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Since 2002, I Have Been Predicting A Major Economic Collapse in 2006

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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:03 PM
Original message
Since 2002, I Have Been Predicting A Major Economic Collapse in 2006
if Bush was elected in 2004. My stated reason for this was that Greenspan has been manipulating interest rate policy since 1999 in order to effectuate a Bush victory in 2000 and in 2004. Greenspan's actions have created the largest debt bubble in recent American history. A debt bubble that's unsustainable.

By this time next year, the cost of debt will be at least twice as high as it is right now, and this will destroy the debt driven consumer economy that we've seen these past four years. The coming debt crisis will lead to less consumption which in turns means higher unemployment which in turn leads to less consumption. A viscious cycle.

Starting with the last quarter of 2005 and into the first two quarters of 2006, the economy will have negative rates of growth, but we'll miss a full fledge depression by one quarter. The year 2006 will be the worst economic year since The Great Depression.

Now, am I wrong? Am I being a Cassandra? Am I so blinded by partisan hate that I'm not thinking straight? Someone please be honest and tell me if I'm dead wrong. Thank you.
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Tandalayo_Scheisskopf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
1. No, you are not.
These are economic and financial realities and possibilities that have not addressed. This maladministration has not managed or administrated. They, using the worst practices of laissez faire economics, have manipulated or deleted vital data and ignored realities.

This cannot sustain itself.

The economy has not had a broadbased recovery. In fact, the only real recovery has been in the stock indexes, and even that, of you back out and look at it over the long view, looks just like the flat osscilations of the depression.

Ass, gas or grass, no body rides for free. I expect that the first inklings of the truths before us will come in mid to late 05. Or when the S&P hits 1200. Whichever comes first.
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Neither The Dow Nor The Nasdaq Are At The Level They Were
at when Bush took over in 2001, and this with the lowest interest rates since the end of WWII.
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. The dollar is already falling. That seems like an early indicator.
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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
29. What do you mean?
Tandalayo_Scheisskopf
These are economic and financial realities and possibilities that have not addressed. This maladministration has not managed or administrated. They, using the worst practices of laissez faire economics, have manipulated or deleted vital data and ignored realities.

This cannot sustain itself.

The economy has not had a broadbased recovery. In fact, the only real recovery has been in the stock indexes, and even that, of you back out and look at it over the long view, looks just like the flat osscilations of the depression.

Ass, gas or grass, no body rides for free. I expect that the first inklings of the truths before us will come in mid to late 05. Or when the S&P hits 1200. Whichever comes first.
What do you mean? I thought this was the C.E.O. presidency. I thought the grown-ups were supposed to be back in charge! I thought W was supposed to have surrounded himself with very competent people.

If only I had known this I would have voted for the other guy. Oh wait, I did.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
4. no you are not off
In fact the first wave will be people like me selling gov'ment bonds... because I am going to it, and this is a first stage... think 1929, and the debt cannot and is not sustainable
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
5. I believe you are right on the money
we fool around a little studying world economic cycles, and it looks to us like we will be entering into a bottomless chasm somewhere between late 2005 and mid 2006. Our graphs show us about to fall off a steep cliff which looks to last 1000 years (we study pretty long cycles, he hee)
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:21 PM
Response to Original message
6. Have a question for my DUer financial gurus-
Edited on Tue Nov-09-04 06:22 PM by Old and In the Way
The only growth industry I'm seeing today are debt consolidation companies enticing people to roll up all their debt into a nice, easy to finance second mortgage. Are these rates variable, fixed, or can you choose?

I suspect that they are all variable and people are going to be in for the shock of their lives soon.
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jrthin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
7. I too despise **
But I think you're correct for the reasons you stated and also because the bonds come due in late 2005 into 2006. We've got to then pay the Chinese and the Saudis.
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Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:27 PM
Response to Original message
8. I've been seriously concerned for a while...
Most people are taking on so much debt to try & maintain lifestyle.

We just raised the debt ceiling again.

Where I live, housing prices have doubled on some properties.

Yes, I'm worried.

I sold my house 2 1/2 years ago, & now I'm renting...I don't know what to do.
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sadiesworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-13-04 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #8
35. I hope you're over 55 (the 2-yr. rollover rule)?!
My husband and I are planning to sell our house after Christmas and will be in the rent or buy position. Originally, I felt sure that we would ride out the bubble by renting, but I'm rethinking. I now believe a strong equity position in a small, fixer-upper is the right choice for us.

