Kerry within 6 points of Dean in N.H. poll

[quinnox]

Hot off the wires:

Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean leads rival John Kerry in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

Dean, the former Vermont governor, leads Kerry by 6 percentage points in the survey by Suffolk University for WDHD-TV, a slightly smaller margin from a September poll. Dean was favored by 25 percent while Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, was backed by 19 percent. Dean led 26 percent to 17 percent last month.

In this poll, Kerry's favorable rating increased from 58 percent in late September to 66 percent in mid-October. Almost that many, 60 percent, viewed Dean favorably.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=694&e=1&u=/ap/20031020/ap_on_el_pr/new_hampshire_poll

I am pleased about this poll, Kerry seems to be gaining ground.

[jeter]

1. It's still within the margin

Statistically indifferent

[DrFunkenstein]

2. It's Called "Momentum"

Or as they say in The Matrix, "That's the sound of inevitability."

<>

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. The closer we get to actual votes being cast, the closer

people will be paying attention. That's when real ideas, real vision, and real leadership will matter more than soundbites and spin.

[Renew Deal]

4. You nailed it.

[blm]

5. Like the sign said...Dated Dean, Married Kerry.

All fun aside, I expected this when the NH Firefighters hit the street. Bradley was leading in NH and then Gore and the firefighters hit the streets, picked up their pace and ruled the day.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Yep. Dean Defense Forces brag about the internet

while Kerry's doghunters are rounding up votes up and down New Hampshire.

[displacedtexan]

11. that's hilarious!

it reminds me of anderson, perot, and mccain days. when people took notice, the state parties circled the wagons. i expect this will happen this year, too.

[blm]

63. good point.

I also wonder if Clark and Lieberman pulling back in Iowa is part of that circling of the wagons.

[gully]

Yes, and the fact that Kerry stole the meetup idea from the Dean campaign

really seems to be helping Kerry in the polls! WOO HOO!!!

:thumbsup:

http://www.johnkerry.com/meetup/

[blm]

15. meetup was started for all the candidates

and the first prominent meetups were for Gore. Dean needed meetups. Gep and Kerry had the unions and environmental and civil rights groups they worked with for decades who would act as footsoldiers.

[dsc]

17. and of course us gays don't count for crap

and yes we have been for Dean and working our asses off.

[blm]

20. Gays aren't part of the civil rights groups I mentioned?

Gays don't support Kerry?

What are you trying to infer, here, dsc?

Did Kerry EVER ignore gay rights at ANY point as a lawmaker? I could have sworn he was one of the earliest small group of legislators who advanced gay issues.

[dsc]

21. Gays overwhelmingly support Dean

and most importantly we have been his foot soldiers. In a 9 candidate race Dean has the support of at least one of two gays. That is quite impressive. That speaks more of Dean than Kerry I think but it still is accurate.

[cindyw]

23. Can you prove this?

How do you know this to be true?

[dsc]

25. Here is one poll in which he out polled Kerry three to one

http://www.commondreams.org/news2003/0804-03.htm

Thirty-two percent of those planning to vote in the Democratic Primary said they would support former Vermont Governor Dean. This was nearly three times the percentage backing the next most popular candidate, Senator John Kerry, who had the support of 10% of respondents. Senator Joseph Lieberman was third with 7% support. The rest of the field came in as follows: Congressman Richard Gephardt 6%, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun 5%, Sen. John Edwards 4%; Rev. Al Sharpton 3%, Congressman Dennis Kucinich 2%; and Sen. Bob Graham 1%. Twenty-eight percent of those planning to vote in the Democratic Primary were undecided on a candidate.

end of quote

This admittedly is a bit old (June 03) but shows a very high level of support.

[cindyw]

41. I'm not trying to be a math freak here, but

you said 1 of 2 gays. That is 50% and that poll says 30%. You meant one in three right? I also think given that this was June, you have to consider that in the summer Dean was riding high on people's finding out about his signing of the civil unions bill. I don't blame gays for supporting a man of those credentials. But that doesn't mean the other candidates would not do the same nationally. The one thing that is certain is that Bush will not.

