2006 Governor's Races: Democrats Need to Take the Strongholds

[mndemocrat_29]

In 2006, many states that went overwhelmingly for Gore will be up for election. However, a lot of these states also have Republican governors and we as a party MUST win back these seats. The current standings for the gubernatorial seats are 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats. Now, while I think that Louisiana will make it 22 Democrats, we need to also prepare for 2006. It seems like a long way away, but so did the Presidential races three years ago and they are nearly upon us.

The upcoming two gubernatorial elections (2004 and 2005) will give Democrats opportunities, but we will mainly be playing defense. Several pickup opportunties (of which we should take full advantage) are Vermont (I know they have a history of loving incumbents, so we're going to have to defy history in 2004. Hopefully Rep. Sanders will run), Utah (it may sound unlikely, but keep in mind that we also have governorships in Wyoming and Oklahoma), and Montana (the best and most likely pickup, here's to Gov. Schweitzer in 2004!) In 2005, both New Jersey and Virginia have Democratic governors and we need to keep it that way.

Here is a list of 2006 Gore states that have Republican governors. We need to work to win them all:

California-OK, this seems a bit premature to worry about, since the governor-elect hasn't even been sworn in yet, but California is a must in 2006. The best possible scenario would be Sen. Feinstein running against Arnold (who by then will have lost all of his novelty factor, much like Ventura and will be seen as nothing more than a Right Wing Nut). However, several other candidates (possibly from the House delegation, like Rep. Jane Harman) could try for this race. Every other statewide office in California is held by a Democrat, and we need the governor's mansion to go with it.

Connecticut-How on earth this state has a Republican governor, I have no idea. In 2006, with Gov. Rowland most likely stepping down, this looks like our BEST pickup opportunity. Atty. Gen. Richard Blumenthal (or possibly Sen. Dodd) would be a sure-win candidate. Republicans only hope without Rowland would be for Reps. Shays or Johnson to step in. They'd most-likely lose to Blumenthal and we'd pick up their House seats quite easily.

Hawaii-The most liberal state in the union, Hawaii has a Repubican governor. Linda Lingle, though liberal, is a Bush ally and needs to be taken down. Possibly Rep. Ed Case or a state legislator will be able to take her down. The only reason Mazie Hirono lost was because of the unpopularity of Gov. Cayetano. If we nominate someone who isn't associated with the former governor, this seat should be ours. With Sen. Akaka probably retiring in 2006, voter turnout will be high while voting for his replacement.

Maryland-Mayor Martin O'Malley is the pre-ordained favorite in the primary race. Gov. Ehrlich is very conservative, far, far too conservative for Maryland, and he will be highly vulnerable in 2006. Given the leftward shifts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania in 2003, Maryland will likely follow suit in 2006 and oust Erhlich.

Massachusetts-Though it hasn't elected a Democrat since Dukakis, Massachusetts needs a Democratic governor. Mitt Romney's name is already being floated as a possible candidate for president in 2008, and by defeating him in 2006, we'll eliminate a possible future opponent. Rep. Marty Meehan would be a strong possibility for Democrats, and would probably win.

Minnesota-Though it didn't overwhelmingly go for Gore in 2000, Minnesota's election of Tim Pawlenty in 2002 was a fluke. Many Minnesotans complained about the Democratic party nominating too much old politics in recent gubernatorial elections (read Skip Humphrey and Roger Moe). We should look into nominating someone outspoken like Judi Dutcher or Mike Hatch. Hatch and Dutcher have ten times more appeal than Pawlenty, and would defeat the governor. From the looks of things, Hatch seems likely to take on Pawlenty come 2006 and Dutcher will probably wait around until 2008, to run for the Senate.

New York-Eliot Spitzer and Chuck Schumer will both be able to take this race. The only problem will be if Rudy Giuliani runs. Should Giuliani run, this race will be highly difficult, but not impossible. Keep in mind that Giuliani is a Republican, which doesn't resonate well in liberal New York. Had the Democrats been more organized in 2002, Pataki would've been far more vulnerable.

