More environmental good news. Oil over $50/barrel.

[NNadir]

The price of oil rose to $50 in after hours trading.

This ought to cut into Hummer sales.

[happynewyear]

1. I'm figuring oil will hit $100 a barrel

That's one way they can cripple our economy for certain. Break the backs of the American economy with $100 a barrel oil and fuck you America.

Real nice.

Look for prices continuing to escalate! Hell, $50 a barrel is a STEAL!

:dem: :kick:

[Fovea]

2. 50 is the new *floor* not the new roof.

The scarcity model of oil is now going into effect.

Welcome to the new suburban ghost town. Welcome back to the city.

[NNadir]

3. Nonsense. An increase in the price of oil is GOOD for the

economy. It encourages both conservation and innovation. It demands the replacement of inefficient systems with efficient ones. It delays the onset of environmental castrophe and buys time.

It's bad for assholes with two mortgages out because they just couldn't resist buying that Hummer, but for people with creative minds this is a huge opportunity.

[happynewyear]

4. the next great "invention"

Will be a new form of fuel that actually works. I agree with you. The innovators need to begin inventing. If they invented the internet they can invent a fuel efficient way for transportation.

$100 a barrel oil will cause an economic collapse of the entire fabric of our nation. This will force the innovators out there to get with it and INVENT.

And yeah, I've already got a piece of this potential pie. Our greed for oil cannot continue.

Those Hummers and SUVs will become relics of the past that won't be housed for the drooling onlookers in the Smithsonian some day, they'll be recycled into something useful.

:dem: :kick:

[NNadir]

5. Actually very little inventing is necessary.

What is needed is investment in the known technologies that already work.

We live in the Golden Age of Chemistry and Thermodynamics. We know how to replace oil. We don't do it because we are fearful, slothful, lazy and cheap.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Hundred-dollar-a-barrel oil

I recall reading that oil will still be as profitable as it is now at prices as high as $180 per barrel. At that price, we might start making some real progress toward developing better sources of energy.

As painful as it will be, I don't think that the economy will be threatened until the price of oil is even higher than $180 per barrel. I'm not sure what the "magic price" is, but our economy can absorb a lot of price instability before it breaks down.

And you know who's going to do most of the absorbing, don't you?

--bkl

[phantom power]

9. Unless oil becomes too expensive, too fast

If the change is gradual enough, we'll have breathing room to replace it. I'm more or less optimistic that this will work.

One scenario I'm worried about is that our worldwide oil-plutocracy will attempt to keep oil artificially cheap, and cause some sort of price whiplash down the road.

[theoceansnerves]

7. i don't ever expect to see

gasoline less than $2/gal ever again here in southern california.

[jmcgowanjm]

8. My we're optimistic this AM

The entire derivatives market is based on growth.
The only way we get growth is thru
increased consumption of energy.

And more efficient use only brings in Jevon's Paradox.
http://www-dse.ec.unipi.it/luzzati/italiano/didattica/jevonsparadox.htm

There is a huge reason why gasoline $ are being kept down
now. 80% of US cannot afford $3 gas.

October will be a very interesting month.
And the news dump on TurkeyDay Eve
will be unbelievable, if the suits can wait
that long.
And this time next year I expect all of
my relatives between 18-25 to be in the
military.

And remember infrastructure change with
any new energy source.

We have to contract our energy demand.

[snowFLAKE]

10. Most Americans will hardly notice $3 Gasoline

Sure, they'll do plenty of whining, but will keep right on buying SUV's (my point: Actions speak louder than words).

Anyhow, the trend away from carbon-based fuels is already underway, even in the USA:

http://phe.rockefeller.edu/nytimes991031/


Further, the following article suggests that increased oil use is not always a pre-requisite for a growing economy (but when it's inexpensive, as it has been and still is - it's a no-brainer that it's going to be over-used):

http://qv3.com/policypete/Oil%20Prices%20and%20Econ%20Growth.htm


Finally, there's plenty of energy available:


http://www.rcub.bg.ac.yu/~todorom/tutorials/rad6.html

[Dogmudgeon]

13. Gasoline for private cars is hardly the problem

My family uses about $10 of gasoline a week. Our usage is fairly typical, except that maybe we're more frugal than most. If we had to pay $40 per week, it would not cut seriously into our budget, and we're on a tight budget.