[dsc]

44. You are correct that I over stated my case

but this would have been before Dean caught fire. Gay Pride is in mid June or at the lastest the early 20's in virtually all places. These polls would have been taken before Dean announced, before his 2nd quarter totals came in, and before the MTP interview. In short, while Dean was still in the low to mid single digits nationally.

[cindyw]

49. I'd be in interested in seeing a more recent poll

I'd also like to think that most gays are pragmatic in fighting for civil rights. I think that they will help elect any candidate over Bush in the general, as long as he or she is not anti-gay rights. Am I right?

[dsc]

51. The vast majority of gays are ABB

but I do think that a solid plurality support Dean right now and they can hardly be blamed. It is pretty difficult to find figures on this since they are virtually never in mainstream polls. I will keep trying but I am unsure I can find anything scientific to back this up.

[blm]

24. Not the point though, was it?

You twisted my post to act like gays were ignored when they weren't, and implied that somehow Kerry was undeserving of gay support while Dean is.


That's shameful, because it was the seminal efforts of lawmakers like Kerry advocating openly for gay issues since the 80s and pursuing advancements throughout the 90s that made it easier for future actions by other politicians.

[dsc]

31. talk about twisting points

You claimed that Dean needed the internent to make up for a lack of footsoldiers. There have literally been dozens of stories of gay footsoldiers for Dean. That, and only that, was my point.

[blm]

61. You implied that I considered gays unworthy of mention.

And you also allowed the real lie in the thread, that Kerry STOLE meetup idea from Dean, to slide just so you can target me with your twisted implication.

[Mikhale]

29. Dare I?

Does a (gay Texan) Kucinich supporter dare jump into this and point out how Dennis supports full marriage rather than "civil unions" for gays and lesbians? Many GLBTs may be willing to settle for half a loaf, but not all of us are willing to compromise yet.

[pruner]

30. Kucinich has also said that…

he'd support a transgender nominee to the SCOTUS.

I don't have a link handy, but John Stewart played a clip of this comment (which was said at a GLBT candidate forum) on the Daily Show a couple of months ago.

transgender nominee to the Supreme Court? Hello!!!!

if Kucinich is a full loaf, than we must be talking about nut bread.

[Mikhale]

33. A wise crack

about nut bread from a guy with a cannabis leaf on his entry. Check out that Dean position on medical marijuana, pruner! It seems as if an AK 47 is a matter of state's rights, but a joint isn't.

[pruner]

39. I don't smoke pot for medical reasons…

I smoke it for pleasure.

and Dean's position on medical marijuana is that he'd order the FDA to study the effects (in cancer patients et al) and follow their recommendation.

that seems like a pretty good position to me.

[Mikhale]

40. Another government study

while sick people suffer. I think you miss the point, pruner. It's not about "pleasure" for many people who could use a, ahh, 'shotgun' that isn't too, ahh, 'high' on the NRA's list of approved weaponry. BTW, I admire your honesty about your usage.

[pruner]

43. one of the FDA's responsibilities is to study the efficacy of…

drugs before granting market approval.

why shouldn't marijuana be subject to the same sort of review?

[dsc]

32. Kucinich did a 180 on this

In 1996, while DOMA was being passed and he was running for Congress, he stated that he saw no need for the repeal of DOMA. He may be singing the right tune now but he wasn't there when it counted.

[Mikhale]

34. Help me remember

had Bill Clinton signed DOMA by 1996? Honest question!

[dsc]

36. Yes

it was passed and signed in 96 which was an election year.

[Mikhale]

38. So Kucinich

was supporting President Clinton's position, yes?

[dsc]

48. Well, one could say that

but he didn't support Clinton on abortion at the time nor on welfare reform to name two issues.

