Zogby: Kerry gains 11 points on Dean in NH, Clark hurts Dean only

[DJcairo]

The momentum of former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean’s campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination continues with a 10-point lead over his closest challenger in New Hampshire. Dean earned 30%, compared to Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 20%. Newly-announced contender retired General Wesley Clark placed third in the Granite State at 10%, and may have reduced Dean’s 2-1 lead over Kerry in August.

Zogby International conducted interviews of 512 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International’s headquarters in Utica, NY from September 24-25, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%. Margins are higher in sub-groups. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population.

In August polling in New Hampshire, Dean surged to a 38% - 17% lead over Kerry. In June, Kerry enjoyed a slight lead over Dean, 25% - 22%, and in February, Kerry led Dean, 26% - 13%.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=741

[alexwcovington]

1. Polling numbers are stupid

I'm with Arianna on this one...

[unfrigginreal]

2. Wow! Kerry is really breaking out isn't he...

yeah that's mean but that's what Kerry supporters have come to deserve. Their condescending, sanctimonious attitudes are sickening.

The big news of these articles is always in the first line:

The momentum of former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean’s campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination continues with a 10-point lead over his closest challenger in New Hampshire.

That's the news of this article!

[Closer]

3. You took the words right out

of my keyboard, unfrigginreal! HAHA

[seventhson]

5. The PNAC wet dream: Kerry and Clark 4 more years of DLC

corporate control.

They are afraid of Dean and THAT is why they called Clark in.

Americans are smarter than that.

Clark is a stupid republican fraud and will NOT appeal to Democrats who have been energized by Dean. He will draw off some NEW folks who would give Dean a listen but who have not yet been energized.
But he also attracts the mainstream PNAC/DLC dems who like Kerry.

The strategy, while a smart one IMHO by the right wing democrats, will utlimately fail and this poll shows why.

NOT enough of the people who really are paying attention (the people who vote in primaries) will be energized to vote. Clark already looks simply TERRIBLE. and clark and kerry together only EQUAL the support Dean has right now.

Clark will not improve much and Kerry will continue to tank.

[molly]

20. Ever hear of "republicans for Dean"

[Mass_Liberal]

23. If republicans want to help sink the shrub,

I'm all for their supporting us.

[polpilot]

28. True statesmen like Dean garner support across political lines. Always

have. His repub support in Vermont adds credence that he will garner repub support nationally and win in a landslide.

Dean '04...The Uniter. The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party.

[Nicholas_J]

6. Dean lost eight points From 38 to 30 pojnts

Do you see that...dropping not increasing. The media was windering when Deans momentum would fall, if he would peak...Well today is the day.

Deans dropping by 23 percent in the polls is GOOD news for Kerry supporters. Betcha he falls evenmore after being linked with the most conservative ideas about Social Security and Medicare.

And bad news for Dean...losing is not momentum any more than putting your car in reverse is the best way to get where your are going.

[unfrigginreal]

12. It's ashame that you don't realize how irrelevent Kerry is at this point..

I sincerely hope that when reality seeps in that you will be able to support the Democratic nominee.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. Nope

Not gonna happen. No way. Not ever. Not a chance. No way, no how. Guaranteed he will not vote for Dean. But that's okay, because millions of others will...

[Nicholas_J]

35. But enough will not

Many people will not vote for Dean for a number of reasons. HIs B.S> about the draft has alientated many from the Vietnam generation, revelations about his past statemens about Social Security and Medicare another.

Deans rise in the polls coincided with the massive advertising campaign in August, and virtually all of his support was gained during the period prior to the traditional campaign period. Deans beginning to have his polls slip is coninciding with other candidates revealing info about Deans past records and statements.


Deans support comes largely from the young who do not check into his past, or try to spin excuses for it. Older voters know that what a candidates has done and said in the past is far more likely to reflect what the candidate WILL do than what he says while trying to get your vote.

