Krugman: Stranded in Suburbia

[depakid]

I have seen the future, and it works.

O.K., I know that these days you’re supposed to see the future in China or India, not in the heart of “old Europe.”

But we’re living in a world in which oil prices keep setting records, in which the idea that global oil production will soon peak is rapidly moving from fringe belief to mainstream assumption. And Europeans who have achieved a high standard of living in spite of very high energy prices — gas in Germany costs more than $8 a gallon — have a lot to teach us about how to deal with that world.

If Europe’s example is any guide, here are the two secrets of coping with expensive oil: own fuel-efficient cars, and don’t drive them too much.

<snip>

There have been many news stories in recent weeks about Americans who are changing their behavior in response to expensive gasoline — they’re trying to shop locally, they’re canceling vacations that involve a lot of driving, and they’re switching to public transit.

But none of it amounts to much. For example, some major public transit systems are excited about ridership gains of 5 or 10 percent. But fewer than 5 percent of Americans take public transit to work, so this surge of riders takes only a relative handful of drivers off the road.

Any serious reduction in American driving will require more than this — it will mean changing how and where many of us live.

To see what I’m talking about, consider where I am at the moment: in a pleasant, middle-class neighborhood consisting mainly of four- or five-story apartment buildings, with easy access to public transit and plenty of local shopping.

It’s the kind of neighborhood in which people don’t have to drive a lot, but it’s also a kind of neighborhood that barely exists in America, even in big metropolitan areas. Greater Atlanta has roughly the same population as Greater Berlin — but Berlin is a city of trains, buses and bikes, while Atlanta is a city of cars, cars and cars.

More: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/opinion/19krugman.html?hp
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I think Krugman gets it about peak oil (Kenneth Deffeyes taught at Princeton, too) but he has to be careful with his words (just like he was forbidden to call bush a liar in 2000). Bad for their advertising revenue.

Even so, the writing is on the wall- and the South East with all its mindless sprawl is going to suffer more than most.

[Warpy]

1. Exurbs out west are often 60 miles away from the jobs

and most of them will probably wither and die in the next few years, joining ghost towns around played out mines as tourist stops. The exceptions are the burbs along the central Rio Grande. Gov. Richardson finally managed to get a north-south commuter rail system up and running and is starting to be accused of prescience instead of a boondoggle as gas prices escalate and so does ridership.

It even runs on biodiesel.

[Fovea]

2. After my stroke, I could no longer drive in Kansas City

the city right behind Atlanta for sprawl.

Since then, I have been bicycling the city awarded ride magazine's worst city to ride in America award last year.

I studied urban history in my college days, and never got the difference between pre war KC and post war KC until I started seeing it by bike. The automobile and its enablers like J.C. Nichols destroyed a vital city, both diluting and choking it with highways.

I have become more radical than James Howard Kunstler, another person who makes profound sense to me. Post oil America is going to hit us harder than any terrorist could. Buy a bike and learn to ride it on the streets. That simple skill may be the difference between being employable and not in a shocking short period of time.

If you don't live in a town with good cheap transit, don't stop yelling until it does.
Move close to a rail siding if possible.

[Bigmack]

4. We've been biking around for the last

ten years or so. FINALLY we're both in pretty good shape - one of the bennies of biking. BUT we do look at our future - old age be looming on our horizon, and we're starting to investigate electric assist bikes. We don't want TOTAL electric - what's the point? But we do live amidst hills, and it probably won't be too many more years until a bit of an assist up hill would be appreciated. Any suggestions about which of the several currently available electric bikes would rank as the "numero uno" of that species? And I agree that Kunstler makes PROFOUND sense, tho I think we're currently at least as, if not MORE radical than James. Ms. Bigmack

[applegrove]

3. Just as the Wallmarts have gutted neighbourhood shopping strips - we need those

same local stores again. I hope Wallmart goes down. They don't make money for the middle class or the poor. Not like local shops.