[JohnKleeb]

37. Well you cant deny that hes good on gay issues as well

100's from the HRC, surely you are gonna complain about that. I admit hes not perfect but he never was an anti gay bigot. Besides this isnt about Kucinich nor should it be. Surely if your candiate can envolve on Social Security and I trust that he can, surely mine can envolve on DOMA. BTW cant we just say that: Kerry, Kucinich, and Dean all are great on gay rights. Apparently we cant because some people enjoy fighting and I despise that. I hate to play this role but damnit guys cut the fucking crap and realize shit.

[dsc]

42. I agree

but I do think that on the whole I will take the one who did the right thing, and all that could possibly be done. Your guy is my number two at this point. You should send thank you posts to the several posters who helped that happen (you would be one of those BTW)

[JohnKleeb]

45. Who exactly heh helped

I had no idea he was number two, I am happy that you made a smart decision. I think you should thank them :D not me. Course he did the right thing, what he did in Vermont was the right thing, very brave indeed, hell he had to wear a bulletproof vest as did my guy.

[dsc]

46. not really

the others were rabid Kerry supporters (he had been my number 2) who have so poisoned the well that he went down to second to last.

[JohnKleeb]

47. oh

That sucks. I say you're pretty fair. I try, glad I through my idealistic efforts my Kucinich your number 2. Thanks for being fair.

[dsc]

50. You are just about the best

if not the best, representative of any candidate on this board. You do a terrific job on behalf of Dennis.

[JohnKleeb]

52. Just dont get me pissed off lol

I can be mad as any of you, keep in mind, and I bet my real life temper is just as bad but I tell you this I dont wanna piss people off, not in the mood for it, why? I dont know, I could be an ass I guess but you know, we have this as a common enemy.
The goal I suppose in the end is to send that no good son of a bitch back to Texas or Connecticut. IMO there is good and bad in all the campaigns, just like religions. I've had the same feelings as many of you guys do as well, I am far from perfect and I admit I wish I could fucking yell my head off. Keepin the eyes on a progressive future and getting Bush out of the white house, thats the goal in the end I guess.

[sandnsea]

18. STOLE meetup??

It was launched in 2002 and didn't have anything to do with Howard Dean. How could anybody STEAL meetup??

Besides, Kerry supports are hand-shaking, country fair kind of people. Meetup actually gets in the way of our campaigning. Our style is working great, since we've only been seriously campaigning for a month and we're already about to overtake Dean's work of 8 months.

[SahaleArm]

53. If he doesn't win the nomination...

they'll accuse the Democratic Party of stealing the election as well:)

[gully]

14. dup

*

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. The last line is interesting:

Recent polls by other organizations have shown Dean with a double-digit lead.

Polls schmolls.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. The poll that matters will be taken on January 27.

May the best man (or woman) win.

[killbotfactory]

9. That would be "re-gaining" ground

If you choose to believe this poll over all the other recent ones.

[Duder]

10. Dean will still be there at the end

[indigo32]

13. OMG I never heard that story

thats dangerous.

[Kahuna]

12. As a Clark supporter...

I am pleased too. :evilgrin:

[annxburns]

16. Anyone's race ....

It is wide open. Zogby shows these guys right. It is anybody's race. I still think Clark, Dean, Kerry or Edwards could win.

And Kerry is def picking up some steam

[CMT]

19. wow!! two polls out within days of one another

one showing Dean with a 17-point lead and another with a six-point lead. It certainly is going to be a wild ride!!

[polpilot]

22. Kerry's proudest moment..to be trailing Dean!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04...The New Democratic leader of The NEW Democratic Party.

[Octafish]

26. Did Sen. Kerry run an ad?

The elections are TV-driven, unfortunately. Otherwise, if most people got their information by reading, Kerry would already be ahead, IMO. Oh well, to the tubes! To the tubes!

Hey Trippi! How much money you got left for TV?

Not enough? Ha ha ha ha!!!!

[killbotfactory]

27. He must have

He almost spent as much as Dean this quarter.