The other candidates will simply HAMMER at Deans past actions, as opposed to his present statements. He past statement and actions are NOW becoming known to a larger group of the electorate, and Denas recent fall in Zogby's polls date to AFTER Gephardts revelations about Deans Social Security and Medicare positions in the past.


But given that Zogby was the first poll to show Dean in the lead, and is the first poll to show a major drop in support for Dean, the others will likely show following trends.

[Nicholas_J]

30. I will support ANY other DEmocratic candidate

But Howard Dean. If so, I simply do not vote...


ANYONE BUT BUSH or DEAN 2004

[KC21304]

36. I'm sorry to hear that.

I thought we had the high ground here.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Key word: "continues"

con·tin·ue ( P ) Pronunciation Key (kn-tny)

v. con·tin·ued, con·tin·u·ing, con·tin·ues
v. intr.
1. To go on with a particular action or in a particular condition; persist.
2. To exist over a prolonged period; last.

[KC21304]

10. Excuse me !

I don't usually get into these pissing matches, but would you please look at the posts so far in this thread and tell me who has been condescending, sanctimonous and just plain viscious ?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. I always look at the original poster.

What follows is to be expected.

[KC21304]

15. Would you mind pointing out to me exactly

which words in the original post you find to be objectionable ?

And I repeat, look at each post and tell me if the Kerry supporters have been as viscious as #5, and some of the others.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. The individual speaks for themself only.

I will neither defend nor applaud the post you reference. As for this thread, there is a long, long history of flamebait and twisted facts that are strewn behind the author. The linked poll mentions that Clark has cut into Independent support for Dean but shows no evidence that "Clark hurts Dean only," which is part of the thread title. The poll clearly states that the MOE is higher in sub-polls, e.g., Independent voters. What could have been an informative post had to be twisted to fit an agenda. The poll clearly shows that while Kerry has lost 6 points in support over the last seven months, Dean has gained 17 points. Why not let the poll speak for itself? Iow, some posters get more slack than others. There are a handful of posters in every camp that are chronic flamebaiters. These posters should not be construed as being representative of their respective groups as a whole. For example, had you posted this, the tone probably would have been much different. No disrespect meant to you or your candidate of choice.

[Nicholas_J]

31. Lets look at HOW ZOGBY

Interprets the poll:

Pollster John Zogby: "Clark has jumped into third place as a result of his dramatic entry -- but his numbers are not enough yet to put him in the running with Dean and Kerry. It is unlikely that he will get a bounce from the Iowa caucuses, thus he is going to have to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire. Al Gore tried to by pass the first two states and focus on the South in 1988 and it did not work. There is evidence in this poll that Clark has cut into Dean's Independent support, a major reason for Dean's drop from 38% to 30%. Kerry's support is up from August so he is a real contender in his neighboring state. Gephardt is just on the radar screen -- but he will have to do very well in Iowa. Fewer Democratic primary voters are now saying that President Bush is likely to win in 2004. That is a good sign for these candidates."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=741

Its a flat out statement that DEAN is losing INDEPENDENT to Clark.

the operative word is "DROP".

Next statement...

KERRY"S SUPPORT IS UP...Fom AUGUST to SEPTEMBER...and so is a real contender...

OPERAATIVE WOR..."UP"

[molly]

19. Pot, meet kettle

:grr:

[mike_c]

4. I'm beginning to think that Clark and Kucinich are going to split...

...Dean's support. Dean is a centrist who appealed to progressives-- like myself-- because of his early stand against the Bush* administration, and in particular for his outspoken stance against the invasion of Iraq when most other prominant dems were clutching their ankles for shrubya. But in the end he is a moderate/centrist. I suspect that over the coming months the rightmost portion of his early support (and those who were always too far to the right of Dean) will bleed off to Clark. We've already seen that happening. At the same time, I expect more and more progressives to unite behind Kucinich. More and more, that's where I'm headed.

[Nicholas_J]

8. Its been planned that way.

The party sat and took a long hard look and said what can we do to cut into Deans lead. Put in ANOTHER Washington outsider. It looks like it is being effective.

