NAS Estimates Hydrogen Car Fuel Network & Total Research Costs - $200 Billion

[hatrack]

WASHINGTON -- The United States needs to invest $200 billion in new fueling stations and research to speed up the development and widespread use of hydrogen-powered automobiles, the National Academies of Science said in a report Thursday.

That figure includes about $55 billion in government funding through 2023, with most of the rest coming from the auto and energy industries.

The report said the maximum number of hydrogen vehicles on the roads by that time would be 2 million -- a small fraction of the total U.S. vehicle population of about 300 million cars and trucks.

EDIT

Automakers don't disclose the costs of the few hundred fuel cell vehicles on the roads -- but generally say it costs $1 million to $2 million to produce one in such low volumes. The main expense is the platinum in the fuel stack, which accounts for 57 percent of the fuel stack cost. The stack contains the membrane where hydrogen reacts with oxygen to generate electricity. Another technical hurdle is that fuel cell stack life has increased to only 2,000 hours, compared with the Energy Department's goal of 5,000 hours by 2015.

EDIT

http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080718/AUTO01/807180397

[kristopher]

1. Meanwhile, in the real world, battery electric V2G ready cars are

Meanwhile, in the real world, battery electric V2G ready cars are set to start rolling off the assembly lines of all major automakers and several new startups.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Well, not exactly, no...

Who's announced they're ready to ship EV's immediately and in large quantities?

[kristopher]

5. Distort things much?

ALL of the automakers are committing to EVs and are preparing for large scale production.

H, with a system efficiency of less than 26%, is a boondoggle as big as ethanol.

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. The key word here is "preparing"

There have been lots of prototypes shown. There are limited production runs.

I like EV's as much as the next guy; but mainstream, large production, EV's are still a few years off.

[kristopher]

9. "The key word here is "preparing""

"The key word here is "preparing""

Only in your mind.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. OK, So here's an example

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=162427&mesg_id=162427

Hey! It's a breakthrough in battery technology! Great! (How long do you suppose it will be until it is in large scale production?)

Don't get me wrong; I like EV's; but it's misleading to imply that tomorrow major manufacturers will be selling millions of them. They're close; very close, but not here, yet.

[kristopher]

11. ALL of the major manufacturers have announced plans for production. Period.

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. Uh huh

Now, compare that to this, "... battery electric V2G ready cars are set to start rolling off the assembly lines of all major automakers ..."

Which major automaker has announced that they're going to start rolling EV's off their assembly lines? The i-MiEV seems to be the closest that I'm aware of:

http://www.carcentral.com.au/200807152175/hybrid/electric/mitsubishi-plans-to-be-first-to-market-with-mass-produced-electric-vehicles.html

Mitsubishi plans to be first to market with mass-produced electric vehicles

Written by Nelson Ireson
Tuesday, 15 July 2008



Mitsubishi is expected to be one of the first major carmakers to launch an all-electric vehicle when its compact i-MiEV enters mass production next year. The car was originally slated to be leased on a small scale to government and business groups next year, with public sale beginning in 2010. Latest reports indicate the car’s retail launch has been brought back a year in light of smoother-than-expected preparations for mass production and the favourable sales conditions created by rapidly increasing fuel prices.

The i-MiEV will be Mitsubishi’s first electric vehicle, and will feature a 46kW electric motor powered by 330-volt lithium ion batteries. This will provide the car with a driving range of roughly 160km and should take about seven hours to charge from a household power outlet, reports the Nikkei. Unfortunately for Australian buyers, the i-MiEV isn’t planned for sale here, though it does show what’s possible with current technology when it’s packaged properly.

Advanced battery technology the key
The common stumbling block for carmakers pursuing electric vehicles (EVs) is battery technology. To overcome this obstacle, Mitsubishi has formed a joint venture with GS Yuasa Corporation to develop a new battery pack for the i-MiEV.

In an attempt to curtail long charge times, a ‘quick-charge’ pack is also being developed by power companies, which will see the i-MiEV’s battery being charged to 80% of its capacity in just 35 minutes.

...

OK, so that's a pure EV which may be coming next year; and that's a good thing™. Now, is it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V2G#Skepticism">V2G?

Right now, the battery packs are still too expensive. That's the dramatic thing about the advance I cited earlier, it has the potential to make them much more affordable. However, that's still in the future.

[kristopher]

14. Think what you want, but let's inventory showrooms in three years...

And see what percentage are ICE, H, or EV.

Current technology is capable of providing 150 mile battery packs. Yes, cost is an issue - it was an issue when LCD HD big screen TVs entered the market also. Supply and price are driven by demand and cost of available alternatives. H is no longer even a possibility.

[Nederland]

13. Exactly

And how many years off are those plans?

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. But isn't the gathering of hydrogen generally dependent upon fossil fuels anyway?

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Currently. much hydrogen is produced from natural gas

However, water and electricity are (essentially) all you need to produce hydrogen and oxygen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_production

[kristopher]

6. Water and electricity are all you need.

It makes perfect sense to waste 75% of your electricity to store the other 25% in a low energy density fuel that requires a vast and totally new infrastructure to distribute.

Sure, water and magically free electricity. That's all you need.

H is a limited application storage medium for energy. There may be some niche markets for it because you can set up self contained systems away from the grid; however its inefficiencies preclude it as the choice for the US personal transportation fleet.

[ladjf]

8. That's too expensive for just one idea. There are other clean energy

sources that are cheaper and further along in development.

[OKIsItJustMe]

15. Report is here

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12222#toc