3.8% growth reported in Oct. The last two trading sessions up.....

[MazeRat7]

after a painful Oct. Good numbers from the tech sector, confidence in the new fed chairman, and Q4 being historically strong....

What do you think... I am feeling like the markets are going to do well moving forward (in spite of the chimp)

Anyone else share my optimism for a good Q4 rally ?

MZr7

[papau]

1. Friday job creation will be below 120,000 - I don't see a big rally.

but a lot of people have made a very large amount of money by doing the opposite of what I suggested!

Good Luck.

[MazeRat7]

5. Not big... I agree...but not down either...(I hope)

I saw the employment estimates too and figure that will cause the street ninnies to panic.... However, I am sticking by my optimism that Q4 will be basically up... but not anything of record proportions.

MZr7

[papau]

10. I think we will close the year with a 12 month gain of 3 to 5% - so

I guess I am agreeing with you!

:toast:

:-)

But inflation will be the driver next year - and I have seen inflation kill the market - and occassionally be great for the market. Damn if I know how to play it.

:-(

[AX10]

2. There is a massive 'transfer' of money from the bottom to the top.

The only people making out in this economy are the wealthy. The common person needs to go into debt to pay off their bills.

[MazeRat7]

4. Step away from the keyboard.....

I ask for a specific read on the market(s) going into Q4, if the best you can do is to make some lame comment about wealth transfer... you might as well save us the bandwidth since your post was off topic and contributed nothing to the discussion.

MZr7

[AX10]

6. Why don't you go after elfin (below) then. They made a similar comment.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=114&topic_id=17959&mesg_id=17962

[MazeRat7]

8. I am not "going after" anyone....

I ask elfin to explain. I take that comment to mean that the current uptick is a result of debt and defense spending... and like I posted..I dont understand that analysis.

I am open to any specific comments... just that yours seemed to be a bit to "generic". Please dont take offense...I am trying to drive a more detailed discussion than... "the rich are getting richer"....

I want to know what other DU'ers think about the market specifics, how they are using that information to advance our cause, and ultimately how we are going to beat the repugs at their own game.

After all.. the markets are not "just" for the rich.... they are for all of us. *smile

MZr7

[elfin]

3. All due to debt, waning housing bubble

and defense spending/jobs.

This will NOT last - not built on sound foundation of sound fiscal policy with correct priorities to encourage middle class.

[MazeRat7]

7. Not sure I follow....

Tech, Energy, and Health Care are looking strong moving forward. Personally, I only deal with tech and alternative energy companies which seems somewhat removed from the housing and bond market ?

If I am missing something, please explain.

MZr7

[lastknowngood]

9. The Plunge Protection Team has kept the market at the same

place for over 5 years with no real gain or loss. If your into specific stocks and you have done your homework you may do well but the market is stuck because there is nothing else to bubble. The housing market is the only thing allowing the average Joe to keep his head above water and if it slows the PPT will be in for tough job. The 10 year bond and the short term bonds are paying almost the same and you know what happens when the converge, STAGFLATION. The market is working on almost and inverse reaction. When it should be up it's down and when it should be down it's up, that means the fundamentals have changed or heavy manipulation. This Xmas season will be crap due to the credit card bill changes just before the season and with the high heating cost of both Oil and Gas. With more money going to the shrub's biggest pals there will be less to spend on Xmas and the credit card bills will be a kick in the ass for those walmart shoppers. Good luck on your optimism but the market is now below where it was 5 years ago and no amount of optimism will change that.

[ArmHayseed]

11. Hope for the best but

Keep your eye on the exits.

The Fed has been consistent in raising rates lately. In the past they have seldom stopped before a recession resulted.

A short and shallow recession would greatly increase the likelihood of the tax cuts becoming permanent and maybe even the end of the inheritance tax. The benefits for some may great enough that they would hope for a recession rather than try to prevent one.

Over the last hundred years Republican presidents have had fourteen recessions, eight of them in the first year of their term. I have no idea if those numbers are meaningful or worthless but it’s just one more thing that keeps my finger on the SELL button.