Rhode Island-Patrick Lynch, the Attorney General, should be able to take this. Rhode Island is a superbly liberal state, and we need to target both its governor's mansion and Sen. Chafee's Senate seat. With the shifting of Southern politics to the right, we need to assure that Democrats have as much of an advantage in their strongholds (the Great Lakes states, the West Coast, and New England) as they possibly can. Therefore, we must win the only two statewide posts in Rhode Island that we haven't already won.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. You forgot Colorado

and our asshole incumbent, Bill "Waah, I lost ALL my proposals that every voters turned down yesterday" Owens is extremely endangered. Not only he lost all of his proposals, he's not well-liked here thanks to the redistricting issue and his public separation from his wife, as well as his stupid "blank check" water diversion proposals. Our lone state Dem AG, Ken Salazar is seriously considering a run for Owen's position, and the state House and Senate is also poised to be a Dem majority once again after two (or four years) of Rethuglican majority.

Ken Salazar is extremely popular here, and he will win the governership for Colorado.

Now, we need to get rid of stupid Rethuglican supporting staff that are electable, and I'm thinking about a run, but not 100% certain yet.

Hawkeye-X

[mndemocrat_29]

3. I didn't list Colorado because Gore didn't win it

but you're right, Salazar will be able to pull this off in 2006 and Colorado is a definite possibility.

[nator311]

33. Owens having problems?

Good! That eliminates a possible 2008 presidential candidate for the republicans.

[SaveElmer]

2. Unfortunately Pawlenty was not a fluke

He is the third non-Democratic Governor in a row. Hasn't been a Democratic Governor since Rudy Perpich. I agree the DFL needs to put up someone exciting to have a chance. If they could convince Alan Page to run, they would definitely have a chance.

[mndemocrat_29]

4. Minnesota

First off, you're right that Page would be the best candidate and would surely win. However, I think he's holding out to see if he'll be tapped by the next Democratic administration to be a higher federal judge.

However, the DFL's problems in the past elections have been fairly easy to explain. In the 1994 election, John Marty wasn't the right man to pick off a popular governor like Arne Carlson. Additionally, 1994 was a terrible year for Democrats nationally. In 1998, we had a real opportunity, but squandered it by nominating Skip Humphrey. Humphrey, though I supported him, had already had his shot (in 1988, when he was clobbered by Sen. Durenberger), and another candidate would've been better. Possibly the late Sen. Wellstone or even Roger Moe, who wasn't as tainted at that point by a previous loss. In 2002, our biggest problem was that we ran a non-campaign. There was little to no ads for Moe, and we didn't differentiate ourselves from Tim Penny.

In 2006, things will be slightly different. First off, the Independence party will probably be able to attract little more than five percent of the vote. It will be part of history by then. However, if Democrats nominate another lackluster campaigner (such as another Humphrey or Ted Mondale), someone who's seen as old politics, then it will be much more difficult.

[SaveElmer]

6. Interesting about Page

But wouldn't a stint as Governor make him even more visible if what he wanted was a Fedderal Judgeship ?

[jiacinto]

11. Bad Candidates

That's a major problem.

[Awsi Dooger]

47. Right, and it's suicide not to isolate our best candidates

Democrats need an astute national leader(s) who takes a hands on approach to local and state races, identifying the superior candidates for a general election and forcing out anyone who does not qualify. That's the one area I greatly admire the current administration. You can't meakly stand aside anymore and let things play out naturally.

In '02 we let weaker gov candidates prevail in Hawaii, Mass and Rhode Island, and lost all 3 races. Look at how the Republicans have already forced out weak incumbents in Illinois senate and Montana gov for '04. No chance we would have done that. This year the Reps isolated and financed Arnold, Fletcher, Barbour and Jindal well ahead of time and will reap the benefits of superior handicapping. If Bush-preference Riordan had prevailed in the CA primary in '02, the recall likely would have never been necessary.

And if Gore had rightly prevailed in '00, is there any galactic chance the Republicans would allow 9 candidates scrambling for cash and airtime right now? No bleeping way, they would have influenced and intimidated at least half a dozen out of the race, just like Simon and Ueberroth in the CA recall. I understand Bush would have been the natural rematch foe in that case and others would have stayed away as a result, but even in a completely open field the current Republican philosophy of identifying the best candidate would have already taken charge.

[mndemocrat_29]

49. I have to agree about clearing the field in certain races

Especially Louisiana. Democrats had a very good night in the Louisiana primary. If Ieyoub and the other Democrats hadn't been in the race, Blanco probably would've pulled off the election in October, and we would've had positive press coverage for a month about how Democrats had picked up a seat in the South, was this is a sign. I bet it would've mattered in Mississippi, and possibly in Kentucky.

Additionally, in Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, we should've run stronger campaigns attacking our opponents. Shannon O'Brien took a strong lead and let it evaporate. Myrth York, after two prior electoral losses should've A. Not been nominated in the first place or B. Realized that voters DESPERATELY wanted a change and run on that.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

5. Oregon is a tight race

Kulongoski just won by approx. 40,000 votes.
He has a tough road ahead.

