nuclear-weapon-free world. The dangers posed by climate change are still great, but there are pockets of progress. Most notably: At Copenhagen, the developing and industrialized countries agree to take responsibility for carbon emissions and to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.

[joshcryer]

25. This would make an amazing apocalyptic movie.

[wtmusic]

15. The article also says "greater than 5%"

so call it hyperbole if you wish - there is roughly a 1 in 20 chance that humans will be gone by 2100.

Here is an excerpt from Lynas' book which details his projection. It outlines a worst-case scenario, but a very possible one based on analysis of the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) extinction event, incorporating two additional key points:

1) Climate is changing an order of magnitude faster than it did then
2) There are thought to be a more methane hydrates stored in global reservoirs than ever in history

http://www.marklynas.org/2007/2/3/the-six-degree-world-hellish-vision-of-life-on-a-hotter-planet

[Statistical]

12. They aren't saying 100%.If worst case "clathrate release" scenario happens it likely kill us off.

Global warming won't be what kills us. Global warming will simply be the spark to an ecological holocaust.

Massive methane release from ocean beds will do 4 major things:
1) As methane is released into ocean it displaces oxygen. This will kill off marine life on a scale that is hard to imagine. About 251 million years ago 96% of all marine life went extinct due to a similar process. Expect massive starvation as oceans provide roughly 1/3 of food for mankind.

2) Methane release will also "bubble out" massive amounts of water vapor. Expect flash floods, and torrential downpours. Massive crop failures around the world from flooding during growing season.

3) Large portion of methane will cling to the earth and travel over cities by wind currents. In concentrations between 5% & 12% it becomes explosive. Try to visualize a searing fireball the size of a major city exploding over major cities on a routine basis. A hiroshima sized event occurring weekly or even daily.

4) The particulate release from these explosions will cause global cooling but it will be overrun by global warming. Weather will oscilate between cooling spells and warming spells resulting in massive crop destruction.

The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region "boils over," ejecting a large amount of methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land. Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide. Firestorms carry smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years; the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism. Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is difficult to predict

Now combine all that with human nature. While this is happening do you think humans (a very violent species) will just sing songs, hold hands and "go gently into the night" or you think maybe this will be massive war as nations fight over dwindling resources as projecitons should 99% of planet will die anyways.

Think maybe nuclear weapons will get tossed into the mix also.

So no it isn't a 100% certainty that human race will become extinct but it certainly isn't 0% either.

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. Another chilling scenario

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3318/01.html

[Delphinus]

19. Hey,

that was pretty interesting!

[stuntcat]

20. yeah hey!

neat video, ty

[OKIsItJustMe]

21. Glad to be of service

Not certain what the odds are for that scenario. However... let's say, "better than zero."

[joshcryer]

22. Thanks for bumping this, didn't see it yesterday.

Surprised it has zero recs.

[Dead_Parrot]

29. People might have to stop using so much stuff.

That's never welcome news.