Study: Winning Democrats appeal to rich and poor alike

[Nicholas_J]

Using census data on education, income and other factors, Scala has divided the state into working-class communities like the old mill cities of Manchester and Rochester and "liberal elite" communities like the college towns of Hanover and Durham.

Based on how well candidates did in each town in the past three primaries, he concluded that Democrats who appeal equally to both groups in New Hampshire are much more likely to eventually win the nomination than candidates who appeal mainly to one faction...

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean faces the opposite problem, said Rich Killion, director of the Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communications at Franklin Pierce College.

"Howard Dean really has been speaking to the elite class, since they were so openly and adamantly opposed to the war with Iraq," he said.

Though Dean was tied with Sen. John Kerry in Franklin Pierce's latest poll, Kerry's support is spread more evenly across the state, Killion said.

Nearly a third of those polled were undecided, showing that no candidate has yet demonstrated the potential to be "a slam-dunk who would hit across the two spectrums," Killion said.

http://www.primarymonitor.com/news/stories2003/051803_primarystudy_2003.shtml

[tsipple]

1. Why bring up Iraq?

Nicholas, although you have a Kerry avatar, I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Iraq. It certainly doesn't help John Kerry in Democratic primaries and caucuses. John Kerry is a decent and honorable Democrat, and I wish you'd stop doing a disservice to him. Assuming you do indeed support him. I'm beginning to wonder.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Kerry is in step with the nation

Kerry is in step with the nation, even if Dean supporters feel that he is out of step with them.

[tsipple]

3. Well, let's try again...

I'm trying to offer Kerry (and Kerry supporters) some free advice here. If you keep bringing up Iraq you will lose. Supporters of the Iraq War within the Democratic Party have a great candidate to vote for: Joe Lieberman. Kerry is right near the top of my list among Democrats, but not if he (and his "supporters") keep reminding me of his Iraq vote.

So, free advice: talk about all the great stuff Kerry has done and would do. Frankly I think John Kerry is presently ill served by his "supporters" here at DU. ("Supporters" in quotes because I really can't tell if they are or not. I really wonder.)