The Libertarian Party and the Green Party will erode more vote next time around from both Democratic and Republican parties.

Cox got a solid 5%. A lot of you will laugh at that but that could be the downfall of Kulongoski.
Since last year the Oregon Senate was split 15-15 and the House was 35-25 for the Republicans. It was not a good 2002 session. All the House seats has the re-election in 04. And of the 15 Senate races: Republican: 10
Democratic: 5

So it will be very hard to see how Oregon will fair next year or '06.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

7. Don't you have 4 Dem congressmen and 1 Repug???

Shouldn't there be some advantage for the Democrats here! Ron Wyden is going to win next year no doubt!

[a_lil_wall_fly]

9. Yes

David Wu D-1st: Wu has 3 republicans filed against him and 2 of them will give him a solid run to the finish line.
Greg Walden R-2nd: I hope DPO gets some solid oppenents against him
Earl Blumenauer D-3rd: The republican party has yet announce who is in the race for sure. The names that have float have not caught my eye at all.
Peter DeFazio D-4th: The republican party has yet announce who is in the race for sure. The names that have float have not caught my eye at all.
Darlene Hooley D-5th: This race is going to be interesting--the Republician Party is throwing Brain Boquist at her; he was the sacrifical lamb against Ron Wyden in 2000. I think Jackie Winters (state senator) will be a tougher foe.

As for Wyden--he should win with no problems but Mannix(loser to Kulonguski in the Governors race and the head of GOP for the state) has a sent solid opponent.

[mndemocrat_29]

30. Who has Mannix sent?

The only person listed on www.politics1.com is Pavel Goberman.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

31. Mr Goberman is the 1st one...

there has been talk about getting one or two more against Senator Wyden.
I think Mannix wants a wide spread of Republican idealogies against Wyden and Wu too mix things up.

[mndemocrat_29]

35. A mix of Republican idealogies will likely yield an archconservative

Which will help the Democrats in liberal Oregon.

Additionally, Gordon Smith has basically said he won't help Republicans against Ron Wyden.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

39. True

That is why Mannix is not that happy with Smith

[seasat]

8. Don't forget us in FL, Gore really won this State.

Jebbie will fortunately be term limited and there are already indications that we will have a great crowd of Dems to run. Jim Davis, US rep from Tampa, has indicated that he will run. I wish he had run in '02 but he was fighting to keep his district from going Republican due to the gerrymandering.

[jiacinto]

10. Too early to tell

California--Way too early to tell how this election turns. Arnold is coming into a very bad situation. How he improves or worses the problems will determine who takes over in 2006. How Boxer fares next year will determine it.

AG Bill Lockeyer could be a good candidate, but then again he voted for Arnold. And I find that unforgiveable. Then again, if Arnold falters badly, and he runs, he could say "I gave him a chance" and then make that as his campaign.

Phil Angelides and Kevin Shelly could run. Steve Westley, the Controller, won by only 16K votes. He needs to hold onto his office.

I don't know who else could run for this and win. Feinstein will probably run for re-election.

Too early to tell here.

Connecticut--This will depend on who runs. Democrats have been unable to win this office mainly because of bruising primaries and poor candidates.

Hawaii--It depends on who the Democrats run and how Lingle governs. I don't know anything about HI politics.

Maryland--I am former Marylander. I lived there my entire life and so I can give you some input.

The Democrats could win this race if Ehrlich counties to fare as poorly as he has the last few days. His win over KKT was mainly due to the ineptitude of her campaign and the negative ratings of the Glendening administration.

I think Mayor O'Malley will be a great candidate. However, Doug Duncan of Montgomery County seems prepared to run against too. So too might Anne Arundel County Executive Janet Owens. A brutal primary would hurt the party.

Whoever wins is going to need to swing the suburbs of Balitmore. Ehrlich won by 60,000 votes in Baltimore County, 50,000 in Anne Arundel. The Democratic candidate needs to pick up at 35,000 votes in the suburbs. Also the Democrats need to narrow the crushing 3-1 and more margins that Ehlrich won in exurbs of Carroll, Fredrick, and Harforc counties.

Massachusetts--Brutal primaries and bad Democratic candidates have given the GOP the edge it has there. If they can unite against a good candidate then we have a shot.