[George_Bonanza]

29. Why not Kerry for a progressive choice?

Because of IWR? You can get clearer on that, you can watch Kerry interviews and threads on this board. I mean, DK's not perfect either. He was a pro-lifer before switching, just a couple of years ago, to a pro-choice stance. I think his heart's in the pro-life camp, but his head is in the pro-choice lot. As you probably already know, Kerry is nearly spotless on the two biggest Green issues: the environment and business. He has a 96% rating from the League of Conservation Voters, lifetime. He has served on the Small Business Committee in the senate, and is the ranking Democrat. Yes, he supports NAFTA, but he has never been one to let profits get ahead of human interests. His record speaks for himself. And finally, he has spent a lot of time on the Foreign Relations Committee, and has always been an advocate of down-sizing the military budget.

[Nicholas_J]

32. Oddly Enough

Dean received B's for his record as Governor, and only was reduced to D's in 1998, by the conservative/libertarian think tank, the CATO INSTITUTE.

None of the other candidates, even Lieberman has EVER recieved a passing grade from this organization

[JohnKleeb]

38. He that is Kerry is fine with me

On Kucinich's pro lifeness I can tolerate it because he was opposed to the death penalty, and etc at the same time. I tell you Kerry or Kucinich would be a victory for progressives, a victory for anyone that is but Bush, and lol with those two we get the second Catholic president. Kerry is a good guy, I can see why progressives support him. I like that he spoke out against nuclear weapons, just as did Kucinich.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DJcairo]

11. What dailykos.com post are you referring to?

[George_Bonanza]

14. Polls are meaningless

But it does show that Kerry ISN'T fading like some here prophesized. That's all I need to know. Go Kerry!

[Sean Reynolds]

17. LOVE how you changed the headline to your liking.

How about posting the real one?

[Andromeda]

18. Uh, last time I checked...

(and math is NOT my best subject) 30% is still more than 20%. Dean lost 8 points and Kerry gained 3, but that still puts Dean 10 points ahead of Kerry. With Clark entering the race he is going to take more votes away from Kerry, all totaled, than he will from Dean because he can no longer claim to be the only war hero with the most military experience.

In June, Kerry was AHEAD of Dean and lost his lead after Dean surged ahead. Don't you know how fluid polls are?

Don't jump to any conclusions because at this point in the campaign things will fluctuate wildly.

[CMT]

21. DJ, your headline is wrong

Kerry didn't gain eleven points in NH. In Zogby poll he went from 17% to 20%, that is a gain of 3-points. Dean went from 38% to 30% and Clark came in and got 10%. Dean still leads by ten-points. Another poll (Marist) done during the same time range has Dean up by 13-points. American Research Group has Dean up by ten.

And even Zogby himself in your link says, "The Dean momentum continues".

Also Dean has as high a favorable rating as Kerry but only about half of the unfavorable rating that Kerry has--that is significant.

So two new polls showing Dean still has double-digit support in the state despite the hoopla regarding Clark.

Good News for Dean.

[liberalmike27]

22. Other poignant Items

Who'd want to put another Bonesman in office, Kerry that is, after the two Bush's were so bad for the country. My God, at the least Kerry will be obliged to them, at the most who knows what he got himself into at Yale, by joining the Skull and Crossbones. As far as I'm concerned, he made a big mistake early in life joining up with that crowd.

Other than that, no one pointed out that Dean led in the national poll with 17%, with Kerry and Clark close behind with 16%. That would be the first time in a national poll Dean led, so I'd say that was pretty significant.

As far as who's votes have been taken, it would seem Lieberman, who was leading the national polls, and now has dropped into the basement or "the wilderness" as it is usually called, lost the most to Clark. I couldn't be happier about that, and I think Lieberman should consider changing party's.

Still, a ten point lead when both of their states' border Dean's, is a pretty strong one, don't expect that to change. Iowa is closer.