Of course, I just hope we can sell our current house for a decent sum (lots of REDUCED PRICE add-ons to the FOR SALE signs around here). You're in an enviable position, IMO.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 07:03 PM
Response to Original message
9. No,Bush's economic policies have been proven ineffective
Assuppply side economics have been prove ineffective. Vlinton proved that. They have to rewrite history about Reagan's supply side polcies in order to make the Reagan administration appear to have created and economic recovery, when the actual fact proove that the Reagan recovery had only a slight effect on a fewxsectors of the economy, and that hsi tax cuts had almost no effect on job creation or reinvestment in the economic infrastructure. an investigation of the Reagan tax cuts showed that less than five percent of the moneyt that went to the richest 2 percent in the Reagan tax cuts was used to create jobs. Most of this money was used to give massive raises to business executives (another aspect of the Reagan chabges to the tax codes, they removed restriction on executives from taking massive amounts of money and took of the caps for this remuneration in tax deductions) the rest went to giving dividends to shareholders.

No one seemsto remeber the downsizing of jobs that was the hallmark of the work place under Reagan.

Bush's economic policies have had similar imbalanaced effects on the market, and the Stock market has not reached the highpoints reached under Clinton, and have not even nmaintained their own highpoints under Bush. And Bush had Clinton's surpluses to beuufer the effects of his own tax cuts, the effects of 9/11 and other economic elements.

An attack of the level of September 11th would have a far more catastrophic effect on the current economy than iut did in 2001, as there is simply no buffer left to give Bush any wiggle room. Instead of creating a trillion dollar hole in the economy, an attaclk without a surplus to buffer it would have a n effect of not a trilion, but three or four trillion or even higher. Bush would have to dig an even deficit hole in order to recover from another attack, and since Bush will give notestiomates on what Iraq eill cost, an even deeper hole can be estimated. It is more than likely that the Bush deficits will exceeed the GNP before 2010.

Bush may evne have to do the unthinkable among neo-cons and raise taxes, but the rich need fear not. Tax simplificantion, as under Reagan, is kiddie cose for lowering taxes on the rich and raising them on the middle class. Under the Reagan Tax simplificantion act, 95 percent of deductions available to the midedle class were eliminated, while deductions for the rich wereincreased, and new deductions were created. Under reagans tax simplification, large corporations were allowed to start deducting obscene benefits, such as golf courses for the executives, multi million dollar condos for executives. Rewgan said that executives deserve all these benefits because of al the wealth they create. The roots of enron can be found in this Reagan Philosophy. You can expect that the Bush ideas of tax simplificantion wil be a convoluted set of rules that will actually expand the code, and increase taxes on the middle class, hitting most hard single workers. Every single person I knew when Ronnie pased his tax "CUTS" saw their income taxes increase. I am not talking about high wage singples, but people making less than 50 percent above the minimum wage at the time. People who were used to getting back several hundred dollars with their income tax return found them selves actually havingf to send Uncle Sam checks for as much as fifty percent of the amount of the tax refunds they had recieved the year before even though their salary increases were only 2 or three percent. For example, someone who got back 500 dollars on 19854 would end up having to send a check tio the IRS for about 250 dillars, meaning they paid an additional 750 dollars a year. This would be on a salary of 20,000 dollars a year in 1985. Which is about only about twice minimum wage. As usual the democrats warned about this, and the republicans attacked them as liars, but when the legislation passed, and people started looking at their income tax returns the Dmeocrats were correct. Over several years, very quietly, the income tax code was changed somewhat and the imbalance was lessened, but never to the previous rates. By the time George H.W. Bush ran for a second term. the economic disaster caused by conservative policies had set in. THe fact that Republican economics always cause a relatively stagnant economy for the middle class means that after a certain period of time, the fact that their economic policies result in the middle class doing less and less well eventually hits the middle class, though they wil never admiht that conservatism is the cause the conservative always gets voted out of office. Iit will take a while before the idiots get the point that theBush tax cuts had little to do with the recent improvements in the economy, and and more to do with the inability of people to get ahead. But since right nothe efffects are not so severe, conservative fools will follow their prejudices, rather than their wallets.

