New Jersey Election Analysis

[mndemocrat_29]

New Jersey, who has a dead even split Senate and a close House, will hold elections next Tuesday.

Here's some of the closest races:

New Jersey 12-A very high profile election. President of the Senate John O. Bennett is facing off with Ellen Karcher. The district is slightly more Democratic, but it's fairly close. A recent poll pegs Karcher as leading Bennett. Just one race will tilt the balance in New Jersey, and this could be it.

New Jersey 4-George Geist and Fred Madden are in a deadlock race for this seat. The seat has set records for campaign spending and will be close.

Here's a news article:

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/njpolitics/101703ELECT_O16.html

Any New Jersey Democrats out there with any more info?

[NewJerseyDem]

1. Election looks pretty good

My state senate analysis.

District 12- Republican senate co-president looks like he is in big trouble. He has been under fire for potential ethics problems after a series of reports by the Asbury Park Press. Ellen Karcher is a strong candidate and polls suggest she will win but it could be close.

District 4- Republican George Geist was appointed to seat after Sen. Mathesseun was appointed to head some commission by McGreevey. Geist has won in the assembly races a lot so he is the favorite and he is leading Fred Madden but Matheussen and other republicans refuse to endorse Geist and some have endorsed Madden so that could be helpful for the democrats

District 14- Republican Peter Inverso appeared vulnerable in this democratic leaning district but it appears that he will hold the seat comfortably.

District 36- Democrat Paul Sarlo is running here against the fairly old John Kelly. This race is quite close even though most think that Sarlo will probably win.

District 38- Democratic senator Joe Coniglio is the most vulnerable democratic state senator because he is facing longtime republican assemblywoman Rose Heck. This race seems like a tossup and could be close. All incumbent senators in this seat at some point have been defeated for reelection for something like 20 years.

District 25- Republican Senator Bucco is surprisingly vulnerably this year. Blair MacInnis is running a strong campaign and has gotten some newspaper endorsements including the Star-Ledger. This could be the surprise upset of a republican incument in a republican Morris County.

District 22- Democratic senator Joe Suliga dropped out of his reelection campaign after he was arrested and enter rehab for alcoholism. He was replaced on the ballot by Nick Scutari who like Suliga is a product of the corrupt democratic machine of Linden. He is running against the republican mayor of Scotch Plains Martin Marks who is the leader of the popular campaign to have a constitutional convention on property taxes. I think that Marks may have a shot in this usually democratic district.

http://politicsnj.com/prall2003_1008.htm

This is a good chart for seeing how the races are playing out.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. Thanks NewJerseyDem!

If we make more gains in New Jersey's legislature, that will be four straight victories in as many years (Corzine and Gore's wins in 2000, McGreevey in 2001, Lautenberg in 2002).

[mndemocrat_29]

3. Do you know anything about the Green in the 14th District?

Does he/she caucus with the Democrats?

[NewJerseyDem]

6. Matt Ahearn

He is actually from the 38th district and is a former democrat. He was first elected in 2001, but early this year he discovered that the democratic party organization was going to try to oust him in the primary. He had had some disputes with the democrats over the environment so he joined the Green Party. I'm pretty sure that he doesn't caucus with the democrats. I believe he opposed the democrats in the budget fight but I'm not 100% sure. He will probably lose and may very well take away enough votes from the two democrats in that district to allow the republicans to win in this swing district.

He isn't the only assemblyman to switch parties because the party organization has opposed him. Assemblywoman Arline Friscia was defeated in the democratic party primary when the party organization backed another person, a man (This state isn't the best for female politicians). She then switched to the republican party and is running as a republican and could win in this pretty solid democratic district. She is probably the most liberal republican ever.

Also, Rafuel Fraguela became a republican after the party turned against him but it is viewed that he has virtually no chance to hold his seat.

There were more internal problems in the two state senate races where the party organization was actually defeated in primary. The party has to stop trying to defeat its own incumbents. We went from 54 democratic assemblymen in 2002 to only 51 now.

[goobergunch]

8. A Dist. 4 note

I don't know much about the candidates, but I would note that they've both been waging an incredibly nasty ad campaign on Philly TV.

[NewJerseyDem]

9. A lot of the campaigns are nasty

I don't think that New Jersey politicians have ever heard of the idea that negative campaigning doesn't alway work. I don't think I really like either of those two candidates but I don't know much about them. It seems like Geist may be pulling ahead but the democrats are targeting this district as being the second most likely pickup.

Here's is an example of the battle on politicsnj.com

http://www.politicsnj.com/
http://www.politicsnj.com/default2.htm (The attack on former senator Mathesseun probalby isn't the best idea; he is pretty popular.)

[CMT]

4. I think with Gov. McGreevey's low approval ratings

Democrats will probably lose a few seats in the house and senate in NJ.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. I seriously doubt that McGreevey will effect this too much

Considering how liberal New Jersey has become, the Senate will most definitely go Democratic. We should be able to pick up the 12th District and the 4th District.

[NewJerseyDem]

7. You would think

The polls indicate that the democrats are in a strong position. Polling shows us picking up the 12th district's senate seat. And there are no democrats that look like they are in horrible shape. McGreevey is disliked for personal reasons, not policy reasons in my opinion. So, I don't know if it affects democrats even though it may have hurt us in the 4th and 12th where it seems increasingly unlikely that we can win. The assembly seems hard to predict because we have a larger majority. The current number is deceiving because 3 democrats left the party and at least one of those seats we will certainly win back in the election.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

10. Agreed!

They see McGreevy as being somewhat deceitful on the personal level but they do aproove of his moderate policies!

[Kool Kitty]

11. The Bennett-Karcher race has taken some ugly

personal turns, but I believe that Ellen will win it in the end. I think we'll be all right.

[NewJerseyDem]

12. That's our best chance

That race has been very negative but Ellen Karcher seems to be the favorite even though that is a fairly republican district. We also have a shot at those two assembly seats in that district.

[mndemocrat_29]

13. Karcher seems like the most likely candidate to beat an incumbent

n/t