Kerry coming on strongly in Iowa

[CMT]

The latests Iowa poll had good news for Three candidates and bad news for one. The three with good news are Dean, Kerry, and Edwards. Bad news? Dick Gephardt in a must win state for him.

Dean leads with 31% up from 22% in the previous poll conducted by Survey USA. Gep is in second with 26% down from 27%. Kerry is at 24% up from 15% and Edwards has 14% up from 11%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Now I'm a Dean supporter and delighted at this result--his leading and gaining nine-points from the other poll. But I was struck by the gains Kerry has made in this poll. He also gained nine-points going from 15% to 24%.

Two things, if Gep loses, no matter what he is out. If Kerry comes in second it gives his camapaign some bragging rights over expectations (Dean would also have bragging rights if he actually wins Iowa). Then a showdown between Dean and Kerry in New Hampshire.

Isn't politics fun to watch?

[tsipple]

1. Wow

Yet another fascinating poll.

Bear in mind that polls are terribly difficult in caucus states. It's all about organization. There's no question Dick Gephardt has a good organization in Iowa. Kerry's is competent but not quite as good.

On edit: I'd suggest making your subject line less judgmental. How about simply: "Latest Iowa Poll Results (11/21) from Survey USA"?

[Rose Siding]

2. Those numbers are from the second round of questions

In the first round, Dean is 10 over Gep. The totals can only be compared if the last Survey USA poll also had two rounds and the same four candidates were used.

All the candidates were available in the first question. The second eliminated all but the top four.

Here's the file:

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031121demcaucus.pdf

[tsipple]

3. Yeah, That's a Problem

Survey USA is trying to design their "second round" to simulate the dynamics of a caucus. And that's fraught with difficulty, hence my caution about caucus polling.

It's a laudable attempt, but there are serious problems with any methodology here.

[CMT]

5. ok

thanks for clearing that up. More impressive for Dean, but also Kerry still threatening second place from Gep.

[paulk]

4. I don't know about this poll

As a Kerry supporter, it should please me.

But it seems way out of line with other, previous polls. Every other poll I had seen showed Edwards dropping, in one poll all the way down to 6%. This poll has him at 14%. And then you've got a 17 pt. turnaround with Dean/Gephardt from the Des Moines Register poll of 3 weeks ago. And Kerry making a huge jump.

This poll only uses 418 participants - I'd rather see a bigger pool - and a lower MOE than 5%.

[cjbuchanan]

6. This poll is different from others

Daily Kos has a good take on this (http://www.dailykos.com/):

Note that SUSA was the first poll to show Gep with a solid lead over the Summer, following a string of Spring polls showing a surging Dean.

That's not saying this poll is accurate, but it's easy to bash SUSA polls for their methodology (automated phone calls). The last SUSA Iowa poll was a harbinger of Gep's Summer and Fall surge in Iowa. Whether this one is an outlier or simply ahead of the curve remains to be seen.

In any case, as far as this poll is concerned, bad news for Gephardt. Good news for Dean, and there may still be some life left in John Kerry. If nothing else, it's Kerry's first dose of decent news in a long time.

---

I have to agree with Kos on this one. There will be more polls in the next 2 weeks, so we will know if this means anything relatively soon.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Kerry is a safe haven for those who want a hawkish liberal

more so than any of the other Dems.

[cindyw]

8. I think there is a middle ground between hawkish and dovish

Don't Tread on Me is the closest I can come to that midlde ground. I think Kerry falls under that saying more than he falls in the extreme hawkish of dovish descriptions.

[blm]

10. They call him the "Tough Dove" in DC.

I prefer that.

[dfong63]

9. meanwhile, Kerry seems to be losing ground in his home state

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=237903">poll: dean tops kerry by 9 in bay state

[jeter]

11. Geez, Imagine if Gept comes in third in Iowa?

That would be something else.

Earth to Kerry: One way of stopping a Dean jugernaut after Iowa is to come in second. If Kerry finishes number two, then he has some bragging rights too and may lead to some momentum going into New Hampshire.

If Kerry comes in number two in Iowa and then wins New Hampshire. John Kerry will become the new "Comeback kid."

I say this as a hardcore Dean supporter.

[helleborient]

12. Big ifs right now, but you're right on the analysis (n/t)