Since 1929, every period of economic growth for the middle classes has occured under democrats. The largest economic growth in the marlkets has occured under Democrats. In the 12 years of Reagan/Bush, the NYSE value grew by 49 percent. going from a little over 2000 to 3000. Under Clinton, the market grew from 3000 to over 11,000. Under Republicans the markets, if the grown at all do so in under 100 percent uincreases. Under Democrats, given similar numbers of years, the market usually increases in multiples of itself. The increases during the Reagan revolution are relatively pitiful when you consider they occuredover 12 years, This is roughlyt a 4 percent per year "interest" if you had invested during the Reagan/Bush years.
So if you invested 2000 dollars in an index fund when Reagan came to office you would have had 3000 when Bush I left office. If you had incested that three thousand when Clinton came into office, you would have had more than 10,000 when eight yers later, when Clinton left office, EVEN AFTER the bubble burst.

Similar differences can be seen in comparing every democratic administation to republican ones before or after.

Large Corporate executive like Republicans because their policies favor the CEO's personal income. Thre market itself favors Democrats because it always does much better under Dems.


You are more than likely spot on, only its going to take Bush tax simplification which will result in a complex method of increasing taxes on the middle class (Republican methods, take a little amount of money from a lot of people in order to raise taxes). By 2008 any demo will be able to ask are you better off now thatn you were in 2000 and hear a great many no answers. Like Reagan, Bush cut taxes in his first term, but then talks about Tax simplificantion during his second. Then they milk the middle clas, all the while providing mixed up math showing how the middle classes actually got a tax cu\t. But by 2008. enmough people will have KNOWN that they got a whole lot less back from the government or even had topay out much more and the facts will just not match up with the fantasy on paper.

Bush is planning a middle class tax increase, called tax simplification, will likely cut social secuirity benefits in a way similar to what happened this year, with the increases in the SOcial Security Cola being eaten up by increasex in cost of Medicare premiums
And this increase is bveing used to offset the fact that Bush lied about the cost of the Medicare Drug Program, and is raising the Medicare Premium to offset the fact that the program could not pay for itself without changeing someone else more in a program that had nothing to do with the prescription drug program

First terms of such conservatives are designed to prove that Democratic claims that they would cut programs were false, so that they can win a second term and do what Democrats said they would during the second term. Rewgan dis this, so will Bush
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mulethree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
10. longer term effect?
I don't know about debt cost doubling. Certainly Greenspan will double or triple his discount rate. But how does that relate to consumer debt? E.G. a credit card thats 9%+index might go from 11% to 14% a variable mortgage might go from 6% to 9%.

He'll do it to control inflation. But I've seen a lot more inflation than he has. Does he consider inflation due to the deflated dollar? Imported stuff is up 20-30%. Does he consider the inflation due to oil prices? So many imports come from China who have a bogus yuan/dollar exchange rate; if that changes we should see a large impact (inflationary) on overall prices.

How does his interest rates affect any of these inflations and how effective is increased consumption at increasing employment? e.g. Walmart can sell 25% more chinese imports while only creating 5% U.S. jobs (longshoremen and truck drivers). Home Depot can sell 25% more Canadian lumber and plywood without increasing their payroll 25% etc.

I think King George expected better results from the devalued dollar. It would be much more effective if he hadn't simultaneously crapped on the American image. Dollar goods should now be cheaper to the rest of the world, but anti-American sentiments squelch the tendency to buy cheaper American exports.

I'd love an inside view into the politics regarding China's exchange rate. They have huge economic leverage but buy our debt despite it's huge negative interest rates? Stimultate the demand that fuels their growth while reducing their own money supply to avoid hyper-growth?


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Robert Oak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 07:17 PM
Response to Original message
11. I bet 2006 earlier in the poll. you right, how about shelter?
Ok, we're all seeing this, but my problem has been always
seeing things coming up and then never taking action to protect
myself.

Anybody got some good ideas for self-preservation?

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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Here's What I'm Doing
2005 - My Debt Elimination Year

I plan on eliminating ALL of my debt in the coming year. Last Saturday, I paid off in full one of my credit cards, and I discontinued the card. I have two more to go and a student loan. Friday, I should hear about a job offer. If I get it, I'll be able to accomplish my goal by the end of the 2005.

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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. ditto, it's debt elim year...smart move.
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coloradodem2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
14. Shit.
I may need to get my ass out of grad school. God. Did I get screwed with no way out. Fuck you BUsh. You and your idiot followers ruined my life.
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Xenus Sister Donating Member (354 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:31 AM
Response to Original message
15. Self-preservation advice for people who live paycheck to paycheck?
That would be me.

