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La Niña will likely continue into early 2008.

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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-08-07 11:26 AM
Original message
La Niña will likely continue into early 2008.
La Niña continued to strengthen during October 2007, as equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies became increasingly negative from 170oE to the South American coast
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The recent SST forecasts (dynamical and statistical models) for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a continuation of La Niña into early 2008 (Fig. 6). Over half of the models indicate at least a moderate La Niña through December, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends are consistent with the model forecasts.

Expected La Niña impacts during November – January include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in southern and eastern regions of the Pacific Northwest. Below-average precipitation is expected across the southern tier, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

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So it doesn't look like much hope for drought-breaking rain in the Southeast. And, it's starting to get dry in Texas after the abnormally heavy rain in June - August.

Remember that global warming and ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) are completely unrelated although the effects of ENSO may be enhanced by global warming.
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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-08-07 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
1. Isn't it Typically Cooler across U.S. in La Niña?
Edited on Thu Nov-08-07 11:38 AM by StClone
But I think there will be a deviation from that cooler (cloudier?) trend as the Polar region is no longer as efficient at "storing" cold into diminished snow cover, lessening ice pack and the ambient effect of warmer ocean water.
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-08-07 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I think it generally is cooler
I believe 2000 was a La Nina winter and I just remember that winter being extraordinarily colder. I don't have data to back that up, it just seemed that way. But I do think the general thinking is that a La Nina means cooler weather and hotter summers in the CONUS.
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