National Academy of Sciences: PHEV market share 4%-13% by 2030. GHG emissions gains < Conv Hybrids

[JohnWxy]

They estimated the maximum market penetration of PHEVs by 2030 to be 40 million vehicles, out of 300 million total, but also produced what they called a "more realistic number" (due to "factors such as high cost, limited availability of places to plug in, and market competition") of 13 million. 40 million / 300 million = 13.3% and 13 million would be 4.3%.

Using their estimated gallons of gasoline consumed by PHEVs (for the maximum penetration case) I computed the gasoline consumption reduction figure to be 22% in 2030. (103 bln gals for PHEVs / 132 Bln gals for the Reference Case.)



some excerpts from the article:

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http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/nrc-phev-20091215.html

The cost to the manufacturer of producing the first generation of the PHEV-10 (2010–2012)(see Prius plugin_JW) is expected to be about $6,300 more than that of the equivalent conventional mid-size car (non-hybrid), including $3,300 for the battery pack. Similarly, the PHEV-40 with a $14,000 battery pack would cost about $18,100 more.
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The maximum practical scenario is the fastest rate at which the committee concluded that PHEVs could penetrate the market considering various manufacturing and market barriers; it leads to about 40 million PHEVs by 2030 in a fleet of about 300 million vehicles.

However, factors such as high cost, limited availability of places to plug in, and market competition suggest that 13 million is a more realistic number, the report says. Even this more modest estimate assumes that current levels of government support will continue for several decades. Subsidies in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars over that period will be needed if plug-ins are to achieve rapid penetration of the US automotive market.


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The lithium-ion battery technology used to run these vehicles is the key determinant of their cost and range on electric power. Costs will decline with technology improvements and economies of scale, but Li-ion batteries are already being produced in great numbers for consumer devices and are well along their learning curves, according to the NRC report. The steep early drop in cost often experienced with new technologies is not likely. The cost to manufacture these vehicles is expected to decline by about one-third by 2020 but only slowly thereafter.

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Relative to hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will have little impact on US oil consumption before 2030, especially if fuel economy for conventional vehicles and hybrids continues to increase past 2020.

{I looked at their chart "Gasoline use for PHEV-10s and PHEV-40s" and the gasoline consumption for the PHEV-40s looked like 103 Bln gals and 132 Bln gals for the "Reference case" which I compute to be about a 22% reduction in gasoline consumption in 2030 (this is based upon "the Maximum Practical rate (of penetration i.e. 40 million PHEVs or 13% of the fleet) and the Efficiency Case from the 2008 Hydrogen Report). I haven't seen this "Hydrogen Report 2008" so do not know what kind of efficeincy they are assuming for the PHEVs.

NOw as far as emissions reductions are concerned, that depends upons how clean/dirty electric power generation is in 20 years. My guess is we MIGHT accomplish a 15% reduction of emissions in electric power sector in 20 yrs. So the emissions reduction would have to factor iin the emissions for charging the PHEVs and would be less than the gasoline consumption reduction.__JW}

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Beyond 2030, assuming consumer acceptance, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could account for significant reductions in US carbon dioxide emissions, if electricity generation plants fired by fossil fuels were equipped with carbon capture and storage systems or replaced with renewable energy or nuclear-powered plants.

According to the report, a portfolio approach toward reducing US dependence on oil is necessary for long-term success. This should include increasing the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles and pursuing research, development, and demonstration into alternative strategies, including the use of biofuels, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

This study was sponsored by the US Department of Energy. The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council make up the National Academies. They are private, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology, and health policy advice under a congressional charter.
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Their estimates for market share in 2030 (13% maximum case) are quite different than the 41% the Electric Power Research Institute mentioned and which the Google "Clean Energy 2030" used. Estimating the market penetration is really more like a guess. THe two important parameters, the price of gas in the future and the price of the PHEVs in the future are extremely difficult to forecast with any certainty and they are interdependent. The price of the PHEVs depends on how many are sold. But the number sold depends on the price of gas to a large degree. The inevitable result is large confidence intervals around any estimate - which makes it verge on a guesstimate.

THey estimated that the price of the PHEVs will decline by a third by 2020 and "only slowly thereafter".


But the conclusion is we are going to have to employ a number of technologies to reduce GHG emissions in the transportation sector, including increased efficiency of ICE powered cars, biofuels, and electrics "and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles" (I think hydrogen fuel cells is probably the most long term of these approaches but still one that should be explored.).

[TxRider]

1. Amazing

And to think since you burn about 1% more fuel for every mph over 55 you drive, a 55mph speed limit like we used to have after the arab oil embargo could save 10-15% or more instantly.

Or moving to diesel cars, which is 30% and can be up to 40% more efficient than gasoline engines.

On a long drive a small turbo diesel car will eat a gasoline hybrid for lunch in efficiency. Imagine a diesel electric hybrid.

The only issue is soot, which is far less of an issue these days and could be taken care of.

As well bio diesel is a better alternative fuel to produce than ethanol.

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. See also…

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=222336&mesg_id=222336

[JohnWxy]

3. oops. I didn't see your post.