It's a three way battle between Clark, Edwards and Kerry

[Feanorcurufinwe]

for the 'Stop-Dean' mantle. Large numbers of Democrats are more impressed by Dean's campaign than by Dean himself. Hence surges by Clark in New Hampshire and Kerry and Edwards in Iowa.

Clark's rise in NH was at the expense of Kerry, but the latest ARG poll shows Kerry's slide has stopped and he has been gaining for the last 4 days -- probably as news from Iowa has folks who counted him out of the race starting to give him a second look. Edwards too, is finally showing some motion in the latest poll. And 'Undecided' is finally showing some downward motion...

My prediction: either 'Stop-Dean' sentiment coalesces around one of these three before or immediately after Feb. third, or we'll be counting delegates all the way to an open convention...

[sandnsea]

1. Kerry will swing fast in NH

They know him, they don't need to give him a second look. If they think the rest of the country likes him as much as they do, they'll swing right back in his corner in a hurry. We just need to keep it going in Iowa and have a close race, no matter where the actual numbers line up. That will let northeasterners know a Massachusetts liberal CAN appeal to Iowa even, and that'll make all the difference.