Must be his guitar skills that's winning them over.

[DrFunkenstein]

35. The Fifth Beatle?

<>

[MrPeepers]

56. Yep.

He didn't spend as much as Dean, and he's progressing better in the polls than Dean. I think that says something.

Peepers

[killbotfactory]

64. I don't know if you can call that progressing

He's spent almost as much as Dean so far, and went from frontrunner by 20 or so points, to 2nd place by 6 points. But that excludes the other polls which show an approximate 15-17 point lead by Dean.

[pruner]

28. Dean has approximately $5 million more than Kerry (cash on hand)

wtf are you talking about?

[MrPeepers]

55. But does it really matter?

Think about how much money Bush has for the next election. Does it mean he's going to win?

Peepers

[RevolutionStartsNow]

60. Well I hope not, in Bush's case!

But the Dems, being so far behind * in fundraising, are going to need every penny just to be able to fight back. In the primary season, the money will help with organization and advertising, but it also lends the perception of success and helps to convince undecideds that they should get behind you. As it gets later in the race, the more stubborn undecided folks are likely to wait until they see who has the most staying power.

[unfrigginreal]

54. Nice little bump for Kerry...

let's see if he can maintain the momentum now that Dean is back on the airwaves. Don't forget, Dean did not advertise in NH in Sept.

[RogueTrooper]

57. No bump for Kerry

in fact he dropped a point.

Dean 25 (30)
Undecided 23 (22)
Kerry 19 (20)
Clark 11 (10)
Lieberman 8 (5)
Gephardt 7 (6)
Edwards 4 (2)

http://www.suffolk.edu/opa/news/poll_deanleading.html

The numbers are from dKos

Dean's point drop seems to have spread itself around the other candidates and undecided.

[CMT]

58. boy these polls are all over the place

just a couple of days ago a Stan Greenberg poll had Dean with a 17-point lead. other polls between 10-13 points. It is going to be up and down.

[unfrigginreal]

59. Some pretty interesting questions that weren't cited in the piece...

Q16. Does the fact that Howard Dean has no foreign policy experience,
disqualify him from being the next President?
N= 400 100%
Yes ............................................ 18%
No ............................................. 71%
Undecided ...................................... 11%
Refused ........................................ 0%

Q17. Do you consider Wesley Clark a legitimate Democratic candidate?
N= 400 100%
Yes ............................................ 42%
No ............................................. 30%
Undecided ...................................... 27%
Refused ........................................ 1%

Q21. Which Democratic candidate's CAMPAIGN has impressed you the most?
N= 400 100%
Wesley Clark ................................... 7%
Howard Dean .................................... 39%
John Edwards ................................... 4%
Dick Gephardt .................................. 4%
John Kerry ..................................... 13%
Dennis Kucinich (Coo.SIN.Itch) ................. 1%
Joe Lieberman .................................. 5%
Carol Moseley-Braun ............................ 0%
Al Sharpton .................................... 0%
Other .......................................... 0%
Undecided ...................................... 25%
Refused ........................................ 3%

Q34 Who do you expect the next President to be?
DO NOT READ
N= 400 100%
George Bush .................................... 25%
Wesley Clark ................................... 4%
Howard Dean .................................... 16%
John Edwards ................................... 2%
Dick Gephardt .................................. 2%
Bob Graham ..................................... 0%
John Kerry ..................................... 8%
Joe Lieberman .................................. 1%
Other .......................................... 1%
Undecided ...................................... 40%
Refused ........................................ 2%

[Larkspur]

62. I'll be heading to New Hampshire to canvass for Dean next month

I can't make it to Iowa, but now that Clark and Lieberman have pulled out of Iowa and regrouped in New Hampshire, this Connecticut citizen will trek to New Hampshire to canvass for Howard Dean on Nov. 15-16, Dec 13-14, Jan 10-11, and Jan 24-27(NH Primary Day).

Any other Deanocrats joining me in Manchester, NH?