Depression

[mastein]

Ok folks,

I try to be as reasonably optimistic as is possible, but I have seen a few factors that really make me think we are in a serious depression.

1) Interest rates are very very low, both the fixed (i.e. fed funds) and market determined rates are at historic lows.

2) There is almost zero demand out there. Consumer and business sentiment have been dropping like a stone, especially in the last year.

3) We had 400,000 workers lose unemployment benefits last month before they found work. They are no longer considered part of the "unemployment" number but are in reality looking for work. If you include those discouraged workers, unemployment is up over 6.5% if my figures are correct.

Please try to talk me out of this argument, PLEASE!!

[redqueen]

1. Wish I could

And the unemployment figure published in the news is only one measure (not including those who are underemployed or who have given up looking). The measure including all factors (U-6 on the chart linked) is 9.6%.

link

[mastein]

3. Thanks

for the "full" unemployment number. I am a contractor for DOL (OSHA) but didn't want to start slogging through the E&E book for the info.

[redqueen]

4. I have read about this indicator but couldn't find it

I finally called 'em up and asked. :) The woman I spoke with in their statistics dept was very friendly and helpful, and took the time to explain the difference in the numbers.

Coincidentally, papau has started a thread with the entire chart as the OP. It's amazing this information isn't more widely known. People should care about those who can only find part time work but really do want to work full time, as well as other groups that are left out of the published figure.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. You're wrong!!

THE ECONOMY IS IMPROVING!! THE ECONOMY IS GETTING BETTER!! STOP SLINGING YOUR HATEFUL RHETORIC YOU EVIL DEMOCRAT!!!

</sarcasm>

[pansypoo53219]

5. i have been saying it

greenspan has been able to make things look just good enough. if not for him, even though he is a complete shithead, we would be in a depression now. although the upper middle class were not hurt enough for them to get it.

[bemildred]

6. I sorta agree,

I think you can argue that we are in a depression now,
but it is being handled better than by the Hoover admin.
Having fiat currency actually helps, because TPTB can
manipulate the heck out of things to keep things "working".
How if comes out remains to be seen.

[kalian]

7. Just wait until the inflation figures are released....

AFTER they fix the software glitch... :eyes:
And as for fiat currency being "better"...I'd beg to differ. Just
because the smoke and mirror show is better coordinated does not
make the show any better...

[bemildred]

8. Yeah, the inflation twitch is indicative of howthings are being "managed".

"Better" than Hoover is a low hurdle. The bread lines
and soup kitchens are not that much in evidence yet. But
it is still early, IMHO.