I'm reading what you guys are writing, and I don't understand much of it, but it's well-written and I understand more than I did when I came into this thread. It sounds like it's going to get really really bad.

The question on self-preservation/how to prepare made me perk up. Are there any Caty bar the door web pages for financial morons like me? That's an off-topic question, sorry.

We're two steps ahead in that we don't have any debt (I use a debit credit card), and we live in a big city and don't own a car (by choice). Our only bills are monthly rent, utilites and food. We don't have a bank account because any extra cash goes onto the debit card.

My new meme: Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans Blame the Republicans

We must make sure that people understand who caused this.



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ramapo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:15 PM
Response to Original message
16. Economy, environment, energy...look our below
Three critical areas, all on unsustainable trajectories.

The economy is based on printing money and buying stuff made anyplace other than the US. Citizens and government alike are so far in debt that it is difficult to believe that we could become a nation of savers again. To make matters worse, much of the debt is held outside the US, ultimately providing leverage to foreign governments. Other countries may not be able to do anything against us militarily but economics is another matter. We seem intent on spending ourselves to death on military misadventure while neglecting our own needs. I liken our economy to a massive ponzi scheme.

The environment will cost us far more than most people imagine. The Bush admin is now crowing that they have a mandate to continue their irresponsible policies. Well we've been going down this road (the wrong one) for twenty or thirty years, what's another four? In order to seriously address our environmental problems, we'd have to change our lifestyles while inventing and deploying new technologies. The developing world would have to follow along. Instead it looks like the developing world has learned little from our problems and is intent on development that is inefficient (cars and roads) and filthy (check out China's problems with pollution).

Energy is certainly linked to the environment and economy. We use energy like there is no end to it. Supply and demand will eventually (maybe soon) take care of this bad habit. Is peak oil this year, in five years or in ten years? Has it already happened? Those of us around during the '70s remember the economic and cultural effects of the then contrived shortages. Too bad nothing was learned because we might've been able to avoid what will likely be a very unpleasant era. Our society, built on sprawl and never ending consumption, is more dependent on petroleum and natural gas than ever. This does not bode well for our immediate future.

The signs all point to a perfect storm, a shitstorm if you will, as the three "E"s converge. Most Americans are totally oblivious, more concerned about gay marriage, Laci Peterson, or Survivor(hmmm). Those that aren't oblivious are basically powerless to effect change.

Any one of us can decide to change their bad habits whether those habits include racking up too much debt, wasting energy, or polluting the backyard.

Changing society is another matter. America has proved to be a reactive society, we're not much for long term planning. Only events, or some amazingly honest leadership (don't think so), will change the mindset of society.

I've always had a bit of an apocalyptic outlook. Maybe that's from growing up with The Bomb. But I also had an optimistic belief that we would have the intelligence to recognize impending problems and address them before there was great harm. But I've been proved wrong. I think we were on the right track until the late '70s. Since then we've become more delusional with each passing year. You might notice the relationship to the rise in Reagan and the Republican Party.

I hate to be grim but I see an unpleasant reality approaching. I worry what I've gotten my kids into. We are in for some interesting times...
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. My 2cts on these subjects (plus the 2cts from two others)...
Edited on Thu Nov-11-04 08:19 PM by Petrodollar Warfare
Well, this thread is interesting and relevant to my research, so here's a sneak preview of my upcoming book, which includes a couple of paragraghs from the Forward, Introduction, and Epilogue. (my contribution is in found in the Intro)

(Exert from Forward)

The Lost American Century?

The 20th Century has often been called “The American Century.” To be sure, America has much to be proud of from the last century. Our efforts to stabilize and advance the world in two world wars have no equal. Our development of the majority of modern technology and infrastructure driving the world to increasing wealth realization has no equal. And, up until recently, our system of distributing the wealth provided by that infrastructure has been the most advanced model ever provided. We are about to throw it all away and render it incapable of providing solutions to problems that the world is about to encounter.

America and the world changed forever on September 11, 2001. It could have changed for America in ways that would have assured she remained in the ranks of the truly enlightened, liberated nations of western civilization. Instead, it seems, that promise will have largely been squandered with a vengeance.