The real problem with expensive fuel is that it increases prices in every sector of the economy that uses it. The economy, in general, needs a growth rate of 2.5-3% per year just to keep from falling into recession or depression; energy demand parallels this growth almost 1-to-1.

So a price jump in oil from the current $45/barrel to, say, $180/barrel would not be a lifestyle-changing Big Deal at the gas pump for most people. But it would usher in an economic crisis similar to those we saw in the 1970s from the oil embargoes and Mid-Eastern political changes.

Since the price of oil will soon start responding to geological factors instead of political ones, we will either find ways to de-couple our economies from oil use, or face a permanent economic decline.

--bkl

[Maeve]

14. A lot of the economy depends on trucks

We are going to rue the decline of our railroads, I think.

[snowFLAKE]

15. $180/barrel oil would trigger an Economic Boom in the USA

Or at least it would with intelligent Political Leadership.

I'm not sure if all my figures are correct (but I believe they're in The Ballpark), but the USA is now importing something like 10 million bbls/day. That's $500,000,000 a day straight out of the country - or close to $200,000,000,000 (200 billion a year). Somehow I just don't believe that if all that money was invested in alternate energy sources - and believe it or not there are still Smart People right here in the USA who'd be happy to develop these technologies - that oil would not quickly become irrelevant (or at least it would become restricted to cases where it's really really needed - maybe Jet Fuel or the Plastics Industry). Previously, I've seen studies that show that jobs in Alternate Energy that replace Fossil Fuel jobs are better paying to boot (I'll look them up, eventually - but since you don't pay much attention to my links - for example I provided information that energy demand and economic growth doesn't have to be coupled 1-to-1 - I won't bother right now).

In any event (and this may be an Environmental Nightmare) there's plenty of coal available for conversion to oil - like the Nazi's did - so given the current leadership of this country I suspect that such efforts will kick in long before $180/bbl crude oil is reached. Heck, the Canadians will even be building Nuclear Power plants to aid in the extraction of their Tar Oils long before that.

[Dogmudgeon]

16. That's a big hope

Intelligent political leadership? Dream on! :)

I don't make the point that the 1-to-1 energy-to-growth equation has to exist, just that it does exist. It was discovered retrospectively. I advocate that we decouple economic growth from energy consumption.

Coal actually would be an environmental nightmare; plus, it's also reached its point of decreasing returns. Shale oil and heavy crudes, such as those found in Canada, require more energy to extract than they produce. You'd need to use about 2 calories of heat to extract 1 calorie of shale oil. Engineering breakthroughs might drop that figure to where it's energy-effective, but there's nothing "in the pipeline" that I've seen. (Of course, I might have missed it.)

And where did you get the idea that I don't pay attention to links? I tend to read most, if not all, of the links I find in this forum. I agree, too, that investment in new energy sources can be highly profitable. What holds it back is the previous HUGE investment made in petrochemicals. And there's nothing like a bad investment to make businessmen spend more money!

--bkl

[Empathelle]

11. Maybe I'm a hypocrite but...

is anyone actually carpooling? Does anyone ever feel guilty because "they" actually are fighting for your cause? I'll tell you one thing, I could never be on "Survivor". Screw that, I need my mousse, my deodorant, my A/C. Ignorance is bliss, but I haven't had that luxury. What makes it even worse is that I'm aware of this but I do nothing about it. I wish I were born a Pygmie.

[Boomer]

12. Mea culpa, mea culpa

You have company, Empathelle. I'm not sure what good all my "awareness" serves since I'm still living the same basic lifestyle as so many "unaware" Americans, just with a lot more guilt.