Minnesotta--Pawlenty's victory was due to the Wellstone service and the freak accident that led to Wellstone's death. As long as the Democrats can put out a good candidate, keep a Green out of the race, and stay united it, it will be competetive.

New York--A Spitzer-Giulani battle will go down to the wire. A brutal Dem primary ensures a Republican victory.

Rhode Island--York cost us this seat. She has run three times and come up short. Had she not been on the ballot Carcierri wouldn't have won.

Chaffee will win re-election comfortably.

[mndemocrat_29]

12. On Rhode Island

I totally agree that if we hadn't nominated York, we would've won.

However, I don't feel that Chaffee will win by a great margin. Democrats are going to NEED his seat in 2006. I expect that either Patrick Lynch or Patrick Kennedy will run, and they should be able to make this competitive.

[jiacinto]

13. True

But I see Chafee having the edge. But when that seat opens then we will take it.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. I read last month that....

Chaffee has very low approval ratings, only 40% or so as compared to Jack Reed's 64%.

[mndemocrat_29]

15. Really?

Do you have a link?

I suppose his support of Bush (though he steers left on occasion, he does back ALL of Bush's judicial nominees) lead him to low approval ratings.

[NewJerseyDem]

32. He had high approval rating in 2002

I know this was a while ago but it was the best that I could find. He had 59% giving him either an excellent or good rating.

http://www.insidepolitics.org/polls/rel1002.html

How would you rate the job Lincoln Chafee is doing as U.S. Senator? 13% Excellent, 46% good, 21% only fair, 10% poor, 10% don't know or no answer

[nator311]

34. California

Don't forget to include John Garamendi, the state Insurance Commissioner. He could make a formidable gubernatorial candidate. Let's just hope that Bustamante doesn't become the only candidate for this seat.

[mndemocrat_29]

36. Garamendi would be a good candidate

We'll need to win this one back in 2006.

[democratreformed]

16. In Arkansas

it looks like we will have a Rockefeller running on the Repub side. We're not sure about the Dem yet, but I can tell you that I will be working my tail for whoever the Dem candidate may be.

[mndemocrat_29]

17. Probably one of the State Constitutional Officers will run

I believe they're all Democrats.

[jiacinto]

18. Who would it be?

nt

[mndemocrat_29]

19. Possibly the Attorney General?

n/t

[democratreformed]

22. Yes

I have heard that it will likely be Attorney General Mike Beebe.

[jiacinto]

24. Is he popular?

nt

[democratreformed]

26. I fear

that he is a bit inexperienced. This is his first major elected office and he has only been on the job for a couple of years. But, a long-time Senator (Dale Bumpers - who served many terms) highly recommeded him at a Democratic dinner Saturday night.

I don't care how far away the election is. I am already thinking about the upcoming governor's race. We have to work on this mess one small piece at a time.

Last election, we had a woman run again the incumbent. I just don't think our state was ready for a woman yet even though she did okay. Hopefully, next time, with enough hard work on our part, we can take back Arkansas!

[jiacinto]

27. Well

AR has Blanche Lambert Lincoln as one of its Senators.

[democratreformed]

29. She

was the woman who ran in the last election.

[GOPBasher]

20. That's something to look forward too

I'm glad we'll be fighting on our turf then.

[Alex146]

21. IMO you're jumping the gun on this

2006 is way to far ahead. I'll stick too 2004.

Alex

[ringmastery]

23. Florida

What's that race going to shape up as?

I think Gallagher will run. Bush wants Martinez to run. He'll be tough.

I don't know of any dem candidates. I wish the attorney general Bob Butterworth ran for governor in '02. He would have been a great candidate against Brother Shrub, but he ran for a state senate seat in a heavily repub district and lost! Why, he did that, is beyond me. But he's probably damaged goods in '06.

[jiacinto]

25. Where is Butterworth from?

nt

[ringmastery]

37. Broward County

Short Bio:

ATTORNEY GENERAL BOB BUTTERWORTHRobert A. "Bob" Butterworth was elected Florida's 33rd attorney general in 1986,following nearly two decades of service as a prosecutor, judge, sheriff and mayor. He was re-elected attorney general in 1990, 1994 and 1998.He was born August 20, 1942, in Passaic, New Jersey, the son of Mr. and Mrs. Robert A.Butterworth, Sr. As a young child, he and his family moved to Broward County, where heattended school.Butterworth earned a degree in business administration with a major in accounting in1965 from the University of Florida. In 1969, he received a juris doctorate from the Universityof Miami Law School followed by advanced studies in international law. He served as anadjunct professor for Nova University's Graduate School of Criminal Law from June 1976 untilDecember 1978.After his admittance to The Florida Bar, he was an assistant state attorney in DadeCounty. As an attorney for the Broward County Sheriffs Office in 1972-73, Butterworth wasone of the nation's first police legal advisors to work directly with officers on the street. Thispilot project was later expanded nationally by the federal government.During 1973-74, Butterworth was part of a team of prosecutors in Broward County thatgained widespread recognition for its successful crack-down on local political corruption and thesouth Florida underworld.From 1974 to 1978, he served first as a Broward County judge until Governor ReubinAskew appointed him circuit court judge. He was subsequently elected without opposition.On December 21, 1978, Governor Askew appointed him sheriff of Broward County.Broward citizens subsequently elected Butterworth to that office by one of the widest margins incounty history. While sheriff, he gained international attention for sending his deputies into theCaribbean in pursuit of drug runners.In 1982, Governor Bob Graham and the Cabinet appointed Butterworth director of theDepartment of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, which includes the Florida Highway Patrol.Butterworth pioneered FHP's highly successful drug interdiction program, developed one of thenation's first formal driver license fraud detection programs and formed an elite team of "supertroopers" to uncover drug runners.Governor Graham again turned to Butterworth in 1984 and appointed him mayor ofSunrise. He then returned to the private practice of law until his election as attorney general.Butterworth and his wife, Marta Prado, a health care executive, have two children: a son,Brandon, and daughter, BreAnne.

[jiacinto]

38. Ok

Thanks. So where was the seat he ran for?

[ringmastery]

40. Broward/Palm Beach County

It was a republican district.

[jiacinto]

41. Aren't those heavily Democratic counties

Why did he lose in such a heavily Democratic area?

[ringmastery]

42. gerrymandering

There are always republican pockets in democratic counties. Foley and Shaw have districts in Broward/Palm Beach and they are republicans in the U.S. House.

[jiacinto]

43. Well

Foley's district is more than just Broward and Palm Beach.



It includes Republican leaning counties like Charlotte.



Shaw's is very competetive and evenly split between the parties.

[ringmastery]

44. Shaw's district was gerrymandered in

2002 to help him. Dade County was removed and republican areas of Palm Beach were added. He had a tough race in 2000 against Elaine Bloom. IIRC, she only lost by a few hundred votes.

[mndemocrat_29]

45. However, when Shaw leaves his seat, this will probably go to us

n/t

[NewJerseyDem]

46. Hopefully, he leaves soon

The problem is that he may become Ways and Means Committee chairman in 2007, or even earlier if Bill Thomas gets in more trouble, so he may stay around for a long time. He isn't that old so I don't think he will leave for a while.

[jerryster]

28. Wishful thinking on DU again?

Look, I want The Dems or independents to get those governorships back. But just because we all want it to happen is no reason tp pronounce all those states as ones we "probably would win". The fact is we can't be so sure. And with the results in Mississippi and wherever the other state was on Tuesday it looks like the Repugnicants are off to a good start. I know you're looking at states we need in 2004. My point is we all need to be realistic here. For example you say Guiliani's being a Republican doesn't resonate in liberal New York. Then how the hell was he ever mayor? And while it was overwrought, the hero thing from 9/11 could probably still work for him. Same thing re: Massachusetts. You simply declare that the candidates you name would probably win. Romney could have been beaten this time, but he wasn't. All I'm saying is that wishful thinking doesn't get it done. When the day comes all of us - and I mean everyone who wants the Repugnicants gone, not just DUers - have to get to the polls and vote in the most overwheming numbers in years. Otherwise it's 4 more years of the Cheney ventriloquist show and a lot of state governorships in their slimy hands as well.

[peaceandjustice]

48. Bill Weld for NY Governor?

I read a couple years ago that Bill Weld had moved to NY and was interested in running for governor when he'd become eligible to do so, in 2006. COuld he keep Guiliani out of the race, or force Guiliani to spend funds on a primary? Or would he step aside or run against Hilary?

[mndemocrat_29]

50. Weld v. Giuliani would be an interesting race

There both fairly moderate, but Weld could draw some support from national Republicans who don't want Giuliani to have that stepping stone to the White House. I don't think that Weld would run for the Senate against Hilary (he's already suffered a bloody Senate defeat in 1996 against John Kerry) and unless there was serious support for him, Weld probably wouldn't win the primary for New York governor, but stranger things have happened.