The world changed again on March 19, 2003, the day America invaded Iraq. It is almost assured, unless quick action is taken, that the next century will become one of fear, oppression and economic decline for our nation. Our leaders, of both the Republican and Democratic parties, have continued a pattern of self-destructive behavior practiced with increasing disregard of our original purpose and promise as a nation.

Personally, I have spent much of the last two decades attempting to alert fellow citizens to the dangers entailed in events that I observed in my previous life that landed me in central and greater Asia during the late 19XXs. Those disconcerting events that I witnessed as a young man working for the NSA have begun to come full circle, and over the past three years have directly affected all of us here at home. Only now do current events, and for reasons largely explained by the book you now hold in your hands, start to make sense within context of those past events."

(much later in the Forward...)

"...All in all, the American people have let themselves be led down the golden path too far, too often by successive administrations. Some intended, some unintended. This combined with increasing levels of subtle misdirection and indoctrination allows many in our society to remain “fat, dumb and happy.” It also contributes to the ‘sheep’ syndrome we are experiencing, that is in fact exploited by our increasingly clever politicians.

Most Americans seem to live in a complacent paradise, thoughtlessly plugged into an uncritical mass media, ignorant of geography, of geopolitics and of the dangers brewing all around them. Many are easily kept that way by our eroding public education and the primacy of the constant struggle to raise a family and pay for the profligacy of government through the taxes levied at every level. This will prove to be highly injurious to the run of our civilization. We are allowing our leadership to make decisions affecting our grandchildren without true and open debate, without following our fundamental law and without informing us as to what is really known. Under these conditions it cannot reasonably be expected that America will remain a free and prosperous nation for much longer.

America needs your support in whatever form it can be brought to bear for we have likely entered the most dangerous decade of our history. The challenges analyzed in Petrodollar Warfare are not conservative/liberal or Republican/Democrat issues, but rather American issues. This text offers what different people think are better solutions to the problems we face, and what is in our long-term national security interest. It is anticipated that some American readers will disagree with the contents and recommendations discussed in this book.

Nonetheless, we hope it will not be said that anything contained in this text is anti-American. XXXXXXXX and the contributors to this book do not believe the current, past, or any U.S. administration that contributed to these problems was anti-American. They may be misguided and un-American in certain behaviors and policies, but they are certainly not anti-American. The great task in front of us is to face the challenges outlined in this book, and work together with the global community to create a more sustainable and peaceful world while ensuring the true defense of the United States. Otherwise, the 21st century will become America’s lost century.

Forward by XXXXX XXXXX.

General Partner, XXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX
Former Naval Security Group (NSG) Cryptologist and Technical Liaison to Naval Systems Engineering Activity and the National Security Agency (NSA), 19XX-19XX

(Exert from Introduction)

Introduction:

Hegemony \He*gem`o*ny\, noun \Greek hegemonia, fr. - preponderant influence or authority especially of one nation over others.

-Webster’s dictionary

“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be…. The People cannot be safe without information. When the press is free, and every man is able to read, all is safe."

Thomas Jefferson’s words embody the unfortunate state of affairs overshadowing the United States today. As a proud American whose family ancestry traces back to the American Revolutionary period, this was not an easy book to write. The author has little doubt Petrodollar Warfare will prove to be controversial..."

(much later...)

"...The author advocates reform of the global monetary system including a dollar/euro currency ‘trading band’ with reserve status parity, a dual-OPEC oil transaction standard, and a United Nations (U.N.) sponsored multilateral project regarding broad–based energy reforms. These reforms could potentially restore the damaged international stature of the United States. Additionally such reforms could serve as the much needed mechanism to reduce current global deflationary pressures by creating a monetary system that facilitates the creation of three engines for global growth, in an effort to increase in global aggregate demand. Most importantly, given the imminent peaking of global oil production, monetary and energy reforms are required if we are to avoid the devastating outcome of global warfare over oil currency and oil depletion.

An analysis of current U.S. geostrategic, monetary and energy polices suggests the 21st century will be much different from that of the 20th century - with one possible exception. The first half of the 20th century was filled with unprecedented levels of violence and warfare on a global scale (15 million killed in World War I, and 50 million killed in World War II). It is this author’s opinion the first two decades of the 21st century present challenges that could also result in the unleashing of another period of catastrophic human suffering and destruction.

In the post-nuclear age, this must not be allowed to transpire. In order to avoid such a terrible fate, more than any other nation, my fellow United States citizens will need to accept and undertake certain sacrifices to the betterment of humanity. In summary, to avoid profound tragedy in this new century, we must once again begin living within our means relative to both fiscal and energy policies.

