The End Of Cheap Food

[Delphinus]

By John James

04 August,2007
Countercurrents.org
http://www.countercurrents.org/james040807.htm

It looks like the era of cheap food is over. The price of maize has doubled in a year, and wheat futures are at their highest in a decade. The food price index in India has risen 11%, and in Mexico in January there were riots after the price of corn flour went up fourfold. The floods in England and India have devastated crops. In nearly every country food prices are going up, and they are probably not going to come down again.

Before World War II, most families spent a third or more of their income on food, as the poor majority in developing countries still do. But after the war a series of radical changes, from mechanisation to the green revolution, raised agricultural productivity hugely and caused a long, steep fall in the price of food, to a tenth of many people’s income.

It will probably return to a quarter of a family's income within a decade, or higher, from four factors:

{snip}
=======================
My memory isn't the best, but I don't recall any riots in Mexico over the price of food ... do you? At any rate, it certainly seems like a Perfect Storm on the horizon (but I've said that before in regard to other things).

[Robbien]

1. Is that sarcasm?

Perhaps not riots, but many marches and strikes and presidential campaigns.

This is a HUGE issue in Mexico and Central and South America. People are on the streets right now in Peru marching and striking for the third week running on this issue alone.

[villager]

2. It will also mean a shift in what is eaten: less red meat (the grain can be used

for people), less prepared/packaged food, and probably more backyard gardens....

[AndreaCG]

3. If you can't switch entirely to vegetarianism

At least cut the meat intake by half (that includes poultry and fish.) That will result in a much improved environment. I'm kind of perplexed/annoyed Gore didn't mention this more prominently in his film.

[unpossibles]

4. I agree although expect some flames for that

:)

[GliderGuider]

6. The top three on my list of things to do to save the world:

1. Don't have kids.
2. Don't eat meat
3. Don't eat fish.

I've done 1 and 3. I was thinking about giving up meat last night as I ate a steak...

[unpossibles]

8. I look at it this way

in my experience, giving it up eventually became easier thing to do, but any amount helps.

I would be far happier if people just cut down on excess whatever (driving, waste, meat, etc) then stress about giving everything up altogether.

[4dsc]

10. I am shocked at you

Given the oil imputs it takes to produce a pound of beef, I would have suspected you gave that up second, right after number 1!!

[GliderGuider]

11. But cows taste so damn good. All I can say in my own defense is

Since I woke up my meat consumption has dropped by 2/3. Of the remaining third I'm buying as much non-feedlot local meat as possible.

What can I say, I'm a reformed Atkins dieter...

[4dsc]

12. That's funny..

I too have decreased the amount of meat I eat considerably.. Perhaps once every two weeks or so.. That's quite a drop from my younger artery clogging days!!

[One_Life_To_Give]

5. Setting the stage for the Great Die-Off

Wasn't famine part of the reason the Black Death took such a high toll. Guess it's time for history to repeat itself.

[Javaman]

7. The question needs to be asked, why has it doubled?

ethanol.

We here in the US export 20% of our corn crop to mexico. however, that will probably changing very shortly as the run up in ethanol production here equals to about an ADDITIONAL 20%. funny how that works.

then there is Mexico's canetrall oil field. The largest one they have that produces 40% of the gov'ts revenue. it's currently crashing at a rate of 15% a year.

what to do, what to do...

first mexico tried floating the idea of ethanol themselves. this also raised the price of corn, thus inflating the price of tortillas. the people went apeshit.

the mexican gov't backed off. So then they said, lets try and open our oil industry to private investors. the people went apeshit again, because nationalized oil is written into the mexican constitution. whoops!

now as of 3 weeks ago, mexico raised taxes (god help the crooks in their gov't to skim off a little bit less to save the nation). as a result prices went up.

mexico is the nation to watch. they are the second largest exporter of our oil behind canada that isn't in opec.

you will see very soon, as the oil fields continue to collapse, not just mexico, but all around the world, nations will begin exporting less and less to keep it for themselves.

I predict some serious shit going down in mexico within the next 3 years.

[razzleberry]

9. has corn really doubled?

look at this chart

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/M

today's prices, 3.55

[Dogmudgeon]

13. Everything is up. A lot.

Corn is really up, but even rice is substantially higher, too.

The prices began to increase about a year ago, when all those ethanol initiatives kicked in. However, with such a short period of time to work with, I could be wrong about that. But it's a good place to go looking for smoking guns.

Thanks for the link, too. Most of the commodities charts I've seen were not very user-friendly. (I really should put more effort into learning how to get economic and market data.)

--p!

[razzleberry]

14. what 'kick-in' are you talkimg about?

the ethanol incentives, have been the
same since, ? Clinton, Bush1, Nixon, Lincoln ?

[Dogmudgeon]

15. I'm pretty sure there were MORE in the 2005 energy bill

--p!

[razzleberry]

16. not MORE, just continued

you might find thos page interesting
http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/history/timelines/ethanol.html

the fist subsidy was in 1978,
40 cents a gallon
.........................

what happened in 2005, was that the current 51 cent subsidy
is continued thru 2010.

there was also a provision for mandated use,
but this provision is meaningless because
current and projected use is way above the mandates.