Clark, though, is going to lose votes when he is exposed for the plant he is in the race. It is being exposed that he is far more center-right than he is now claiming to be.

[DJcairo]

25. Wow you're right , I didn't know Kerry was in S$B

hahahahahhahahhahaha

[DJcairo]

24. He gained on Dean did he not?

Shouldn't someone acknowledge the fact that Dean's lead has been cut in half and Kerry's support has grown while Dean has fallen? Isn't that news?

Kerry gains three point and Dean loses eight. The mystery around which candidate would be hurt by Clark is over. He hurts Dean.

[CMT]

26. Careful analysis of the poll

indicates that Independents are the ones who were most affected by the Generals arrival. In that respect, yes, Dean was hurt because he was leading Kerry among Independents by a wide margin, now it is just a few points. But he still leads Kerry by a solid margin among Democratic leaning voters. However, these early polls deal more with the hoopla surrounding Clark's announcment. You can guess that once the hoopla dies down that a couple of those points that belonged to Dean will either go back to him or go undecided.

However, I don't think it is clear that Clark necessarily hurts Dean the most. National polls indicate that he is hurting people like Lieberman and Gephardt the most and to a certain extent Kerry, but that basically Dean's numbers are stable or about where they were before Clark got into the race. Also the NBC/WSJ poll indicates that Dean is still leading nationally 17% to Clark's 16%. I don't doubt that they are probably tied or Clark may be even slightly ahead but it is going to be competitive. By the way, that 17% that Dean had in that poll is up from 12% in their previous poll--so even though Clark came on strong--Dean still has gained strength.

[Nicholas_J]

33. What the pollster thinks about his own poll

Is likely to be more inpotrant than what you think:


Pollster John Zogby: "Clark has jumped into third place as a result of his dramatic entry -- but his numbers are not enough yet to put him in the running with Dean and Kerry. It is unlikely that he will get a bounce from the Iowa caucuses, thus he is going to have to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire. Al Gore tried to by pass the first two states and focus on the South in 1988 and it did not work. There is evidence in this poll that Clark has cut into Dean's Independent support, a major reason for Dean's drop from 38% to 30%. Kerry's support is up from August so he is a real contender in his neighboring state. Gephardt is just on the radar screen -- but he will have to do very well in Iowa. Fewer Democratic primary voters are now saying that President Bush is likely to win in 2004. That is a good sign for these candidates."


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=741

You are a Dean supporter, and therefore, have every reason to interpret the poll in a light favoring Dean. The pollster however has no such ax to grind, and their opinion likely to be more...unbiased.

The above is ZOGBY's interpretation of a ZOGBY poll.

[dsc]

39. actually he may not have

The MOE is 4.5% which means any change between 0 and 9 in Dean's lead actually falls within the margin of error. Also I very much remember no one on your side showing credence in the August results in real time but now that those results help you they all the sudden are good as gold. BTW I was one Dean supporter who discounted the poll then and still do now. I don't think Dean was at 38 back in August and thus I don't think he lost nearly as much as is being claimed now.

[dsc]

34. It should be noted that

other than Clark, the three leaders are within the MOE of where they were. Admittedly Dean is barely within the MOE but he is within the MOE. It should be noted that many Kerry supporters and I figured the August poll was not accurate. Funny how all the Kerry supporters forget that thought now.

[kwolf68]

37. Good lord

Another thread where the Dean people show what tools they can be sometimes.

Dean fan is now opining about the “Republicans For Dean” and how that shows his “talents.” As if appealing to those who hold our positions in contempt is somehow “good.”

Then they call Kerry supporters tons of names (sanctimonious condescending, and vicious) that they themselves do.

They level of hypocrisy and outright hatefulness is better left for the Rush Limbaugh show as opposed to DU.

Dean people would spin it if Dean said he wanted to nuke the world. My wash machine doesn’t spin as much as these apologists.

[dsc]

40. Please site where I did any of that.

I mean now not some time later. If not you owe me and most Dean supporters an apology.