The United States founding fathers declared the most fundamental and patriotic duty was to be an informed citizenry. As such, this book was written from the author’s sense of patriotic duty in an effort to inform readers in both the U.S. and abroad. The purpose is to stimulate much needed debate in our society, and hopefully in the international policy making arena as well. Only informed and motivated citizens compel changes within the decision-making apparatus of their governments. The author hopes that both U.S. citizens and the world community in general will begin an open dialogue regarding the complex issues discussed in this book.

This text concludes with numerous suggestions regarding multilateral policies for monetary and energy reform. These reforms are predicated on domestic reform of the U.S. campaign finance system and associated corporate sponsorship. While these proposals are controversial, they are presented in the hope the beginning of the 21st century may be crafted by the international community into a more economically stable, energy sustainable and less violent period than the opening decades of the previous century. Humanity and morality demand nothing less.

"Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government. Whenever things get so far wrong as to attract their notice, they may be relied on to set them to rights."

- Thomas Jefferson, author of The Declaration of Impendence, 1776

....and for the final words, a brief exert from Epilogue...

Epilogue

By Lieutenant Colonel XXXXX XXXXX (retired)

In a lifetime of taking chances, Saddam’s Hussein’s biggest gamble occurred in late September 2000, when he walked from a government meeting and announced he would henceforth sell his oil in euros, not dollars. His move was seen as political in nature; the euro had been down, struggling against the dollar and other currencies. Saddam would pay a financial price for this decision."

(much later...)

"...The United States is facing crisis – an energy crisis, a national fiscal crisis, a petrodollar crisis. A phase in our modern American history is ending, and something new will either be forced upon us, or chosen by us, or some combination of both.

Neoconservatives, accepting a zero-sum game and having a startling lack of real imagination, believe that we need only reject our classical liberal and republican traditions, and forcibly change others, to the extent of taking over foreign oil-rich countries while intimidating fellow oil-importing countries. America is a great nation, but the world is far bigger and far more resourceful than George W. Bush and the neoconservatives are able to appreciate.

The solid performance of the euro both before and since the invasion of Iraq, and the emergence of a competing petroeuro continues to evolve, seemingly unaffected by our adventure in Iraq and ironically, even encouraged by it. The economic marketplace seeks comparative value in currency, in businesses, in policies, and in countries. Thus the millions and millions of economic and financial transactions taken every day and night around the world persist and eventually prevail, while Washington neoconservatives nervously finger their beads and seek to implement a global command economy.

Thomas Jefferson clearly envisioned the disaster that would befall America if media were restrained, citizens uninformed and too trusting of government proclamations, and if the excessive political influence of big business and special interests metastasized in the corridors of political power and at the door of the U.S. treasury.

While Jefferson had some familiarity with the Jacobins in revolutionary France, it is doubtful he envisioned the neo-conservative persuasion and its inane and warlike approaches to solving critical problems of excessive debt, decades of a military “subsidy” artificially depressing domestic oil prices, and currency collapse. He might have addressed our current and coming crisis as a oil dependent nation in terms he knew and loved best – classical liberal values of free speech, free trade, and free action, constitutional restraint of centralized government power, strict limitations on executive power, trust in the creativity and productive power of Americans themselves, and possibly, the occasional usefulness of refreshing “the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrants” - tyrants he fully expected to be hiding out in a city called Washington.

*****

I hope you found this sneak preview stimulating....;-)

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ramapo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. When's the book out?
I thought that was you, GoreN4. I recognized the subject from previous posts.

Something new is certainly on its way and I don't think that there is any question that it will be forced upon us, if for no other reason than that our fellow citizens have failed the Founding Father's declaration that a citizen's foremost patriotic duty is to be informed. Hell we have a President who doesn't believe in being informed and he is widely admired for it.

I think that historians will look back at the past three decades as the era of lost opportunities. The great problems facing us today (my 3 Es) all have their roots in the 1970s.

Energy came to the forefront in 1973 with the first oil embargo with a second shock later in the decade. Jimmy Carter recognized the challenges and set in motion alternative energy and conservation programs. We all know what happened next. Carter was mocked for giving the American people stern lectures while wearing a sweater.

Environmental problems were recognized during the 1960s, particulary air and water pollution. Awareness and citizen involvement probably culminated in the early '70s with the introduction of Earth Day. Richard Nixon was probably the best friend the environmental movement ever had as he established the EPA and championed other environmental causes, not so much out of concern for the environment but as a recognition that it was good politics.

Neither alternative energy/conservation or the environment fit into Reagan's happy talk, morning-in-America campaign. He regarded such topics as contributing to the weakness of America and promptly consigned Carter's programs to the ash heap of history while beginning what would be a more than 25 year Republican assault on the environment. America drank the kool aid and went on a binge resulting in a growing, and possibly fatal, dependance on fossil fuel supplied by rest of the world.

Finally the coup d'grace, Reaganomics or as G.H.W Bush so succinctly put it "voodoo economics". That is likely the must honest phrase ever uttered by a Bush official. Americans were deluded to believe that it is possible to manufacture wealth out of thin air: cut taxes and increase spending while balancing the budget and making everybody rich. Since 2+2 still equals 4, it was necessary to start the printing presses going in order to make 2 + 2 = whatever you want it to be.

It has all worked beautifully. We've become the world's greatest debtor nation, dependent on all, committed to military misadventure, all while squandering the couple of decades that might've seen the United States lead the world to a sane and workable energy policy while protecting the only environment we have to live.

Half of us think we're on the right track, the other half think we've lost our minds. Logic and common sense tell me that much of America is in for a rude awakening.
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-12-04 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #18
31. The book comes out in May 2005 (perhaps April).
Edited on Fri Nov-12-04 09:29 AM by Petrodollar Warfare
Thanks for the response. I agree with everything you've written.

<<<I think that historians will look back at the past three decades as the era of lost opportunities. The great problems facing us today (my 3 Es) all have their roots in the 1970s.>>>>

Lost opportunities on a massive scale, nothing less than a collective failure of government, often based on flawed political ideology. It seems that only a few authors address what to me is quite obvious. It's as if somewhere in our brains we have sectioned-off the lessons of 1974-1974 and 1979. Perhaps that painful time period was hidden deep into our subconscious, and even today refuse to look at the graghs of Peak Oil Discovery (1964) versus the Peak of Oil Production (2003?-2008?).

<<<Neither alternative energy/conservation or the environment fit into Reagan's happy talk, morning-in-America campaign. He regarded such topics as contributing to the weakness of America and promptly consigned Carter's programs to the ash heap of history while beginning what would be a more than 25 year Republican assault on the environment. America drank the kool aid and went on a binge resulting in a growing, and possibly fatal, dependance on fossil fuel supplied by rest of the world.>>>

Ditto, and of course America's first ever unprovoked "preventative" invasion of Iraq is the unfolding outcome of these flawed policies.

<<<Finally the coup d'grace, Reaganomics or as G.H.W Bush so succinctly put it "voodoo economics". That is likely the must honest phrase ever uttered by a Bush official. Americans were deluded to believe that it is possible to manufacture wealth out of thin air: cut taxes and increase spending while balancing the budget and making everybody rich. Since 2+2 still equals 4, it was necessary to start the printing presses going in order to make 2 + 2 = whatever you want it to be.>>>>

Yes, unfortuanately these fatally flawed policies will only become clear after we've hit rock bottom, exemplified by a dollar crash, while the euro along with perhaps a single Asian "Yuan/yen" currency become the world's reserves currency, while the dollar becomes a 2nd tier currency. I suppose that I was hoping that under a Kerry administration even under severe economic dislocations, We the People might be able to preserve some semblance of our rights, liberty and freedom, as opposed to becoming an oppressive/militant society similar to Germany in the mid-late 1930s. Time will tell.

<<<Half of us think we're on the right track, the other half think we've lost our minds. Logic and common sense tell me that much of America is in for a rude awakening.>>>

Yes, I think Suskind's recent writing revealed something important about the psychology if the current administration and their predecessors. Their hubris and dismissal of reality is real. Some of use strive to live within the "reality-based community," while the "faith-based community"/"morning in America" crowd seems to enjoy mocking the realists and scientists with a combination of arrogance and willful ignorance. On the otherhand, I think some of the neocons like Cheney understand the power of fear and evoke the basest of all human instincts in order to degrade any objective analysis of facts.

Well, it may be naive, but the purpose of my book is to hopefully educate some of our wayword citizens to the fallacy of the neocon doctrine/military domination, and way two many years of GOP "voodoo economics."

I do wish my book could have been published this year as I had intended. Regardless, I will find my own peace once its out there for public consumption, for no other reason that others like yourself may gain something useful from it contents.
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redsdog Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. a
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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #26
28. ?
A bit laconic, aren't you?
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stevebreeze Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
27. The housing bubble is also a concern in some areas.
Rising interest rates will also burst that bubble.
Lots of reading on that at Center for economic and policy research.
http://www.cepr.net/pages/housing_bubble.htm
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Kablooie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-12-04 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
30. But this fits right in with Bush's master plan --
Why doesn't anyone see the truth?

The Republicans want small government. They don't think government should run programs like welfare, medical support, schools, etc.
So how do you get rid of all these services that people have grown to depend on?

ELIMINATE THE GOVERNMENT'S MONEY AND YOU ELIMINATE THE GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAMS.

Voila! Small government. How simple. How elegant.

And where did all those trillions of dollars go? Why it was used to buy things. Lots of things, and that's good for the economy and especially good for the large, even richer corporations! Wonderful!

If people complain, why any essential services can be easily obtained from large caring corporations, for a fee. What's wrong with that? It's the Amerikan way!

We can still extract the national sales tax from all the little people to pay for military, congress, and evangelist salaries but there won't be enough for all those nasty social services so we can rest at ease.

A perfect world for all -- except you -- but you don't really matter now, do you?
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ramapo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-12-04 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. They want a different Big Government
The Republican Big Government allocates hugh amounts to military/defense.

The Republican Big Government exerts social control, restricts personal freedoms and desires to mandate cultural behavior.

The Republican Big Government provides subsidies to corporations in place of assistance to the people.

We've had 20+ years of Republican executive and/or legislative control. They have shown no inclination towards a smaller, less intrusive government.

They're anti-government rhetoric is simply a paper tiger. Republicans have campaigned against the government while spouting their "patriotism". They ignore the most basic fact: the government is not a foreign entity, we are the government.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-12-04 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
33. I notice that my bonds keep doing well despite what goes on with the Dow..
What do you attribute this to?
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American Tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-13-04 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
34. Cassandra was always right. It's just that nobody believed her.
And unfortunately, nobody will believe you either, until it is too late. There are many in higher positions than you who have said the same, but to no avail thus far.

I don't know if your prescribed date is accurate, but I do know that we cannot continually sink into debt forever. If Bush pursues this path of trillions in spending with no increase in federal revenue, there will be hell to pay.

I will never understand how the same people who support long and costly wars also firmly reject the idea of paying taxes in order to fund them.
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Emillereid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 04:21 PM
Response to Original message
36. What do you suggest people do --
Should we sell our house and mutual funds and buy gold? Move to Canada? (that's realistic for us since my husband is a Canadian)
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ramapo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. That's the tough question
I wonder all the time how to best protect oneself.

The most radical and maybe best idea is to become a survivalist. Build a home with the capacity to live off the grid, in a climate that'll allow you to grow sufficient food, in an area not besieged by people, and with water and wood for fuel. You'd have to build up your self defense capabilities. You wouldn't want to have too many paper assets (cash, bonds, stocks). Hey maybe you could be on a TV show.

Few if any of us have the desire or even the ability to actually do what I've outlined above.

I think the best bet is to get out of debt, own your home free and clear, live in an area where you might survive without a car at your beck and call. It's ok to own some gold I suppose but I don't know where or how you'd spend it.

If the economy truly crashes and our stocks, bonds, and cash become somewhat worthless, there'll be such a shitstorm that I don;t think having a chunk of gold will really help. And speculating in metals is just that. Be careful.

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
38. Yes, you're wrong
The business cycle is on the upswing. The next downturn won't happen for another 4-6 years.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. Business Cycle & Stocks are on the upswing...
but so are the national debt and the price of gold.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. Try again....
Leading Indicators Drop for 5th Month

NEW YORK - The Index of Leading Economic Indicators a widely watched gauge of future economic activity, fell in October for the fifth straight month, suggesting that the economy may be slowing, a private research group reported Thursday.

(snip)

Ken Goldstein, an economist at the New York-based research group, called the latest decline in the index "a clear signal that the economy is losing steam." He also said that "worries about where the economy is headed may cause some strategic plans to be put on hold."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=530&e=1&u=/ap/20041118/ap_on_bi_ge/economy
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